Week 7 Fantasy Football Booms and Busts: Lamar Jackson has Ravens flying high

The NFL's weekly model is unpredictable chaos. Week 7 understands. The Patriots shocked the Bills and sent a shockwave through Survival pools. The Colts rolled up 456 yards of offense against Cleveland's absurd defense, the same unit that shut down San Francisco last week. Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs couldn't score touchdowns against the Bears.

Some of this stuff, you can't see it coming.

But we have to dissect Baltimore's 38-6 throttling of Detroit. Everyone knew Baltimore was one of the primary contenders entering this week, but the Lions were legitimate media and fan darlings, off to a 5-1 start and gathering momentum.

Should we have seen Baltimore's explosion coming? Or maybe it was a case of an offense finally clicking under a new system, the Todd Monken scheme finally clicking with its players.

Watch the snaps with me; Baltimore did anything it wanted. On so many of the pass plays, the Ravens were running wide open. On other plays, Lamar Jackson bought extra time with his mobility. And on many snaps, the Baltimore blocking kept the Detroit pass rush at bay. Pitch-and-catch, good work if you can get it.

Jackson was off to a decent fantasy start entering this week (four appearances in the top 10 this season), but he's in line for his first QB1 game of the year. He completed 21-of-27 passes for 357 yards and three scores, a perfect game. He also tacked on 36 rushing yards and a fourth score. Detroit didn't force a single negative play against Jackson — zero sacks, zero turnovers. This was a spotless performance. Jackson still has league-winner among his plausible range of outcomes.

Jackson and Monken did a superb job spreading the ball around, targeting nine different players in all. Perhaps that had something to do with all the wide-open receivers; Detroit never knew which punch was coming next. Mark Andrews (4-63-2) scored a couple of touchdowns, Zay Flowers (4-75-0) just missed scoring on a 46-yard breakaway and even notorious non-catcher Gus Edwards turned a short flip into an 80-yard reception. Sometimes it's just your day.

Edwards also tacked on a 14-64-1 line on the ground, rewarding anyone who had to call his number during this messy bye week. Justice Hill only had five touches, but even they went for 48 yards.

The width of Baltimore's passing tree held back some of the ancillary pieces. Nelson Agholor had a 12-yard touchdown catch, but that was his only target. Odell Beckham Jr. (5-49-0, seven targets) and Rashod Bateman (2-36-0, three targets) are still best left on waiver wires or fantasy benches. The Baltimore offense is still centered around three players: Jackson, Andrews and Flowers. Your weekly call on Edwards depends on the depth of your backfield.

If the Ravens could do this against a Detroit defense that had been playing well, imagine what might be coming. Arizona and Seattle are next on the schedule, neither team boasting a plus defense. And if you dare to dream about playoff weeks, Baltimore hosting Miami in Week 17 could be a pinball special.

Garbage time proves fruitful for Lions

Give the Detroit passing game a Mulligan for this showing. Jared Goff was sacked five times and rarely looked comfortable. Much of his production came in garbage time.

At least the main Detroit skill players filled the box score, miraculous for a team that lost 38-6. Jahmyr Gibbs looked the part, rolling up 11-68-1 on the ground and a juicy 9-58-0 through the air. Even when David Montgomery eventually comes back, Gibbs looks like a man ready for 15-plus touches a week. Amon-Ra St. Brown did what he could with a whopping 19 targets (13-102-0), and Sam LaPorta (6-52-0, seven targets) was useful, even if most of it happened after the game was settled. Detroit knows where its bread is buttered.

Detroit's ready for a bounce back, hosting the mediocre Raiders a week from Monday. The Lions then enjoy a Week 9 bye, so hopefully we'll have Montgomery back for Week 10.

Speed Round

• The Rams found two running backs out of nowhere who did a credible job, and D'Onta Foreman (Chicago's No. 3) was excellent for the second straight week. This is why you don't take running backs early in the NFL Draft, unless you think you're getting some combination of Jim Brown, Walter Payton, and Adrian Peterson.

• Jakobi Meyers is outkicking his ADP, while Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are in major slumps (both had near-misses on touchdowns Sunday). I'm not sure why the Raiders felt it necessary to start journeyman Brian Hoyer (who turned 38 this month); why not give some development time to rookie Aidan O'Connell? It's not like Las Vegas has any 2023 upside, especially in the loaded AFC.

• I don't want to throw a parade for Rashee Rice posting a 5-60-1 line, but at least he beat his projection and showed a bump in snaps and routes. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are going to use their best players. Isiah Pacheco salvaged his fantasy day with four catches and a touchdown; he's quietly claimed this backfield as mostly his.

• The Giants entered this week with just five sacks, easily the worst in the league. They dropped Sam Howell six times. There's a disconnect with some fans and media, blaming offensive lines for sacks. They're more to do with the quarterbacks than the blocking scheme.

Howell's growing pains — and I don't think he ever develops into anything past a low-level starter or a backup — is threatening to shipwreck everyone in the Washington offense, save for Terry McLaurin (6-90-0 Sunday, including one highlight-film catch). Brian Robinson Jr. needs favorable game scripts to be startable. Jahan Dotson's breakout season is in the shredder now.

• Say this for Gardner Minshew, he's fun — fun in the way Jameis Winston 2019 was fun. Minshew slings it, plays fearlessly, keeps his team in the game, keeps the other guys in the game. He had four total touchdowns against the best defense in football — and took four sacks, and turned the ball over four times. Josh Downs paid off early, Michael Pittman bailed out late. They're both viable in Shane Steichen's offense.

• Cooper Kupp's quiet game goes down as a fluke (note the two rare drops), but Puka Nacua is the truth. This offense has a great play caller (Sean McVay), a quality quarterback (Matthew Stafford) and an incredibly narrow usage tree. Tutu Atwell is just an occasional shot-play specialist, and Tyler Higbee isn't involved much. When Stafford is back to pass, there's only two names on his mind. I wish I had Kupp or Nacua on every one of my rosters.

• Amari Cooper somehow has 90 yards or more in three games, despite being tied to Deshaun Watson (who hasn't looked good all year) and P.J. Walker (who's just a journeyman backup). Cooper is fortunate his fantasy value hasn't tanked, but there's no floor here. Things might get a lot worse. Emerging Elijah Moore is also a problem for Cooper.

• Calvin Ridley was trumpeted as a potential league-winner after his big opening day (really, a big opening half) at Indianapolis. Since then, this is how Ridley has finished each week: WR77, WR67, WR27, WR9, WR61, WR7, and WR82 (in progress). The bigger problem for Ridley: Christian Kirk is playing at a high level, running routes that offer more weekly consistency.

• A lot of lesser tight ends are seen as touchdown-or-bust candidates when we stream them. That's essentially what Gabe Davis has become in Buffalo. Note that rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid secured all eight of his targets Sunday; he could easily be Buffalo's No. 2 receiver the rest of the season. Dawson Knox? He lost a touchdown on penalty, and later had a critical drop in the second half.

• Jordan Love was excellent in the season-opening win at Chicago. He hasn't made it past 7.0 YPA since, and he was especially shaky against the mediocre Las Vegas and Denver defenses. Throw in a wide usage tree (10 players were targeted Sunday) and it's difficult to trust anyone in this offense right now, at least until Aaron Jones and Christian Watson give us a prove-it game and restore consumer confidence.

• Denver should be willing to trade any of its veterans as it plans for a better future, but if I were scouting the Broncos roster, I'd want Courtland Sutton seven days out of seven over Jerry Jeudy. Maybe it's a sucker play, but I'm still going to hold Marvin Mims Jr. (who can't get on the field) until the trade deadline, wanting to see if the Broncos can move one of the pieces blocking Mims. It's possible Sutton and Jeudy are keeping their regular reps because Denver is showcasing them.