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Victor Vector: What Ralph Sampson's career can tell us about Victor Wembanyama's expectations

ben rohrbach
Senior writer
·11 min read
25

Welcome to the Victor Wembanyama experience. Come one, come all, for there is a 7-foot-4 Frenchman who can nutmeg you off the bounce, block your 3-pointers, step back from 3, put back his own stepback in two steps and dunk on you from a standstill outside the restricted area. Behold the human cheat code.

Here, we'll track the San Antonio Spurs rookie's weekly progress relative to the most anticipated prospects of the past 50 years, using Yahoo Sports' own default fantasy basketball settings to rank their production.

But first a few words ...

Reading Sports Illustrated's October 1983 cover story on Ralph Sampson is a window into an alternate universe, where we have seen Victor Wembanyama's career before and took nothing from the cautionary tales about hyping a skinny 7-foot-4 athletic marvel with an outside shot beyond any achievable stratum.

"Each of the great centers in the league — Wilt, Russell, Kareem, Walton — all had something that made them unique, that set them apart from the rest," Artis Gilmore, a 7-foot-2 wonder himself, told SI's Anthony Cotton. "With Ralph, it's his mobility and outside capabilities. He could be the best big man ever at it."

Indeed, Sampson averaged 21 points (52.3 FG%, 66.1 FT%), 11.1 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and two assists a game as a rookie on the 29-win Houston Rockets. His potential was clear, but he was not strong enough, spent too much time on the outside and was more a jack-of-all-trades than a master of some, people said.

Sound familiar? Forty years ago this week, Sampson posted a string of monster stat lines, including a 28-point, 18-rebound, 13-block triple-double, and everyone agreed on the Rockets: "It's just a matter of time."

San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama blocks shot of the Chicago Bulls' Andre Drummond in the second half at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio on Dec. 8, 2023. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images)
San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama blocks shot of the Chicago Bulls' Andre Drummond in the second half at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio on Dec. 8, 2023. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images)

Wembanyama, who is almost four years Sampson's junior as a rookie, collected 21 points, 20 rebounds, four assists and four blocks Friday night, and his Spurs lost to the sub-.500 Chicago Bulls 121-112. San Antonio is 3-18, losers of a franchise record-tying 16 straight games, last in the Western Conference.

Sampson's words in that SI piece still reverberate: "Every day I feel more and more comfortable with what I'm doing. But there's still time. Time is always there, enough time to do everything that must be done."

Time is always there. He was partly right. The Rockets received a second straight No. 1 overall pick in 1984, drafted Hakeem Olajuwon and won 48 games in Sampson's second year. Through three seasons, Sampson averaged a 20-point double-double, missed a grand total of three games and reached the 1986 NBA Finals.

Then, four days before a fourth straight All-Star bid to open his career, everyone's greatest fears for a 7-4 wunderkind came to fruition. Sampson tore the cartilage in his left knee, returned eight weeks later and was never the same. His unreliable health and reported complaints about playing out of position created friction with Houston's then-coach Bill Fitch, and by December 1987 Sampson was the subject of a stunning trade.

Ralph Sampson of the Houston Rockets sits next to head coach Bill Fitch on the bench against the Washington Bullets during an NBA game circa 1984 at the Capital Centre in Landover, Maryland. Sampson played for the Rockets from 1983-87. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images)
Ralph Sampson of the Houston Rockets sits next to head coach Bill Fitch on the bench against the Washington Bullets during an NBA game circa 1984 at the Capital Centre in Landover, Maryland. Sampson played for the Rockets from 1983-87. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

Sampson was a bit player in his first full season on the Golden State Warriors, averaging 6.4 points in 17.8 minutes a game, splitting time between starts and a reserve role. His NBA career was over three years later.

Sampson attempted 58 3-pointers in his career. He played through a hip problem that contributed to his knee issues, and he returned too soon from injury at every opportunity. In the modern game, with modern medicine, who knows what Sampson could have been? We hope to never say the same of Wembanyama.

Very rarely is something the first of its kind anymore. We can safely say we have seen someone akin to Wembanyama before, but maybe — just maybe — we will get to see potential realized in San Antonio.

We will find out if it all comes out in the wash. That is what the tracker is for. Before we get started, a key:

  • Season averages: Points (FG%/3P%/FT%), rebounds, assists (turnovers), steals, blocks

  • Advanced: Player efficiency rating, true-shooting percentage, win shares per 48, box plus-minus

  • Through X games (record): Total PTS-REB-AST-STL-BLK, TO (FGA-FGM, 3PA-3PM, FTA-FTM)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week X): Default season settings

Without further ado, the Victor Vector rankings: Week 1 (16th) • Week 2 (6th) • Week 3 (6th) • Week 4 (5th) • Week 5 (3rd) • Week 6 (4th) • Week 7 ...

20. Yao Ming, Houston Rockets

  • 2002-03: 13.5 PTS (50/50/81), 8.2 REB, 1.8 BLK, 1.7 AST (2.1 TO), 0.4 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 20.6 PER, 57.0 TS%, .176 WS/48, 2.2 BPM

  • Through 21 games (12-9): 245-154-24-5-32, 40 TO (95-162 FG, 0-0 3P, 55-76 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 485.6

19. Kevin Durant, Seattle SuperSonics

  • 2007-08: 20.3 PTS (43/29/87), 4.4 REB, 2.4 AST (2.9 TO), 1.0 STL, 0.9 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 15.8 PER, 51.9 TS%, .040 WS/48, -0.1 BPM

  • Through 21 games (5-16): 427-96-40-20-28, 69 TO (144-366 FG, 28-89 3P, 111-132 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 518.8

18. Isiah Thomas, Detroit Pistons

  • 1981-82: 17 PTS (42/29/70), 7.8 AST (4.2 TO), 2.9 REB, 2.1 STL, 0.2 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 14.5 PER, 48.7 TS%, .046 WS/48, -0.8 BPM

  • Through 21 games (8-13): 382-55-141-40*-4*, 80* TO (138-311 FG, 2-15* 3P, 104-149 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 523.8

(*Some game-to-game statistics unavailable. Estimates based on season averages.)

17. Patrick Ewing, New York Knicks

  • 1985-86: 20 PTS (47/0/74), 9 REB, 2.1 BLK, 2.0 AST (3.4 TO), 1.1 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 17.4 PER, 52.6 TS%, .084 WS/48, 1.1 BPM

  • Through 21 games (5-16): 371-166-34-19-38, 65 TO (142-309 FG, 0-2 3P, 87-116 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 546.45

16. Grant Hill, Detroit Pistons

  • 1994-95: 19.9 PTS (48/15/73), 6.4 REB, 5 AST (2.9 TO), 1.8 STL, 0.9 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 19 PER, 54.1 TS%, .097 WS/48, 2.0 BPM

  • Through 21 games (9-12): 350-94-76-35-20, 45 TO (126-258 FG, 3-12 3P, 95-118 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 568.4

15. Allen Iverson, Philadelphia 76ers

  • 1996-97: 23.5 PTS (42/34/70), 7.5 AST (4.4 TO), 4.1 REB, 2.1 STL, 0.3 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 18 PER, 51.3 TS%, .065 WS/48, 0.9 BPM

  • Through 21 games (7-14): 378-81-120-37-8, 94 TO (124-316 FG, 38-108 3P, 92-141 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 579.55

14. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks

  • 2018-19: 21.2 PTS (43/33/71), 7.8 REB, 6 AST (3.4 TO), 1.1 STL, 0.3 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 19.6 PER, 54.5 TS%, .101 WS/48, 3.9 BPM

  • Through 21 games (11-10): 369-130-85-22-8, 75 TO (129-291 FG, 47-123 3P, 64-81 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 631.8

13. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

  • 2003-04: 20.9 PTS (42/29/75), 5.9 AST (3.5 TO), 5.5 REB, 1.6 STL, 0.7 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 18.3 PER, 48.8 TS%, .078 WS/48, 1.7 BPM

  • Through 21 games (5-16): 347-142-130-27-13, 76 TO (135-337 FG, 17-54 3P, 60-84 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 645.85

12. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs

  • 1997-98: 21.1 PTS (55/0/66), 11.9 REB, 2.7 AST (3.4 TO), 2.5 B LK, 0.7 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 22.6 PER, 57.7 TS%, .192 WS/48, 4.6 BPM

  • Through 21 games (11-10): 327-237-41-14-53, 71 TO (140-259 FG, 0-2 3P, 47-92 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 661.45

11. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers

  • 2010-11: 22.5 PTS (51/29/64), 12.1 REB, 3.8 AST (2.7 TO), 0.8 STL, 0.5 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 21.9 PER, 54.9 TS%, .152 WS/48, 2.6 BPM

  • Through 21 games (4-17): 432-248-56-16-12, 56 TO (168-321 FG, 0-1 3P, 96-169 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 664.8

10. Magic Johnson, Los Angeles Lakers

  • 1979-80: 18 PTS (53/23/81), 7.7 REB, 7.3 AST, 2.4 STL (4.0 TO), 0.5 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 20.6 PER, 60.2 TS%, .180 WS/48, 4.8 BPM

  • Through 21 games (14-7): 338-135-129-41-8, 68 TO (124-233 FG, 2-6 3P, 88-111 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 670.4

9. Hakeem Olajuwon, Houston Rockets

  • 1984-85: 20.6 PTS (54/0/61), 11.9 REB, 2.7 BLK, 1.4 AST (2.9 TO), 1.2 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 21.1 PER, 56.4 TS%, .168 WS/48, 2.1 BPM

  • Through 21 games (13-8): 403-243-30-20-54, 65 TO (163-316 FG, 0-0 3P, 77-128 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 719.8

8. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets

  • 2005-06: 16.1 PTS (43/28/85), 7.8 AST (2.3 TO), 5.1 REB, 2.2 STL, 0.1 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 22.1 PER, 54.6 TS%, .178 WS/48, 5.2 BPM

  • Through 21 games (9-12): 346-124-148-46-1, 55 TO (116-262 FG, 14-52 3P, 100-125 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 732.35

7. Michael Jordan, Chicago Bulls

  • 1984-85: 28.2 PTS (52/17/85), 6.5 REB, 5.9 AST (3.5 TO), 2.4 STL, 0.8 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 25.8 PER, 59.2 TS%, .213 WS/48, 7.3 BPM

  • Through 21 games (12-9): 527-107-89-55-30, 81 TO (195-389 FG, 2-8 3P, 135-161 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 735.2

6. Larry Bird, Boston Celtics

  • 1979-80: 21.3 PTS (47/41/84), 10.4 REB, 4.5 AST (3.2 TO), 1.7 STL, 0.6 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 20.5 PER, 53.8 TS%, .182 WS/48, 4.5 BPM

  • Through 21 games (17-4): 399-207-97-40-17, 75 TO (164-348 FG, 7-21 3P, 64-78 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 758.9

5. Dikembe Mutombo, Denver Nuggets

  • 1991-92: 16.6 PTS (49/0/64), 12.3 REB, 3 BLK, 2 AST (3.5 TO), 0.6 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 16.5 PER, 54.0 TS%, .086 WS/48, 0.0 BPM

  • Through 21 games (9-12): 399-293-43-15-60, 84 TO (146-312 FG, 0-0 3P, 107-160 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 774.6

4. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Victor Wembanyama headshot
Victor Wembanyama
PF - SA - #1
2023 - 2024 season
21.4
Pts
10.6
Reb
3.9
Ast
3.6
Blk
29:40
Min

  • 2023-24: 19.0 PTS (43/26/82), 10.2 REB, 2.6 AST (3.3 TO), 1.3 STL, 2.7 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 17.9 PER, 51.8 TS%, .005 WS/48, -1.4 BPM

  • Through 21 games (3-18): 380-204-51-26-54, 66 TO (141-328 FG, 26-102 3P, 72-88 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 783.4

3. Ralph Sampson, Houston Rockets

  • 1983-84: 21 PTS (52/25/66), 11.1 REB, 2.4 BLK, 2 AST (3.6 TO), 0.9 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 20.1 PER, 55.1 TS%, .108 WS/48, 0.9 BPM

  • Through 21 games (8-13): 445-259-48-13-65, 70 TO (184-345 FG, 0-1 3P, 77-115 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 820.5

2. David Robinson, San Antonio Spurs

  • 1989-90: 24.3 PTS (53/0/73), 12 REB, 3.9 BLK, 2.0 AST (3.1 TO), 1.7 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 26.3 PER, 59.7 TS%, .241 WS/48, 6.9 BPM

  • Through 21 games (15-6): 467-263-37-35-55, 66 TO (149-282 FG, 0-0 3P, 169-232 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 857.1

1. Shaquille O'Neal, Orlando Magic

  • 1992-93: 23.4 PTS (56/0/59), 13.9 REB, 3.5 BLK, 1.9 AST (3.8 TO), 0.7 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 22.9 PER, 58.4 TS%, .163 WS/48, 3.5 BPM

  • Through 21 games (12-9): 466-310-34-18-86, 88 TO (178-333 FG, 0-0 3P, 110-201 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 7): 889.4