Way-too-early 2023 rankings, record predictions and bowl projections for each Big Ten team
It’s officially the offseason for the college football world.
Georgia was once again crowned the top dogs in the sport, beating TCU for the 2023 national championship. A pair of Big Ten teams were in the hunt for the sport’s top honor, but both Ohio State and Michigan came up short in their College Football Playoff semifinals.
We are a long ways away from kicking off the 2023 season, but that doesn’t mean we can’t begin to look ahead to next year already. Here’s our first crack at ranking where each Big Ten team will finish next season, with record and bowl projections for each squad:
NOTE: Bowl projections are based on current Big Ten bowl tie-ins and will be updated if those change.
Northwestern
Record in 2022: 1-11 (1-8 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 16 – at Duke
Sept. 30 – vs. Penn State
Nov. 11 – at Wisconsin
It feels like the days of Northwestern contending for a division title and reaching the postseason regularly are gone. The Wildcats have won four games across the past two seasons, and are in the midst of an 11-game losing streak, so I don’t have a particularly high outlook on Northwestern entering the offseason and next year.
Projected 2023 Record: 3-9 (1-8 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: No bowl game
Indiana
Record in 2022: 4-8 (2-7 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 2 – vs. Ohio State
Sept. 16 – vs. Louisville (at Lucas Oil Stadium)
Oct. 14 – at Michigan
The Hoosiers were hoping Missouri transfer quarterback Connor Bazelak would turn their fortunes around this past season, but that didn’t go as planned. He is now back in the transfer portal along with quarterback Jack Tuttle, and Indiana will need to figure out what they’re going to do under center next season. This year very well could be the last in Bloomington, Indiana, for head coach Tom Allen.
Projected 2023 Record: 3-9 (1-8 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: No bowl game
Rutgers
Record in 2022: 4-8 (1-8 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 16 – vs. Virginia Tech
Sept. 23 – at Michigan
Nov. 4 – vs. Ohio State
Entering this past season, it felt like Rutgers was heading in the right direction. Inconsistent quarterback play doomed them in 2022. There is still a talent gap, but the Scarlet Knights will need much better play out of quarterback Gavin Wimsatt or another option under center to reach bowl eligibility in 2023.
Projected 2023 Record: 4-8 (1-8 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: No bowl game
Purdue
Record in 2022: 8-6 (6-3 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 9 – at Virginia Tech
Oct. 14 – vs. Ohio State
Nov. 4 – at Michigan
Purdue had a memorable season in 2022 by winning the Big Ten West Division and reaching the conference championship game for the first time in program history. However, the situation will look a lot different this fall with a new head coach, Ryan Walters, and quarterback (Aidan O’Connell is off to the NFL). The addition of Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card should help the Boilermakers contend for a bowl game, but I don’t expect them to be in the division title hunt again next year.
Projected 2023 Record: 5-7 (3-6 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: No bowl game
Maryland
Record in 2022: 8-5 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 16 – vs. Virginia
Oct. 7 – at Ohio State
Nov. 4 – vs. Penn State
If star quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa returns for another year in College Park, I’ll have to move the Terps up our rankings. For now, I’m anticipating he’s off to the NFL, and that means the Maryland offense will be starting from scratch in 2023. Reaching a bowl game will be the goal for the Terps as they adjust to life without Tagovailoa.
Projected 2023 Record: 6-6 (3-6 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: Quick Lane Bowl
Nebraska
Record in 2022: 4-8 (3-6 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 9 – at Colorado
Sept. 30 – vs. Michigan
Nov. 4 – at Michigan State
Nebraska will be a great test case in determining how big of an impact coaching makes in college football. The Cornhuskers will field a relatively talented squad that could contend for a Big Ten West Division title should things break their way in 2023. That’s been the case the past few seasons as well, so we’ll see if the exciting hire of Matt Rhule as the next Nebraska head coach will have an instant impact next year. At minimum, I expect the Cornhuskers to be bowling in 2023.
Projected 2023 Record: 6-6 (3-6 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Illinois
Record in 2022: 8-5 (5-4 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 9 – at Kansas
Sept. 16 – vs. Penn State
Oct. 21 – vs. Wisconsin
Illinois had a breakthrough season in Year 2 under Bret Bielema, reaching the postseason for only the second time in the last eight seasons. The Fighting Illini lose a handful of key individuals from this year’s squad, including star running back Chase Brown, quarterback Tommy Devito and defensive coordinator Ryan Walters. The addition of quarterback Luke Altmyer through the transfer portal should help on offense, but I anticipate this team struggling to match last year’s eight wins in 2023.
Projected 2023 Record: 6-6 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: Pinstripe Bowl
Minnesota
Record in 2022: 9-4 (5-4 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 16 – at North Carolina
Oct. 7 – vs. Michigan
Nov. 18 – at Ohio State
Minnesota has been extremely consistent under P.J. Fleck, winning at least nine games in each of the last three complete seasons (not including the 2020 COVID-19 year). So even with the notable losses from this past year’s squad, I expect them to again be in striking distance for nine wins and maybe break through with a Big Ten West Division title. The only issue is their schedule, which includes Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State as their three crossover games. That will not be easy to navigate for Fleck and Co.
Projected 2023 Record: 7-5 (5-4 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Michigan State
Record in 2022: 5-7 (3-6 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 16 – vs. Washington
Oct. 21 – vs. Michigan
Nov. 11 – at Ohio State
This past season was a complete letdown for Michigan State so you may be surprised I have the Spartans this high in our rankings. My reasoning is simply water found its level this past year: 2021 was the ceiling and 2022 was the floor. I expect 2023 to be somewhere in the middle. The roster continues to get deeper under head coach Mel Tucker. If the Spartans can avoid key injuries early in the season, unlike this past year, then this will be a solid squad. But keep in mind that the 2023 slate is brutally tough with four games against projected preseason top 10 teams and road trips to Iowa and Minnesota as crossover matchups
Projected 2023 Record: 7-5 (5-4 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: Music City Bowl
Iowa
Record in 2022: 8-5 (5-4 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 9 – at Iowa State
Sept. 23 – at Penn State
Oct. 14 – at Wisconsin
If Iowa had any consistent offensive production, it would have won the Big Ten West Division and potentially given Michigan a challenge in the Big Ten title game. But it didn’t. If that situation doesn’t improve, this is way too high for the Hawkeyes. I think they do see a notable boost on the offensive side of the ball with transfer quarterback Cade McNamara, and I anticipate Iowa contending for another trip to Indy next fall.
Projected 2023 Record: 9-3 (6-3 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: ReliaQuest Bowl
Wisconsin
Record in 2022: 7-6 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 9 – at Washington State
Oct. 28 – vs. Ohio State
Nov. 25 – at Minnesota
The issue with Wisconsin this past season wasn’t talent — it was coaching and quarterback play. In the offseason, the Badgers addressed both problems. They hired Luke Fickell as their head coach and landed SMU transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai. I’m maybe a bit higher on the Badgers than I should be, but I think Fickell has an instant impact on this already deep roster and gets Wisconsin back to the Big Ten Championship Game in his first year.
Projected 2023 Record: 10-2 (7-2 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: Citrus Bowl
Penn State
Record in 2022: 11-2 (7-2 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 2 – vs. West Virginia
Oct. 21 – at Ohio State
Nov. 11 – vs. Michigan
Penn State had one of the most quietly successful seasons in the country this past year, with wins against everyone besides Michigan and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions enter 2023 looking to get over the hump and find a way to beat the Wolverines and Buckeyes. It’s definitely possible. Expect Penn State to be a true contender in the Big Ten next fall and a dark horse national championship contender.
Projected 2023 Record: 11-1 (8-1 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: Orange Bowl
Ohio State
Record in 2022: 11-2 (8-1 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Sept. 23 – at Notre Dame
Oct. 21 – vs. Penn State
Nov. 25 – at Michigan
Ohio State is a missed field goal away from being the national champions. The Buckeyes had Georgia on the ropes in their College Football Playoff semifinals and probably would have beaten TCU had they held of the Bulldogs’ comeback. But that’s in the past. As we look ahead, it’s clear Ohio State will be one of the top teams in the league again. There are some questions, such as at quarterback, but this should again be a squad in contention to win it all next fall.
Projected 2023 Record: 11-1 (8-1 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: Sugar Bowl (national semifinal)
Michigan
Record in 2022: 13-1 (9-0 in Big Ten)
Notable Games in 2023:
Oct. 21 – at Michigan State
Nov. 11 – at Penn State
Nov. 25 – vs. Ohio State
Ohio State may be the betting favorite to win the league next year, but until Ryan Day gets over the now apparent Michigan blocker, I’m going to list the Wolverines as the favorite heading into the offseason. Outside of the recent success against the Buckeyes, Michigan returns its top three offensive weapons: quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. The only thing that could have me drop the Wolverines from our top spot before next fall is if head coach Jim Harbaugh departs for the NFL, which is a possibility.
Projected 2023 Record: 11-1 (8-1 in Big Ten)
Bowl Projection: Rose Bowl (national semifinal)
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