Week 14 Expected Points: Injuries Alter the Wide Receiver Landscape

Earlier this week, I published my Week 13 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.

For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.

In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.

Week 14 byes: ARI and WSH

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Running Backs

Week 13 Expected Points

Zack Moss (IND, 21.2 Expected Points)

Zack Moss' return as the Colts' RB1 was a major flop as far as fantasy points are concerned. A 9.7-point outing wasn't what fantasy managers were hoping to see when they slotted him in as one of their top backs, but his 21.2 expected points are reason enough to play him again in Week 14 against the Bengals.

Moss saw enough volume to finish as the RB6 in expected fantasy points and saw a dominant 94.1 percent snap share. Things didn't break Moss' way in Week 13, but going against a Bengals defense allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (133.9) and 4.8 YPC should be just the environment Moss needs for a bounce back.

Joshua Kelley (LAC, 6.9 Expected Points)

In the Chargers' 6-0 win over the Patriots, Austin Ekeler led the team with 14 carries for 18 yards. Joshua Kelley didn't fare much better, rushing six times for 16 yards while catching 2-of-3 targets for nine yards. In addition to the underwhelming rushing line, Ekeler also played on 57 percent of snaps and could face future competition for touches, according to head coach Brandon Staley.

The 2023 season has been one to forget for Ekeler. After spending all offseason trying to track down a new team and contract, the veteran running back was forced to play out his deal and will almost certainly be an unrestricted free agent at the start of the next offseason.

During Ekeler's three-game absence earlier this season, Kelley stepped in to replace him. Kelley wasn't great in Ekeler's stead, rushing 41 times for 116 scoreless yards, but any future opportunities could put him back on the fantasy radar for the most desperate of fantasy managers.

Chase Brown (CIN, 4.4 Expected Points)

Bengals rookie running back Chase Brown fell just outside the top 36 running backs in expected fantasy points last week, but this article is my only excuse to talk about him.

Brown was a fifth-year senior at the University of Illinois last season. He transferred to Illinois after one season at Western Michigan and came into a lead role during the 2021 season. During his final two years at Illinois, Brown totaled 2,648 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground and added another 41-382-3 through the air.

Brown, 23, is an "older" rookie, but his performance at the NFL Scouting Combine only added to an already interesting prospect profile.

While he's just shy of the ideal size for an early-down grinder, Brown's strength and athleticism put him among the best backs in the class. His elite 9.81 RAS is buoyed by a 4.43 40-time and high-end numbers in the vertical and broad jumps, which measure a player's explosiveness.

Injuries slowed Brown for a significant portion of the season, but in last week's game against the Jaguars, he stepped in to handle nine rush attempts, which he took for 61 yards. Two of his runs accounted for 46 yards on the ground, but I think the volume Brown saw in Week 13 is worth pointing out.

There's no need to complicate what we saw from Brown in Week 13. His nine rush attempts were the most by any Bengals running back not named Joe Mixon in a single game this season. In fact, backup running backs Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams have combined for just 20 touches in 20 combined games this season.

It's only a one-game sample, but logic would tell us Brown stepped into the Bengals' RB2 role in last week's game and looks like the handcuff to Mixon for the foreseeable future. Fantasy managers looking for an unexpected spark in the playoffs would be wise to stash Brown in leagues where they can afford to do so, as an injury to Mixon could put him in prime position to smash. Per the RotoViz Strength of Schedule App, Brown and the Bengals have the 16th-easiest schedule for fantasy running backs during the fantasy playoffs.

Brown is on the short list of available running backs I'm interested in stashing in as a high-end handcuff to one of the league's truest bell cows.

Wide Receivers

Week 13 Expected Points

Nico Collins (HOU, 23.8 Expected Points)

An injury to Tank Dell in the first quarter paved the way for Nico Collins to see a 48 percent target share in the Texans' Week 13 win over the Broncos. Entering the week, Collins and Dell were tied for a team-high 22 percent target share on the season, with each receiver seeing 70 or more targets over that span.

With Dell now out for the season, a significant portion of the target share is now up for grabs, which could spell a productive fantasy season for Collins the rest of the way.

That's not to say Collins wasn't already producing at a high level. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, Collins averaged 16.0 fantasy points per game, but his high-end production was somewhat inconsistent.

Prior to Week 13, Collins had only three top-12 fantasy finishes on the year and four WR3 finishes or worse in six games, Weeks 5 through 12.

Collins has always displayed big-play potential throughout his career, but even in a breakout year this season, his ceiling was undoubtedly capped by Dell's quick emergence. Collins has been one of the most explosive receivers in the league, with C.J. Stroud under center. Among qualified receivers (min. 50 targets), he ranks:

• 3rd in Yards per Reception (16.8)

• 3rd in Yards per Route Run (2.90)

• 4th in Yards After Catch per Reception (7.2)

He's also caught 64.3 percent of his 14 deep ball targets — the fourth-highest rate among receivers with at least 10 deep targets.

For all his talent, Collins' week-to-week output has been spotty at best. With Dell now sidelined, we no longer have to overthink things. Collins looks like a must-start receiver for the remainder of the season.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ, 10.7 Expected Points)

The Jets' quarterback situation is among the worst in the league. Despite previous reports that Zach Wilson wasn't interested in starting for the team again this season, the former No. 2 overall pick has once again been announced as the starter. While his job is far from secure beyond this week, his return should be welcomed by Garrett Wilson and his fantasy managers.

For all his flaws — and there are many — we have to credit Zach Wilson for keeping Garrett Wilson's fantasy stock above water.

Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Wilson ranked as the WR27 in fantasy points per game (13.5) and was the WR7 in expected fantasy points per game (16.8). He was also sixth in targets per game at 10.3. In two games with Tim Boyle/Trevor Siemian, Wilson still averaged a respectable nine targets per game, but his 73 percent catchable target rate with Zach Wilson fell to 67 percent over the last two weeks. His 10.9 aDOT also dipped to 9.9.

Weirdly, life was "good" for Garrett Wilson before the quarterback switch. He gets a challenging matchup in Week 14 against the Texans, but fantasy managers can look to him as a WR3 with his QB1 now back.

Parker Washington (JAC, 10.2 Expected Points)

As was the case in Houston, an injury to Christian Kirk in Jacksonville resulted in a big game for a Jaguars receiver — although it probably wasn't the receiver we expected. Fantasy managers would have liked to see an increase in targets go to Calvin Ridley or Zay Jones. Instead, it was rookie Parker Washington who stepped into Kirk's role, and the Jags barely missed a beat.

Prior to Week 13, Washington had played on just 10 offensive snaps. In last week's game against the Bengals, Washington played 41 offensive snaps while running 34 routes and playing 80 percent of his snaps from the slot. He was a one-for-one replacement for Kirk, who has played from the slot on 71.3 percent of his snaps this season.

Washington was an interesting prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft. A former four-star recruit from the 2020 recruiting class, Washington played three seasons at Penn State — which included two seasons with 2022 first-rounder Jahan Dotson — and was an early declare after the 2022 season. Despite never totaling more than 820 yards in a season, Washington showed high-end traits playing in the Big Ten, specifically in yards after the catch. He averaged 5.7 YAC/REC during his three-year career and also caught 53.3 percent of his contested targets — both impressive marks.

Now expected to serve as the Jaguars' slot receiver for the foreseeable future, Washington should have plenty of opportunities to make an impact for the remainder of the fantasy season. Earlier this week, I touched on the Jaguars' usage of 11-personnel and slot targets.

We'll need to see some consistency out of Washington before viewing him as more than a WR4. Still, he's taking over for a receiver who was earning a 21 percent target share and averaging 7.1 targets per game. He could be a fun receiver for the right team down the stretch.

Tight Ends

Week 13 Expected Points

Evan Engram (JAC, 14.0 Expected Points)

Evan Engram continues to see one of the most consistent roles in fantasy. The former first-round pick has enjoyed a career revitalization since joining the Jaguars as a free agent last offseason. Over the last two years, here's where Engram ranks among tight ends in some basic counting stats.

Engram has seen seven or more targets in 10-of-12 games in his second season with the Jaguars and is third in expected fantasy points at 143.1. The potential loss of Trevor Lawrence (ankle) for Week 14 could limit his fantasy upside against a stout Browns defense, but in leagues where you can still pull off trades, a contending team in need of a tight end would be wise to target Engram for the playoff stretch.