Week 3 Buccaneers @ Vikings: Who Has the Edge?
Following a week two shellacking at the hands of the Steelers and given all the questions surrounding Sam Bradford’s injury, the Vikings are facing a miniature crossroads in the season. They could step up amid the circumstances and return to being one of the league’s elite or they could fall into the 8-8 abyss of 2016.
Minnesota has a tough test in week three against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Let us see which team has the edge at each position.
Quarterback
The question of whether or not Bradford plays contributes a lot to the choice here. If Bradford plays and plays like he did week one, Jameis Winston will be hard-pressed to match that. That being said, few quarterbacks have the football IQ and upside Winston has and he has made major strides in his first two NFL seasons. Based on the average expected Winston performance versus the average expected Bradford performance, Winston gets the nod.
Edge: Buccaneers
Running Back
With Doug Martin suspended for this week, Tampa is trotting out Jacquizz Rogers and Charles Sims. Rookie or not, Dalvin Cook is third in the NFL in rushing right now. Clear edge for Minnesota.
Edge: Vikings
Wide Receiver
Both teams are largely in the same boat at receiver: the two squads are top-heavy. Vikings throw Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, Bucs Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. Before the season started, I would have given the edge to Tampa simply because Mike Evans is a top-five receiver with the size, speed and hands to be a mismatch in any situation. But Evans has only been decent to start the season while Thielen and Diggs have gotten off to red-hot starts. They truly are one of the top one-two punches in football.
Edge: Vikings
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph is probably the best pass-catching tight end in this game but the duo of Cameron Brate and rookie O.J. Howard has the potential to re-invigorate the dual tight end attack in the NFL.
Edge: Buccaneers
Offensive Line
Minnesota’s line is a mystery week-to-week. They were great week one against a mad Saints defense and mediocre week two against a strong Pittsburgh front. Tampa, on the other hand, has some more stability. True, they only have one week of tape but STATS rated them as the second-best pass protecting line in the league in week two. Their run protection leaves something to be desired but given the amount of times they will throw the ball, they get the nod.
Edge: Buccaneers
Defensive Line
This is another situation where one team has the best player but the other has the best overall squad. Gerald McCoy may be the best player in this game, period. But Everson Griffen is pretty darn good himself and the Viking line goes three deep at end and tackle with productive players.
Edge: Vikings
Linebacker
Anthony Barr and Lavonte David are very similar players, as are Eric Kendricks and Kwon Alexander. Their production is almost identical, their upsides are almost identical. This is a wash.
Edge: Draw
Defensive Back
If T.J. Ward gets up to speed with the Tampa defense, the secondary may be able to get closer to equaling that of Minnesota. But until that happens, the Vikings have two Pro Bowlers in Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith and another longtime starter in Andrew Sendejo to turn to. Trae Waynes’ struggles aside, Minnesota has one of the best defensive backfields in the league.
Edge: Vikings
Special Teams
Kai Forbath’s PAT yips are a mystery, to be sure. But he has been solid on field goals and Marcus Sherels is one of the best return men in the business. The Buccaneers have turned to veteran Nick Folk following the public release of Roberto Aguayo in training camp and he has been all right. But he also has a missed extra point on his stat line for the year.
In the fickle game of kicking and punting, the sample size is too low to truly evaluate who should play better. But the threat of a Sherels return touchdown pushes Minnesota over the top.
Edge: Vikings
Final Score
This game shows the position group edge prediction system does not necessarily work. The Vikings edge the Bucs by the score of five positions to three but they have narrow leads at all of those positions whereas Tampa has the clear edge at the one position that counts: quarterback. The Buccaneers go two ways as well as any team in the league; that may be true of Minnesota but they are a conditional two-way team.
Last week showed that the Vikings are going to be dependent on big-time play from Sam Bradford to beat good teams. No matter how good the Minnesota defense is, they will not be able to carry an anemic offense to big wins. The Buccaneers are a really good team, capable of unseating the Falcons at the top of the NFC South so Minnesota needs Bradford healthy and heaving the ball like he did against the Saints. I am not confident that he will play, period, let alone play at that caliber. The Vikings will be the Buccaneers’ equal for three quarters but the fire power of Winston and the Tampa passing game will be too much for Minnesota down the stretch.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Vikings 24
–Sam Smith is the Managing Editor for cover32/Vikings. Like and Follow @samc_smith Follow @cover32_MIN
AROUND COVER32
Greg Olsen breaks foot, out 6-8 weeks
Winners and Losers: Patriots dominate the Saints
Power Rankings: Week Three; Denver is on the rise
2018 NFL Draft: Previewing the Quarterbacks
