Week 7 Fantasy power rankings and full slate guide: Joe Mixon is the week's top RB play
Here, I’ll run through every Week 7 game and rank them from best to worst from a fantasy perspective. We’ll also look at betting lines to project possible winners and game script, as well as examining one key matchup to watch in each game.
1. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
Total: 57.5
Favorite: Chiefs (-6)
Week 7’s highest projected scoring game comes in a meeting between two of the best teams in the AFC. The Chiefs got their first loss of the season last week against New England, but not for lack of trying. They came roaring back after a slow start and only lost by a late field goal. The Bengals have two troubling losses to good teams this year in Carolina and Pittsburgh but are good enough on offense to hang with anyone. The two will meet up in an “everyone in the pool” -style game for fantasy football.
The Chiefs defense is starting to show some mild promise but have still allowed the most passing yards this year. They also got absolutely trashed on the ground by Sony Michel in Week 6. The Bengals defense looked like it could be promising but that hasn’t come to fruition. Despite talent up front, the team ranks 25th in sack rate and has faced the third-most completions in the NFL. If you have a Bengal or Chief in fantasy, you’re playing them. Break ties in favor of this game. Kansas City still looks like the superior team and could get Cincinnati without Darqueze Dennard or Shawn Williams in the secondary. Both missed portions of Week 7 practices. The Chiefs should take this one and cover the spread.
Matchup to watch
Joe Mixon has good odds to finish as the top-scoring back in Week 7. A week after Sony Michel trampled them, the Chiefs run defense will have to contend with Mixon, and his 11 targets and 85 percent share of his team’s rush attempts over the last two games. Mixon is operating on a true workhorse level right now, locked-in RB1 usage. With his workload secure, he’ll run through a defense that allows 5.32 yards per carry and the second-most catches (46) to running backs.
The Chiefs middle of the field defense could also be exploited by C.J. Uzomah. The Bengals clear starter at tight end, he ranked fifth at the position in total air yards last week (68) and third in routes run (38) while taking 65.8 percent of his snaps in the slot. He’s a TE1 play this week against a Chiefs team allowing the most yards (550) to the position.
2. New York Giants (1-5) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4)
Total: 54
Favorite: Falcons (-5.5)
A meeting of two poor teams with subpar defenses but loaded skill-position spots is the perfect melting pot for fantasy success. The Falcons can be trusted at home to make bank. They’ve cleared 30 points in each of their four games in Atlanta. The Giants offense is not at all in the circle of trust but the Falcons defense is so poor, it should allow the unit to look more like the group that finally amassed 30 points for the first time since 2015 just weeks ago. Even secondary players like Evan Engram (set to return) and Sterling Shepard should find success in this potential shootout.
The Falcons are one of 10 teams to allow three-plus touchdowns to tight ends this year and their slot corner, Brian Pool,e gives up a 72 percent catch rate. The Giants offensive line is a mess, ranking 32nd in Football Outsiders adjusted line yards and top-8 in quarterback hits allowed. However, the Falcons don’t provide much pass rush and cede 4.51 yards per carry and an NFL-high 53 catches to running backs.
Matchup to watch
Ito Smith is clearly in focus as a flex play. He is legitimately good and makes defenders miss. He has three touchdowns in as many weeks and continues to show why the team wants him to have a place in the backfield with Devonta Freeman now on IR. Tevin Coleman has not really added much to his touches, falling under 3.7 yards per carry in every game since Week 3. He’s never too much of a threat for passing game work either, as he’s had four catches or fewer in all games this season. The Giants have allowed nine total touchdowns to running backs this season, tied with the Chiefs for second-most in the NFL.
3. Cleveland Browns (2-3-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)
Total: 50.5
Favorite: Buccaneers (-3)
Each of these offenses has flashed moments of major promise but we’d certainly call the Bucs the more established unit. Tampa Bay quarterbacks haven’t finished lower than QB8 in any game this season, outside of the debacle in Chicago. Jameis Winston was legitimately fantastic in his 2018 starting debut, aside from his patented brain-fart turnovers. Winston finished with a completion rate 18 percent over expectation against Atlanta, per Next Gen Stats; the best among Week 6 passers. His viability keeps the offense afloat but he also spreads the ball around. Nine players caught a pass and no one saw double-digit targets.
Baker Mayfield should see his breakout game come this week. The Bucs rank 32nd in completion rate allowed, touchdown rate, passing yards per game and touchdown rate. Mayfield makes his fair share of mistakes but he’ll face a defense that has just a single pick on the season and just fired their defensive coordinator.
Matchup to watch
The Buccaneers have allowed nearly every wideout they’ve faced to slice them up and down the field this season. No receiver needs a slump-buster more than Jarvis Landry. He has not cleared 70 yards in any of Baker Mayfield’s three starts despite seeing 10 targets in each contest. Landry still ranks top-10 with a 27 percent share of his team’s targets. Positive regression should hit this week in Tampa and Landy makes for a fine buy-low and DFS contrarian play.
4. Los Angeles Rams (6-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5)
Total: 52.5
Favorite: Rams (-10)
While this game became much more interesting after C.J. Beathard delivered a strong Monday night performance against the Green Bay Packers, the Rams are still heavy 10-point road favorites. We know the LA offense has the potential to smoke any opponent they face. The real question lies with San Francisco. The Rams defense ranks 26th in yards per carry allowed to running backs and 23rd in explosive pass play rate allowed. The team has fatal flaws defensively amid injuries in the secondary.
The 49ers still rank 13th in points and yards per drive despite the quarterback change. Beathard has shown he can be trusted and could dial up more big plays for Marquise Goodwin, who smoked the Packers in Week 6. Still the NFL’s leader in yards per carry (6.8), Matt Breida should be able to slash through this front seven that isn’t all that concerned with stopping the run. This could easily become a high-scoring game.
Matchup to watch
With slot maven Cooper Kupp set to miss a few weeks, Robert Woods will slide inside to replace him for the time being. That will bring Josh Reynolds into the starting mix at right wideout. Woods will get a juicy matchup with the non-Richard Sherman defenders in the 49ers secondary. Teams have completely avoided the future Hall of Famer at left corner this season. Sherman has been targeted on just eight percent of his routes covered, the lowest rate among all cornerbacks. With Reynolds likely doing battle with Sherman, he is a risky deep sleeper play. Woods could be in line for one of his best games of the season as a primary slot receiver, while Brandin Cooks at left wideout could torch Ahkello Witherspoon.
5. Chicago Bears (3-2) at New England Patriots (4-2)
Total: 49.5
Favorite: Patriots (-2.5)
The Bears are 2.5-point home dogs against the Patriots despite showing offensive firepower in each of their last two games. New England has found their groove again, crushing the Dolphins and Colts before handing the high-flying Chiefs their first loss. Chicago being spotted less than a field goal shows the respect they’ve earned this year. What will be interesting is whether the Bears continue with a spread offense based around Tarik Cohen or try to control the clock with Jordan Howard. The last two weeks it’s been all the latter.
Cohen leads all running backs to have played three-plus games this year with 18.2 percent of his snaps taken in the slot. He’s also been targeted on 28 percent of his overall routes run this year. Howard has been, whether by design or by circumstance, not much of a factor with 25 carries and no catches in the Bears last two games. Allen Robinson was downgraded to a DNP at practice on Thursday and his availability would impact the Bears options when trying to spread the field. This game should get high-scoring and potentially push its total, which dropped slightly from the 50 it opened up as.
Matchup to watch
The Bears need Khalil Mack healthy for this one. He was hobbling with an ankle injury in their loss to the Miami Dolphins and their defense subsequently fell apart late to a Brock Osweiler-led offense. Mack did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday this week. If he’s not out there, the Bears defense begins to slip back to ordinary status. With Mack, the Bears have a shot to exploit an area of weakness for Tom Brady this season. Brady completes just 47.5 percent of his passes when under pressure this year — 20th in the NFL, according to PFF.
6. New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
Total: 50
Favorite: Ravens (-2.5)
The Saints have rattled off four straight wins since getting upset by the Bucs in Week 1. The Ravens let the division-rival Bengals and Browns get the best of them in two contests, but have otherwise looked like a true contender in the AFC. We get your classic defense vs. offense matchup in this spot. The Ravens are No. 2 in adjusted sack rate this year, allow the second-fewest passing yards per game and give up a league-low 73.1 passer rating. You can’t run on them either, as they give up just 3.58 yards per carry and the fewest (85.5) total yards to running backs. With the Saints outside of the dome, it will take the best possible effort from their star players to secure this one.
Two factors should help Drew Brees and company: using Michael Thomas in the slot and Alvin Kamara as an outlet receiver. Thomas already leads the NFL by seeing a target on 33.9 percent of his routes run from the slot. Lining up there would put him in the crosshairs of Tavon Young, who is the lone Ravens corner to allow a passer rating north of 89 (119.3) this year. Despite his one-week blip and a bye, Kamara still ranks seventh in the NFL in routes run and third in receiving yards among running backs.
Matchup to watch
Following the targets and air yards volume didn’t lead to fantasy success with John Brown last week, as the positive regression truck backed up for his teammate Michael Crabtree instead. However, Brown’s bounce back game could come in this spot after just 6-81 over his last two games. As the Ravens primary right wide receiver, Brown will run most of his routes against Ken Crawley, who has been one of the worst corners in the NFL this season. Teams have dunked on Crawley to the tune of 15.4 yards per catch, four touchdowns and a 141.7 passer rating, per PFF.
7. Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)
Total: 45
Favorite: Eagles (-5)
The Panthers travel farther up the east coast one week after a bad road loss to Washington. Carolina barely escaped losing to the Giants back in Week 5, so it’s fair to wonder just how good this team really is. Their biggest issue in Week 6 was getting down early, as a fumbled punt by D.J. Moore and some mashing Adrian Peterson-runs led to two quick-strike passing touchdowns from Alex Smith and a 14-0 deficit. The Panthers have been run-heavy this year and haven’t shown the stripes of a team that can play well from behind. How the script of this contest unfolds will be dictated by who wins the battle up front.
Giving up pressure has been a theme for the Eagles offensive line this year, but Carson Wentz continues to thrive despite it. He has a 95.0 passer rating when under pressure, according to Pro Football Focus, and was particularly dynamic with heat around him last week. Carolina ranks 18th in adjusted sack rate but they’ll need to be better in this spot. On the other side, the Eagles have the personnel to really harass the quarterback and while the Panthers offensive line has played above their expectation this year, Newton does struggle under pressure with a 32.7 passer rating.
Matchup to watch
Cam Newton’s Next Gen Stats expected completion percentage is 62.8 percent which is up from prior seasons (league-low 54.6 percent in 2016) but is still eighth-lowest in the NFL this year. However, unlike previous years, he’s outperforming it by 3.1 percent (sixth-best among QBs). Carolina has the skeleton of a good pass game but they need big plays. Week 7 presents a solid opportunity for them to chase such plays. The Eagles rank 20th in allowing explosive passing plays and have bled production to wideouts, giving up the second-most yards (1,197) and most receptions (96) to the position. Not only should Devin Funchess be in position to have a big game but please, Carolina, let your exciting young receivers play. The Panthers stuck with D.J. Moore through two costly mistakes last week, using him on 45 percent of the snaps but they rolled out Curtis Samuel on a measly three plays after a strong Week 5 showing. That needs to change.
8. Tennessee Titans (3-3) “at” Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
Total: 45
Favorite: Chargers (-6.5)
The Titans come into Week 7 after just getting embarrassed at home against the Ravens. Marcus Mariota offered up another poor performance and absorbed 11 sacks. Even getting 6.5 points in this London-based contest, it’s impossible to have any level of confidence in Tennessee right now. The Chargers are hot, winning two straight games by an average of 14 points. The offense is rolling with Philip Rivers coming into Week 7 top-five in touchdown rate, adjusted yards per attempt and passer rating. Melvin Gordon is operating at an elite workhorse level, averaging career-highs in yards per carry (5.1) and catches per game (five). The defense is also coming around, shutting down the Raiders and Broncos in their last two games. It’s hard to find any edges the Titans have in this game. Tennessee’s defense will need to outperform the type of pressure they’ve put on in prior weeks, as they rank 25th in sack rate.
Matchup to watch
Corey Davis has the volume of a WR1 but plays in a far too dysfunctional of an offense to be considered as anything more than a possible WR3 option. His 39 percent share of his team’s air yards is fifth-highest among wide receivers and his 30 percent target share is fourth-highest. With a non-functional quarterback and broken offensive environment, Davis just can’t consistently turn that into production. He’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Casey Hayward, who is beginning to turn his 2018 season around. Hayward allows a 130.1 passer rating into his coverage, well north of the 53.4 and 58.6 marks that made him a Pro Bowler in his first two seasons with the Chargers. However, over the last two weeks, he’s shadowed Amari Cooper and Antonio Callaway and allowed a measly three catches for 19 yards. He might just be back.
9. Minnesota Vikings (3-2-1) at New York Jets (3-3)
Total: 46.5
Favorite: Vikings (-3.5)
The Jets welcome the Vikings here in Week 7 and are getting 3.5 points at home. New York dropped 42 on the Colts last week on the back of Sam Darnold’s best game of 2018. He figures to slow down against a Vikings pass defense that has allowed fewer than 290 passing yards to every opponent outside of the Rams TNF eruption against them.
The Vikings remain hot on offense. Kirk Cousins hasn’t completed fewer than 70 percent of his passes since Week 1 and has a passer rating north of 109 in three of his last four games. Minnesota might just get Dalvin Cook back as well, and are coming off a season-high 195 rushing yards as a team. The Jets are middle of the pack in passing yards (22nd) and total yards allowed to running backs (20th) per game this season.
Matchup to watch
The Jets have outscored their last two opponents by 26 combined points. One of the biggest factors was Sam Darnold’s deep passing improvement. Over his last two games, Darnold managed a passer rating of 105.8 on his deep throws, per Pro Football Focus. That’s compared to a 43.3 rating over his first four. Getting Robby Anderson integrated into the passing game gave the rookie passer a needed weapon to use downfield. With dynamic, big slot receiver Quincy Enunwa down for multiple weeks, Anderson will need to remain a focal point. The Vikings rank 30th in the league in explosive pass rate allowed. If their defense continues to duffer lapses in the vertical game, Darnold could keep up his hot streak.
10. Detroit Lions (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-2)
Total: 47
Favorite: Lions (-2.5)
Not only is does this game come with the seventh-highest total of the week at 47 points, the Dolphins are getting a mere 2.5 points at home to the Lions. Of course, the record-gap here keeps the game close, but Vegas also appears to be buying into Brock Osweiler as a non-disaster replacement. The veteran came in last week and posted 380 and three scores with a pair of picks. That looks nice but it’s worth noting that 268 of his passing yards came after the catch against the Bears. Those big plays will be tough to replicate. While Detroit doesn’t have a great record, they’ve flashed on both sides of the ball. They really came on defensively as they inched toward their bye and the team leads the NFL with a 10.9 adjusted sack rate. If the team brings that heat to Miami, Osweiler could easily turn back into a pumpkin.
Matchup to watch
Both backfields will be in focus. Kerryon Johnson needs to be the Lions clear do-it-all lead back, ranking eighth in the NFL in rushing success rate among backs with 40 plus carries. Unlike the other two members of his backfield, he can contribute in both the run and pass game, so he’s not a total tipoff to the defense. The Dolphins have been run on 177 times this year, fourth-most in the NFL.
Frank ripped off a 100-yard effort against the Chicago Bears vaunted defense in Week 6 and has actually been sneaky good all season. According to Sharp Football Stats, Frank Gore actually ranks No. 3 just behind Todd Gurley in rushing success rate in 2018. Gore should lead the team in carries against a Lions team that allows the third-highest yards per carry figure this year at 5.2 a pop. At the other end, Kenyan Drake has started to see steady passing game work, earning 17 targets and running 54 routes over his last two games. Drake is a volatile flex play but the Lions allow 10 yards per catch to running backs.
11. Houston Texans (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)
Total: 42.5
Favorite: Jaguars (-5)
The Jaguars come into this game after an embarrassing 40-7 loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys. Jacksonville gets to blow off their frustrations by teeing off against a Houston Texans team that needed two Nathan Peterman picks to beat the woebegone Bills in their stadium. The Texans are only getting five points in Jacksonville but you could easily see the home team taking this one by a touchdown or more. While the Jaguars have their flaws and have been largely uncompetitive for two-straight weeks, the Texans issues go deeper to the core of their team with one of the most dysfunctional lines ever assembled. Not only does Houston rank 25th in Football Outsiders adjusted line yards (run blocking measure), they’ve allowed a league-high 65 quarterback hits. That’s 18 more than the second-highest team.
Matchup to watch
T.J. Yeldon’s carries have been on the decline in each of his last three games but he’s still running well, averaging over five yards per carry in his last two. The issue has been game scripts, as Jacksonville has lost their last two contests by a combined 49 points. Yeldon’s receiving work offers a pretty solid floor to count on, as he’s averaged 5 catches for 48 yards dating back to Week 3. With Jacksonville a five-point favorite over a broken Houston team, he has good odds at a 100-total yard effort here in Week 7.
12. Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-5)
Total: 43
Favorite: Colts (-7.5)
The Bills walk into Indianapolis down their starting quarterback. Josh Allen is set to miss multiple weeks with UCL damage to his throwing arm. After Nathan Peterman literally threw their Week 6 win away by tossing a pair of picks in just about a minute of game time (including one that went back for the game-winning Texans touchdown) the Bills could not realistically start him this week. As such, they’ll turn to Derek Anderson, just signed off the street eight days ago. He resumes the job of NFL quarterback on an offense that has not done anything well consistently to this point. The Colts rank 11th in adjusted sack rate and give up just 3.8 yards per carry. Buffalo could get absolutely smoked in this spot.
Matchup to watch
The Bills aren’t exactly a run defense we’re looking to target every week, giving up under four yards per carry and ranking 13th in total yards allowed to running backs. Yet, If Indianapolis is set to rock Buffalo at home in Week 7, they should get the game script needed to run the ball. Marlon Mack returned from injury and took his team-high 12 carries for 89 yards. He was a clear inside banger, gaining 54 yards on seven runs up the middle. Mack was out-snapped 30 to 24 by pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines. That should flip this week if the Bills do indeed cede a big lead to the Colts. Mack is a volatile runner, who ranked 45th in rushing success rate out of 53 backs with 60-plus carries in 2017, per Sharp Football Stats, but he should get enough volume in Week 7 to even out.
13. Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-2)
Total: 42
Favorite: Washington (-1.5)
Washington currently sits atop the NFC East with a .600-win percentage, while Dallas is tied with Philadelphia at 3-3. Neither of these teams is a proven entity just yet but both come into Week 7 off resounding wins over Carolina and Jacksonville. These division rivals approach playing offense quite similarly. Dallas and Washington are two of the slowest teams, ranking bottom-eight in pace (seconds per play). Washington ranks 24th in pass play percentage (55.8 percent) and Dallas ranks 31st (52.5 percent). This game opened with the second-lowest total (42) of Week 7, which seems like a safe bet, and it might be done in two and a half hours. Don’t go chasing too many big offensive performances in this spot, despite some solid numbers from each passing game in Week 6.
Matchup to watch
Washington offers Alex Smith middle of the road protection, as they’ve given up 28 quarterback hits (12th) while the offense ranks 20th in sack rate allowed (7.3 percent). The line blocks well in the run game though, ranking inside the top-seven in power run success rate, per Football Outsiders. The Cowboys defense is playing above their heads this season and it starts in the front seven. Even without Sean Lee, Dallas allows the second-lowest yards per carry (3.32) to running backs this year. Young linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch have made the leap. The pass rush is also a major factor in their solid defensive performance in 2018, ranking ninth in adjusted sack rate. Whoever gains the edge in this matchup when Washington has the ball will have an inside edge on winning this contest.
