Ariel Epstein and Jared Quay Campbell give their instant blind reactions to NFL lines for Week 14.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Welcome into "Yahoo Sportsbook." Alongside Jared Campbell, I'm Ariel Epstein. We have not seen these week 14 lines yet, considering while we're recording this week 13 is still ongoing. Jared, I've never done this before with you. I'm a little bit nervous. But how have you done over the weekend?
JARED QUAY: I had a really good betting weekend last weekend. Actually, the last two weeks have been good for me. So I feel like I'm at that point where you hit your peak and you're like, oh, it can only go down, guys. So just know I can be cold this week because I've been on fire, all right?
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Let's just heat each other up, and let's get started with some of these look-ahead lines for week 14. The San Francisco 49ers are at the Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals laying 1 and 1/2.
JARED QUAY: Oh, I get it. I get it. This is basically a pick 'em. The Bengals are at home, but they just got destroyed by the Chargers. But hear me out. And I hate that I'm saying this. The Bengals are gonna blow out the 49ers, all right? They're already a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast or Midwest. On top of that, Cincinnati is one of the best teams against the run, all right? Their pass defense is their weaknesses, but I don't think Jimmy Garoppolo can expose that.
And I think that the 49ers need to establish the run to win. So if the Bengals can shut down the 49ers' run, I think the Bengals should be able to win. Plus, Joe Burrow is night and day when he goes against man teams versus zone teams. 49ers run both, but I think there'll be a little more man here. And if they can get Ja'Marr Chase on man coverage, I just don't think the 49ers have anyone in their secondary that can slow that man down.
So even though it's a close line, I think the Bengals on the road. I think they blow them out here, and it makes the whole AFC North muddy. And I just don't like that, but it is what it is.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Oh, we might be on the same side here. I'm going to have to watch this line to see how it moves throughout the week, Jared. However, I do like Cincinnati in this spot, even though they just lost miserably to the Chargers. The Bengals' offensive line is their main issue. I don't really fear the 49ers pass rush as much. They're very middle of the pack when it comes to sacks with just 28 on the year, 10 less than what the league lead is.
The 49ers don't have their best wide receiver slash running back, Deebo Samuel, either. He's out for the one to two week period, this being the second week. I do love Elijah Mitchell. However, the running back up against a really tough run defense. I'm willing to lay it with the Bengals at a short number.
JARED QUAY: Lock it in early. I might bet it early.
- I can't do it.
- We'll do it live.
JARED QUAY: Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings. Vikings minus 3 and 1/2.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: I'm willing to lay the points with the Vikings. Minus 3 and 1/2, give it to me. The Vikings, they just got a loss to Detroit on the road. They did beat Detroit earlier this year at home. The Vikings are 3 and 2 straight up at home this year.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, coming off of a really emotional win over their AFC North rivals, the Ravens. Big Ben was crying on the sidelines. His team was hugging him. After all the rumors this past week that Big Ben is going to retire after the season, he knew it was his last game at Heinz Field against the Ravens, a rivalry that made his career. I am going to face the Steelers coming off of this huge emotional win and take the Vikings at home where they're better with their quarterback, Kirk Cousins.
JARED QUAY: [GRUMBLES] I wanted us to be on the same page the whole time because we do well when we agree. You got to take the Steelers here, all right? That team, if Big Ben is retiring, they're trying to get to the playoffs. And I just-- any time you bet on the Vikings, you never do it with confidence. Because it doesn't matter if they were playing a high school team in Minnesota, you just never know. The Vikings can blow any lead and lose to any team any given Sunday.
With that being the case, I think that this Steelers team who just beat my Ravens team, which means they're better than people think they are. And I think the Vikings, after losing to the Lions, a lot of your team's banged up, I just don't think they have what it takes to be great. And so them by 3 and 1/2. I mean, even if they win by 3, I win my money? Get out of here. Mike Tomlin is a good coach. He'll keep it close.
- Well, let's hope so.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: The Las Vegas Raiders are at the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City is laying 8 and 1/2 points.
JARED QUAY: The Chiefs are minus 8 and 1/2. I mean, that's such a big number against a Raiders team that's unpredictable. And that's because they don't want you to bet the Chiefs. The Chiefs are going to dominate this game. I know at the beginning of the year, the Chiefs were terrible. They couldn't stop a cold. And now this team is-- they changed their gears. They just held the Broncos to, what, 9 points? I think this Chiefs team is probably Super Bowl ready now. I think they have a D-line that's very capable with Chris Jones, Melvin Ingram, and Frank Clark.
You add that against Derek Carr, who hates getting hit. When Derek Carr gets hit, he crumbles up and he throws balls to the other team. With that being the case, they're playing in a cold environment in Arrowhead in December with that being a perfect recipe for the Chiefs to blow out win again. Obviously, the Raiders defense isn't as good as the Broncos, so I don't think that they'll be able to stop the Chiefs. And I just don't see them scoring a bunch of points against this Chiefs defense. So with that being the case, give me the Chiefs minus 8 and 1/2, minus 9 and 1/2, minus 10 and 1/2, but not too much over 10 and 1/2, all right? They win by 11.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: I'm going to tease this game. Kansas City, get them through those key numbers of 7 and 3. Get this one down in a 6-point teaser to minus 2 and 1/2. I do see the Chiefs winning this game at Arrowhead. You're right, Jared, their defense has been much improved. However, I'm too worried to lay that many points in a divisional game. You also mentioned earlier that the Chiefs blew out the Raiders earlier this year. I'm not going to overreact to that happening.
I am too nervous to back the Raiders just because they've lost four of their last five. I am willing, though, to tease this game down, get Kansas City at minus 2 and 1/2, say that they win this one by a field goal or more. I don't need to worry about laying too many points and over a touchdown. Chiefs win it though.
JARED QUAY: How do you feel when you tease a game and then they win by the spread? I just want to know. Because it's the worst feeling for me ever.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: I just did it this weekend. I teased the Chargers to plus 9. They ended up winning the game outright in Cincinnati. A win is a win, Jared. That's all I care about.
JARED QUAY: I'm just saying. When the Chiefs win by 8 and 1/2, and you got them at 3 and a 1/2, and you're like why did I do that? Why did I do that?
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Well, here's the thing. If that does happen, we both win. So who cares?
JARED QUAY: You're right. A win's a win.
- This is a win-win situation.
JARED QUAY: The Los Angeles Rams at the Arizona Cardinals. Cardinals minus 3.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: The Cardinals at home, second week with their quarterback Kyler Murray back from a month off. DeAndre Hopkins, their number one wide receiver, also back. They both looked way back this past week, I love Arizona at home, divisional rivalry. I am a little nervous about laying 3 against this Rams team that everyone's down on. However, it's the OBJ curse. I've gone back on the Rams. They've really been disappointing me lately. I've tried to back them so many times, and it just doesn't work out.
They don't look the same, their defense isn't as strong as I thought they would be, and their offense just isn't clicking. Darrell Henderson, the running back, he was limited this past week due to a hamstring injury. I'm just not loving the Los Angeles Rams. If anything-- again, I know you laugh at me with the teasers-- you could tease this game.
Because I could see it flip-flopping a little bit between the minus 2 and 1/2 and a minus 3. You could get the good number of 3. I don't see this one going against the Rams, which means that if you do 6-point teaser, you get the Rams in a divisional game plus 9, which I absolutely love. Also, you just got to blind bet those Cooper Kupp longest reception props, too, because he's just incredible.
JARED QUAY: Yeah, I like the Cooper Kupp prop. But I want you to take the money that you're comfortable betting, and I want you to put it on the Cardinals minus 3 and 1/2. Minus 3. The Rams are like a car dealership, right? Let's say you have a car dealership, and they've got a Lamborghini, they've got a Range Rover, they got a nice Bentley in the front of it. And then you walk in, and it's a bunch of hoopties. Just a bunch of cars-- like this one ain't even got a good paint job. That's what the Rams are. They have star players and they have bad players.
And with that being the case, they tried to blow out the Jaguars. They did succeed, but it was the same score that the Seahawks did with Geno Smith three weeks earlier. I think this Rams team is highly overvalued. This Cardinals team beat them with all their star players in the beginning of the season, and now they're at home a week after a bye and a comfortable win in Chicago. I think this Cardinal team shuts down their run, I think Matt Stafford throws a few interceptions, and I think this Cardinals team-- I'm not gonna say blowout. That's a bad word to use in this context, but they beat the Rams pretty handily. So minus 3 is my favorite.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: I'm doing it. Two-team teaser early in the week. Kansas City, get them in a 6-point teaser down to 2 and 1/2. Get the Rams up to plus 9. Make sure it's a minus 120 teaser. I'm done.
JARED QUAY: Boom. That's an Ariel special right there that never loses.
- Let's play some football!