What to watch: Week 7 college football viewing guide, picks against the spread
Like we’ve done in years past, every Friday throughout the season we’ll highlight the five best games of the coming weekend. This year, we’ll pick those games against the spread, plus some other matchups that caught our eye from a betting perspective.
Can you believe we’re already halfway through the season? It feels like it just began.
In Week 7, we’ve got three games between ranked opponents, all of which can have some serious implications on the conference standings in the short-term and implications on the College Football Playoff in the long-term.
On top of that, seven ranked teams will go on the road and play unranked opponents. Whenever that happens, there is plenty of potential for some upsets. Week 4 is the perfect example of that.
(Games on Saturday unless otherwise noted, all times ET)
5. No. 10 UCF at Memphis
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: ABC/ESPN2 | Line: UCF -4.5
Central Florida gets its first road test of the season against Memphis. The Knights, winners of 18 straight games dating back to the beginning of 2017, have cruised to a 5-0 start, with four wins coming at home. The transition from Scott Frost to Josh Heupel has been seamless — especially on offense. UCF ranks third in total offense (574.4 ypg) and sixth in scoring offense (48.6 ppg).
Memphis (4-2, 1-2) gave UCF its biggest scare in last year’s AAC title game, a 62-55 UCF win in double overtime. Memphis, now with Arizona State transfer Brady White at QB and big-play RB Darrell Henderson, has an explosive offense of its own (547.2 ypg, 46.2 ppg). Henderson, an All-America candidate, leads the country with 934 yards on just 79 carries — a ridiculous 11.8-yard average.
UCF obviously cannot afford a loss if it wants to creep into the College Football Playoff picture. But like in 2017, a more realistic expectation is to represent the Group of Five conferences in a New Year’s Six bowl. UCF is clearly at the top, but is going to have some competition as the year progresses, especially in its own conference (USF, Cincinnati, Houston) and from teams like Appalachian State and Utah State.
Picks: Sam Cooper: UCF -4.5, Nick Bromberg: UCF -4.5
4. No. 19 Colorado at USC
Time: 10:30 p.m. | TV: FS1 | Line: USC -7
Colorado, the only unbeaten team remaining in the Pac-12, has chance to create some separation in the Pac-12 South on Saturday night. CU improved to 5-0 by knocking off Arizona State, 28-21, last weekend in Boulder. ASU was by far the toughest team on the schedule to this point. The Buffs’ five opponents, including 3-3 ASU, have a combined 6-21 record. That includes winless Nebraska and UCLA. Traveling to USC will be a much tougher test for CU, a team with two of the better offensive players in the Pac-12 in quarterback Steven Montez (1,420 yards, 11 TDs, 75.2 percent) and receiver Laviska Shenault (51 catches for 708 yards).
Following a bumpy 1-2 start that reignited the Clay Helton hot seat talk, USC rebounded with close wins over Washington State (WSU’s only loss) and Arizona. Freshman quarterback JT Daniels had his best game against WSU, but the Trojans were sloppy against the Wildcats, committing 18 penalties and nearly letting a 24-0 lead slip away. A win over Colorado would place the Trojans atop the Pac-12 South standings with next week’s trip to Utah another chance to create some separation in the division.
Picks: Sam: Colorado +7 Nick: Colorado +7
3. No. 2 Georgia at No. 13 LSU
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: CBS | Line: Georgia -8
Georgia (6-0, 4-0) gets its biggest challenge of the season with a trip to Baton Rouge on Saturday. The second-ranked Bulldogs have faced just one ranked team so far this year, trouncing then-No. 24 South Carolina, 41-17, in Week 2. Since then, UGA has breezed past Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Tennessee and Vanderbilt en route to a 6-0 start. Saturday’s game marks the first of four in a row (No. 14 Florida, No. 18 Kentucky, No. 21 Auburn) against ranked opponents, giving Georgia the chances it needs to legitimize its No. 2 ranking and take home an SEC East title for a second straight season.
LSU (5-1, 2-1) is in the midst of an even more challenging stretch of games. Last weekend’s loss to Florida was the first of the year for the Tigers. LSU had impressive wins over Miami and Auburn in September but fell 27-19 to the Gators in The Swamp. In the loss, LSU led in the fourth quarter before allowing two scores in the final nine minutes, including a pick-six on QB Joe Burrow’s first interception of the season. With UGA, Mississippi State and Alabama all coming into Death Valley, the Tigers have no margin for error if they want to stay in the College Football Playoff and SEC West races.
Picks: Sam: LSU +8, Nick: UGA -8
2. No. 15 Wisconsin at No. 12 Michigan
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: Michigan -9
If Wisconsin (4-1, 2-0 Big Ten) really wants to shake off its loss to BYU and put itself back in the College Football Playoff conversation, it will have to start on Saturday night in Ann Arbor. Since that inexplicable home loss on Sept. 15, the Badgers bounced back with wins over Iowa and Nebraska to leap to the front of the pack in the Big Ten West. But a West division crown was a minimum expectation. Many had the Badgers as a true CFP contender. To get back in that mix, UW has to win out. And a road win over Michigan, which boasts the nation’s No. 1 defense, would continue that process while increasing UW’s streak of consecutive regular-season Big Ten wins to 18 games.
Like Wisconsin, Michigan (5-1, 3-1) had an early-season loss to shake off. UM’s was much more defensible. The Wolverines dropped their opener to Notre Dame in South Bend and have since reeled off five straight. Michigan, which is 2-6 against ranked conference opponents under Jim Harbaugh. will have to deal with a heavy dose of Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor. Meanwhile, the UM offense is coming off a 465-yard outing in a win over Maryland that featured Ole Miss transfer QB Shea Patterson’s best statistical output of the year: 287 yards and 3 TDs. He’ll need to continue playing well to help his team keep pace with Ohio State in the Big Ten East.
Picks: Sam: Wisconsin +9, Nick: Wisconsin +9
1. No. 7 Washington at No. 17 Oregon
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: ABC/ESPN2 | Line: Washington -3
Washington (5-1, 3-0 Pac-12) can really distance itself from the rest of the Pac-12 North with a win over Oregon in Eugene on Saturday. UW can also really help the Pac-12 as a whole in the league’s quest to get back to the College Football Playoff after missing the boat last year. The Huskies have not lost since dropping a close one in Week 1 to Auburn in Atlanta. A road win over Oregon, plus undefeated Colorado’s visit to Husky Stadium next week, gives UW two big chances to boost its credentials with trips to Stanford and Washington State still on the horizon.
The Ducks could be right there with the Huskies atop the division if it wasn’t for the inexplicable home loss to Stanford where they blew a 24-7 late third quarter lead. Oregon responded to that heartbreak with an impressive road win over Cal. Now, coming off a bye, the Ducks can get back on the winning side of the rivalry. Oregon won 12 straight in the series from 2004-15. However, in the last two matchups, Washington has won both by a combined score of 108-24. Oregon, with Justin Herbert in his third season as the starting QB, can give Washington a much better fight this time around.
Picks: Sam: Oregon +3, Nick: Washington -3
Record to date: Sam: 14-16, Nick: 13-17
Week 7’s best bets
Nick Bromberg (Last week: 0-3, Overall: 11-7)
Nebraska at Northwestern (-4): Nebraska is still looking for its first win of the season. Northwestern could be a good candidate. After all, this is the same Northwestern team that lost to Akron at home earlier this year. But Northwestern played Michigan tough and beat Purdue on the road. The Cornhuskers shouldn’t be trusted until they prove they can win a game. Pick: Northwestern -4
Missouri at Alabama (-27.5): Missouri fans are used to the Tigers losing stupid games like they did last week vs. South Carolina. Missouri has the talent to be a pretty good team in the SEC but has made an absurd amount of unforced errors in 2018. The weakest part of Missouri’s team is its pass defense. That’s not a good sign going on the road In a homecoming game to play Tua Tagovailoa and Alabama. Pick: Alabama -27.5
Hawaii at BYU (-11): The Cougars are making a much-needed quarterback change. Freshman Zach Wilson will reportedly get his first start against the Warriors. Hawaii is a sneaky decent team at 6-1 and more than 10 points is too many against a Cougars team that’s struggled since beating Wisconsin. Pick: Hawaii +11
Sam Cooper (Last week: 2-1, Overall: 9-9)
Duke at Georgia Tech (-3): Georgia Tech has to be feeling good after destroying Louisville on the road last week, but this is still a very mediocre Yellow Jackets team, especially on defense. Duke is coming off a bye week, but still has to be fuming a little bit from losing to Virginia Tech, 31-14, for its first loss of the season. With Daniel Jones back at quarterback, I like the Blue Devils to bounce back and win this one outright. Pick: Duke +3
Oklahoma State (-7) at Kansas State: In years past, I would be leery about picking against Kansas State at home. But this is not the Kansas State we’re used to. Bill Snyder just turned 79 and his program is not in good shape. Oklahoma State has been inconsistent, but on the heels of a loss to Iowa State, I like the Cowboys to be motivated to bounce back against the Wildcats. Pick: Oklahoma State -7
Virginia Tech (-6) at North Carolina: The 45-23 final score may not make it seem that way, but Virginia Tech was in that Notre Dame game last week. In fact, the Hokies looked poised to take a lead before halftime until the Irish returned a fumble for a touchdown on a strip sack. Now, Tech gets a chance to get back on track against a terrible UNC team that turned it over six times in a loss to Miami. Pick: Virginia Tech -6
For Pat Forde and Pete Thamel’s Week 7 picks, check out Race for the Case:
