Week 6 Expected Points: Puka Elite Alongside Kupp

Earlier this week, I published my Week 5 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.

For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.

In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Running Backs

Week 5 Expected Points

David Montgomery (DET, 22.2 Expected Points)

The Lions still have Friday's practice to see whether or not Jahmyr Gibbs will be suiting up for Week 6 against the Buccaneers. However, two missed practices to open the week suggest Gibbs will miss at least one more game, which puts Montgomery in position for another smash week.

In Week 5 against the Panthers, Montgomery ground out 109 rushing yards and one touchdown on 19 carries, leading the Lions with a 63.3 percent rushing share.

Montgomery was already seeing most of the Lions' touches inside the five-yard line. Still, it's worth reminding people that he's handled eight of the backfield's 11 opportunities in that area of the field this season.

Whether Gibbs plays or not, Montgomery will always be the favorite to handle the majority of backfield touches. But his ceiling will receive a significant boost if Gibbs sits.

Breece Hall (NYJ, 15.5 Expected Points)

The Jets finally ramped up Breece Hall in Week 5's contest against the Broncos, and it was glorious.

Hall gets a slight ding for going off for 22-177-1 against a lowly Broncos defense that everyone destroys, but running backs aren't just rolling out of bed and rushing for 177 yards every day. Hall's comeback from a torn ACL has been tremendous through five weeks. He's averaging an incredible 7.2 YPC and has been elite in several other efficiency metrics, ranking first among qualified backs (min. 10 rush attempts/gm) in YCO/ATT (4.80) and breakaway rush yards (259). Not only are Hall's on-field efficiency metrics through the roof, but he also ranks seventh amongst all backs in fantasy points over expected (13.8).

His offensive line has also shown solid push up front, ranking 14th in yards before contact per attempt (1.31).

Hall's emergence in Week 5 effectively banished Dalvin Cook into irrelevancy, as Cook was in on a career-low 16.9 percent of the Jet's offense snaps this season. His 15.5 expected fantasy points were nearly double what he had in any of the previous four weeks. Hall is a must-start in Week 6 against the Eagles.

D’Onta Foreman (CHI)

We're going out on a bit of a limb for this one. D'Onta Foreman has been a healthy scratch for most of the Bears' games this season, rushing just five times for 16 yards in the team's Week 1 opener against the Packers.

However, as a team, the Bears running backs rank 20th in expected fantasy points (96.5). The team is also rushing three percent below their expected rate (12th lowest) and has an early-down pass rate of 44.8 percent — the second-lowest in the league. While the expected points total isn't great, the Bears are a run-heavy team that also ranks sixth in yards before contact per attempt (1.87).

With Khalil Herbert (ankle) and Roschon Johnson (concussion) expected to be sidelined for Week 6 against the Vikings, Foreman could step into a high-volume role for the Bears.

The last time we really saw Foreman was in 2022 when he rushed for 203-914-5 with the Panthers. Foreman looked like a renewed player last season, averaging 3.26 YCO/ATT while ranking 14th in breakaway runs (12).

We'll see how he looks after being sidelined for nearly a month, but the volume alone could be enough to make Foreman an RB2 play in Week 6.

Wide Receivers

Week 5 Expected Points

Puka Nacua (LAR, 17.4 Expected Points)

We have a long way to go before we fully know what we can expect from Puka Nacua playing alongside Cooper Kupp, but the one-week sample was tremendous.

Nacua's 17.4 expected points were only slightly below the 20.8 expected points per game he averaged through the first four weeks of the season, while the 32 percent target share he saw in Week 5 matched his target share pre-Kupp.

It goes without saying, but Nacua's start has been unreal from both a volume and production standpoint.

In the Rams' Week 5 loss to the Eagles, Nacua turned 11 targets into a 7-71-1 line while posting 20.1 fantasy points and finishing as the WR11. Kupp was the WR12, going for 8-118-0 on 12 targets.

Both Kupp and Nacua have a chance to thrive in an offense ripe for fantasy production thus far. While the Rams' 30.3 seconds per snap in neutral situations ranks 30th of 32 teams, their 64 percent pass rate is tied for the fourth highest in the league. When trailing, the Rams have thrown at a 72 percent rate and have run the 10th-most plays in the league while trailing. Their three percent pass rate over expected is good for the seventh-highest rate in the league.

The receiver who took a backseat in Kupp's return was Tutu Atwell. Atwell caught two passes for nine yards and a touchdown on five targets, all of which were season-lows. Atwell managers can find some comfort in his 89 percent snap share, but they shouldn't expect the consistent target production he saw early on.

Jordan Addison (MIN, 17.3 Expected Points)

The Vikings and fantasy managers everywhere were dealt a brutal blow earlier this week when it was announced Justin Jefferson would be heading to injured reserve with a hamstring injury.

While K.J. Osborn is expected to “slide seamlessly into the ‘X’ receiver role” vacated by Jefferson, per The Athletic, I'm most interested in Jordan Addison.

Addison has been brought along slowly to start the season but earned a season-high 74 percent snap share in the Vikings' Week 5 loss to the Chiefs. Addison saw a career-high nine targets in that game, finishing with a 6-64-1 line, and has seen five or more targets in all but one of his games this season. He's also averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game through five games — good for WR35 on the season.

A fringe WR3 with Jefferson on the field should have a chance at WR2 upside with Jefferson sidelined. It also helps that the Vikings have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, as I pointed out on my socials earlier this week.

Osborn will undoubtedly see an uptick in targets, but Addison's 0.16 targets per route run on the season is well ahead of the 0.12 TRR Osborn has received on a team-high 203 routes run. When Addison is on the field, Kirk Cousins knows who he wants to target.

Michael Pittman (IND, 10.3 Expected Fantasy Points)

I won't be the only one touting Michael Pittman in a Gardner Minshew-led offense. Denny Carter did so earlier this week in his Regression Files article.

As Denny notes in his article, the volume Pittman needs to be a top-24 receiver depends on who is under center for the Colts. For those who have Pittman on their rosters, a month or two of Gardner Minshew could be exactly what they need for Pittman to get there.

It's hard to believe, but through five weeks, Pittman has already played roughly nine quarters of football with Minshew. In games where Minshew played two or more quarters (@ HOU, @ BAL, vs. TEN), Pittman is averaging 10.3 targets per game and 16.0 expected points per game while enjoying an elite 29.1 percent target share.

Pittman gets somewhat of a tough Week 6 matchup against the Jaguars, whose defense ranks 14th in expected points added per dropback (0.013). However, they also allow the seventh most receiving yards per game (271.6) and the eighth-most YAC/REC (5.55) per the FantasyPoints Data Suite.

The volume should be there for Pittman in Week 6, who has a shot at high-end WR2 production. Slot receiver Josh Downs is also an under-the-radar WR3 play.

Tight Ends

Week 5 Expected Points

Logan Thomas (WSH, 20.4 Expected Points)

Logan Thomas has been a viable fantasy option for those desperate for tight end production when he's healthy. Thomas saw a healthy eight targets in Week 1 against the Cardinals and had a 2-22-1 day on three targets in Week 2 against the Broncos before exiting with a head injury in the second quarter. He missed week three but returned to catch three passes for 41 yards in Week 4 and then exploded for 9-77-1 on 11 targets against the Bears last week.

Much to the disappointment of fantasy managers who spent all offseason drafting Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, Thomas' 6.2 targets per game is tied with McLaurin for the team lead — as is his 17 percent target share. Amongst fellow tight ends, Thomas' target share is tied for seventh-highest.

The tight end position is often hit or miss, but Thomas gets a juicy Week 6 matchup against a Falcons team allowing the second-most fantasy points per game (16.9) this season. Couple that with the Commanders' absurdly high pass rate (69 percent), and there's plenty of reason to think Thomas will be in the TE1 conversation again this week.

Cole Kmet (CHI, 14.2 Expected Points)

On the other end of Thomas' elite Week 5 performance was Cole Kmet, who turned in a solid 15.2-point outing against the Commanders. Kmet has found the end zone in each of the Bears' last two games, and is currently the overall TE3 in expected fantasy points this season.

With Chase Claypool now in Miami and Darnell Mooney being used as a distant WR2 behind D.J. Moore, Kmet's 29 targets are second only to Moore and 11 more than Khalil Herbert, who isn't expected to suit up in Week 6.

The Vikings have allowed 12.8 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, which includes a 14.4-point performance by Donald Parham in Week 3 and a 22.7-point performance by Travis Kelce in Week 5.

Those questioning whether or not they should fire up Kmet in Week 6 should start him with confidence.