Week 13 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: Although Josh Allen has the narrowest of leads by total fantasy points, Patrick Mahomes has overtaken his rival in the consistency department. Mahomes has thrown for at least 320 yards in six straight starts, becoming the first player since Drew Brees in 2012 to do so. Now he has a beautiful 53.0 over/under in Kansas City's AFC Championship Game rematch with the Bengals. … Josh Allen is fighting through it as he deals with interceptions and his elbow issue, but he's not exactly leaving fantasy managers hanging. “@NE” looks imposing on paper, but Allen has had the Pats' number of late, while Bill Belichick's defense has feasted on bad quarterbacks and gotten ripped even by the Kirk Cousinses of the world. … Averaging 25.6 fantasy points since revving his rushing attack back up three games ago, Jalen Hurts looks like he's fixin' to win some leagues for fantasy managers. He will now have to rev his passing back up vs. the Titans, who are far more forgiving through the air than on the ground. … Getting back Ja'Marr Chase (hip): This time it counts for Joe Burrow. It's just in the nick of time for what will have to be a points-matching affair with the Chiefs in Cincinnati.
I'll begin the week with where I would have Justin Fields (shoulder) if he plays. My guess is that he sits another game ahead of the Bears' Week 14 bye. … Coming off his first three-score outing since Week 2 and first back-to-back multi-touchdown efforts since Weeks 1 and 2, Justin Herbert seems to be welcoming himself back to the season. Unsurprisingly, it has coincided with Keenan Allen's return. The Raiders are as good as it gets for a fantasy matchup. … Tua Tagovailoa didn't have to try in Week 12 against the Texans. Now he gets a 49ers defense surrendering the sixth fewest QB fantasy points, though it has been over a month since the Niners were truly tested. They got roasted by Patrick Mahomes in that one. At the very least, Tagovailoa's floor should be considered intact. … Lamar Jackson has somehow become a lunchpail fantasy option, hitting his baseline every week but not doing much more. The Broncos remain a tough quarterback foe despite Denver's “offense” continually putting its defense in position to fail by keeping it on the field for so long. … It was yet another “deluxe Derek Carr” day for Dak Prescott on Thanksgiving. Good enough, but we won't be getting more against the Colts. Dallas' offense only opens it up when strictly necessary.
Although a lot of us would rather not talk about it, Deshaun Watson is back. He is returning to a strong skill corps and a stronger running game than he ever had in Houston. Speaking of Houston, that is somehow where Watson will be making his first start in nearly two years. Watson should not be playing football this season, but he is going to be a QB1 when doing so. … All the way up to QB11 status on the year, fantasy managers can feel free to “point chase” with Trevor Lawrence vs. a Lions “defense” surrendering the most QB fantasy points. There's little debate Week 12 was the best start of Lawrence's career. … With his backfield banged up, Jimmy Garoppolo could be forced into more attempts than usual vs. a Dolphins defense handing out the third most QB fantasy points. … Geno Smith's box scores are turning out better than his eye tests. Both should be nice against a collapsed Rams team that is adding Aaron Donald (high-ankle sprain) to its hospital ward. Hopefully the Rams generate enough offense to get Smith into 30-35 attempt range.
Finally taking advantage of plus matchups to play some better ball, Derek Carr has another advantageous spot in the Chargers' underwhelming defense. … All it took was Bill Belichick to supply Kirk Cousins' first three-score start of the year. The Jets are another imposing spot on paper. Cousins has at least produced multiple scores in four of his past six starts. … Aaron Rodgers' (thumb, ribs) health will be one of the biggest question marks of Week 13. Although it will be tempting to rankings ding him if he suits up — and Rodgers has said he expects to — the fact of the matter is, he will be facing a Bears defense that is one of the very worst in the league, one that is 31st in EPA per dropback. Chicago just made Mike White look like Joe Burrow. If Rodgers sits and Jordan Love goes, I will slot Love into the QB18-20 range. … I'm finally crying uncle on Tom Brady. He has regressed to the mean … from one weekly score to two. It's just not enough, and it will be difficult to expect more vs. his Tampa nemesis New Orleans.
Fantasy managers learned the hard way last season not to go overboard after one good Mike White start. He is still set up to get a hot streak going as he faces a Vikings defense permitting the most passing yards in the league. … “Stream Jared Goff” always looks better in theory than practice, but the Jags are a perfectly reasonable QB2 spot, especially since they arrive in Detroit with an over/under north of 50. … The consistency just hasn't been there for Daniel Jones, while he's now been held below 25 yards rushing in three of his past four starts. The Commanders have become of the tougher quarterback opponents. With Darius Slayton and Richie James his top-two weapons, it all comes down to Jones spiking a week with his legs. … Marcus Mariota has an A+ matchup in the Steelers. Don't all line up at once. … Treylon Burks ripping three 40-plus yard catches in the past two weeks has made Ryan Tannehill a more appealing superflex option. … Mac Jones has moved beyond his ankle injury to at least produce a non-trivial amount of passing yards. … Will Dennis Allen finally have the nerve to go back to Jameis Winston?