What to watch: Week 11 college football viewing guide
Every week throughout the season we’ll give you a college football viewing guide by highlighting the five best games of the coming weekend. We will pick those five games against the spread and highlight some other matchups that caught our eye from a betting perspective.
We're entering the home stretch of the college football regular season.
The College Football Playoff picture is starting to crystalize with five remaining undefeated Power Five teams and six others with only one loss. It's the final season of the four-team CFP, so there isn't much margin for error at this point in the season.
Many of the games played this weekend will have CFP and conference title implications, while plenty of other teams are fighting for bowl eligibility. We should be in for another action-packed weekend.
(Note: All times ET, odds from BetMGM)
No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State
Time: Noon | TV: Fox | Line: UM -4.5 | Total: 45.5
With so much off-field controversy swirling, will Michigan be able to stay focused and keep winning on the field? The Wolverines are undefeated, but it’s fair to say they have not faced many challenges, if any, to this point in the season. The strength of schedule has been weak, but Michigan hasn’t even come close to losing a game. The average margin of victory in nine wins for the Wolverines is 34 points per game. It’s been pure domination at every level. Will that continue at Beaver Stadium in a game with Big Ten title and College Football Playoff implications?
Penn State needs to win this game to keep both its CFP and Big Ten title hopes alive. The Nittany Lions started the season 6-0 before losing at Ohio State in a game that featured a brutal offensive performance. Since then, PSU squeaked out a home win over Indiana before an encouraging blowout road win over Maryland. PSU’s defense has been one of the nation’s best, but the offense has underwhelmed. However, there were some signs of life on offense last week vs. the Terps. Will that carry over against the vaunted Wolverines defense?
Nick Bromberg: Michigan -4.5, Sam Cooper: Penn State +4.5
No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: Fox | Line: UW -9.5 | Total: 53.5
Washington is one of seven remaining undefeated teams in the country and is firmly in the national championship hunt. The Huskies had a triumphant home win over Oregon last month, but have been inconsistent in the weeks since. They barely got past Arizona State and Stanford before going to USC and winning a 52-42 shootout last week. Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. and the offense performed at a high level in the win over the Trojans, but concerns about the defense remain. Utah will present a much different look on both sides of the ball, but especially with its physicality on defense.
Utah has no margin for error if it wants to win a third consecutive Pac-12 title. The Utes have endured a slew of injuries but are still in contention for the conference crown with three regular season games to play. They lost 35-6 at home to Oregon two weeks ago, but followed that up by destroying Arizona State, 55-3. This week, Kyle Whittingham’s team gets the chance to shake up the conference race while also handing Washington its first loss of the year as the Huskies fight for a CFP berth.
Nick: Washington -9.5, Sam: Utah +9.5
No. 13 Tennessee at No. 14 Missouri
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: CBS | Line: UT -1.5 | Total: 58.5
Missouri and Tennessee have very little hope of catching Georgia in the SEC East, but these are still two of the better teams in the conference this season. Missouri hasn’t had a winning season since 2018, so the fact that it is 7-2 and ranked No. 14 with a chance to get to a major bowl game is a testament to the work Eli Drinkwitz has done building the program. The Tigers put up a heck of a fight last week in a 30-21 loss to Georgia and now will be challenged with bringing that same level of intensity at home against Tennessee.
Missouri has some dynamic weapons on offense, including receiver Luther Burden and running back Cody Schrader, but they will face another tough challenge in the Tennessee defense. The Vols aren’t as explosive on offense as they were last year, but they are still finding ways to win games. UT has won five of its last six, but has lost two of its three true road games on the season, including blowing a 13-point halftime lead last month at Alabama. The next week, UT was able to beat Kentucky in Lexington. Will that road success carry over to Saturday’s game in Columbia?
Nick: Missouri +1.5, Sam: Missouri +1.5
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia
Time: 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN | Line: UGA -10.5 | Total: 58.5
Ole Miss has an enormous opportunity on Saturday night in Athens. The Rebels have played in some big games under Lane Kiffin but they have rarely gone according to plan. Earlier this season, Kiffin’s group went into Tuscaloosa and lost to Alabama in a top-15 matchup. Since then, the Rebels have won five straight, including a thrilling 38-35 win over Texas A&M last weekend. Ole Miss had more than 500 yards of offense, but needed a blocked field goal in the final minute to avoid overtime.
To beat Georgia, Kiffin’s team will need to take its level of play up a notch. The Bulldogs, of course, are the two-time defending national champions and enter Saturday at 9-0 and No. 2 in the latest CFP rankings. Georgia had a few close calls early in the year but has been rolling over the last month with three double-digit wins and then a hard-fought 30-21 victory over Missouri last week. Along the way, first-year starting QB Carson Beck has gotten better and better even with star tight end Brock Bowers sidelined. UGA will need another big effort from Beck to keep the program’s 26-game winning streak alive.
Nick: Georgia -10.5, Sam: Georgia -10.5
USC at No. 6 Oregon
Time: 10:30 p.m. | TV: Fox | Line: UO -15.5 | Total: 73.5
Oregon is looking more and more like a national championship-caliber team. The Ducks started the season 5-0 before dropping the heartbreaker to Washington in Seattle. Since then, the Ducks have rattled off three straight wins, including blowouts over Utah (35-6) and Cal (63-19). If the Ducks want a rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 title game, they have to keep winning. And if they keep winning, they have a very good chance to reach the CFP. That quest continues with a visit from the reeling USC Trojans.
USC has lost three of its last four games after a 6-0 start to the season. The Trojans lost 48-20 at Notre Dame and then lost 34-32 at home to Utah. They rebounded by beating Cal by a point in Berkeley, 50-49, but then followed that up with a 52-42 home loss to Washington. After allowing 101 points combined over the last two games, head coach Lincoln Riley finally pulled the plug and fired Alex Grinch, his longtime defensive coordinator. Will it make a difference as the Trojans travel to Eugene to face Bo Nix and the high-flying Oregon offense?
Nick: USC +15.5, Sam: Oregon -15.5
Head-to-head ATS: Nick: 22-28-2, Sam: 32-18-2
Week 11 best bets
Texas Tech at No. 16 Kansas (-4): I faded Kansas last week off the Oklahoma win and it backfired. This is more of a play on Texas Tech, a team getting healthier that I think is better than its record. The Red Raiders need to win two of their final three to get to a bowl and one of those games is a trip to Texas. This is pretty much a must-win for TTU and I think this one goes down to the wire. Pick: Texas Tech +4
Georgia Tech at Clemson (-14.5): Clemson got a much-needed win over Notre Dame last week, but it wasn't like the Tigers were impressive on offense. They averaged 4.1 yards per play and scored 14 of their points off a muffed punt and pick-six. Clemson is 3-10 ATS in the last three seasons as a double-digit favorite vs. Power Five opponents. Georgia Tech has an explosive offense and should be able to stay within the number. Pick: Georgia Tech +14.5
Maryland (-2.5) at Nebraska: Maryland looks like a team that has quit. Nebraska is coming off an ugly loss to Michigan State and has the chance to clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016. The Huskers are the much more physical team with the better defense. I'd prefer to get +3, but I'll still take the points. Pick: Nebraska +2.5
Northwestern at Wisconsin (-10.5): Wisconsin is still being overvalued. The Badgers have lost three of their last four and could still be without RB Braelon Allen, by far their best player on offense. Even if Allen returns, I doubt he'd be fully healthy. UW just doesn't have the offensive firepower to win by margin, even against Northwestern. Pick: Northwestern +10.5
West Virginia at No. 17 Oklahoma (-13): Oklahoma and Oklahoma State combined for nearly 1,000 yards last week, but the 27-24 final score didn't quite reflect that. There were four total turnovers and five combined turnovers on downs that kept the game under the total. I don't envision that here. Back at home, Oklahoma should put up a pretty big number against a WVU team that has scored at least 34 points in its last four games. Pick: Over 58
Last week: 4-3
Season to date: 36-27
