USC’s success under Lincoln Riley is predictable, but it also contains unexpected plot twists
We said this a lot throughout the offseason: Of course Lincoln Riley can win in Year 1 at USC. We don’t have to wait two years. We don’t have to go through a long rebuilding process.
He’s Lincoln Freakin’ Riley. He’s bringing Caleb Williams with him! And oh look! Jordan Addison is coming! So is Travis Dye! And Mekhi Blackmon! And oh, there’s Eric Gentry coming aboard, too!
Lincoln Riley quickly assembled a roster with quality players. Why wouldn’t USC win a lot of games in Year 1 under Riley? People focused on the new faces and the lack of roster cohesion, forgetting that the new faces were really good and coachable players.
Yet, there are some surprises attached to this USC team. We can be honest about that. Let’s go into the details on how Lincoln Riley has succeeded in the first half of his first season at USC:
CALEB WILLIAMS
What isn’t surprising about USC’s rise is that Caleb Williams has played well. The big stat: only one turnover in half a season. He will make some inaccurate throws, but rarely to the other team.
FUMBLES
USC hasn’t lost one yet. In six games. In half a season. That’s quite remarkable. It also magnifies how much of a stud Travis Dye has been. Speaking of Dye …
DYE HIGH
I’m not sure any USC football analyst or expert was ready to absorb the full measure of Travis Dye’s contributions to this team. As a leader, as a blocker, as a receiver, and as a runner, Dye has delivered it all to Lincoln Riley and to each USC teammate. Caleb Williams will get the Heisman buzz, but Dye is the offensive MVP through six games. He knits this offense together.
O-LINE HEALTH
The offensive line has not been particularly healthy the past few weeks, particularly Courtland Ford and Justin Dedich. USC’s ability to win in spite of ideal O-line health is a plot twist relative to this season and its expectations.
ALEX GRINCH
This is where we get into the unexpected elements of USC’s success. Did anyone think Grinch would be this good this quickly as USC’s defensive coordinator, keeping in mind how many Clay Helton holdovers there were on this side of the ball?
Riley showed a lot of faith in Grinch by keeping him on staff and bringing him to USC. He could have gone for bigger-name coordinators. His loyalty to Grinch was questioned, and fairly so. That loyalty is being paid back many times over.
USC POINTS ALLOWED
USC is averaging 35 points per game in its non-Rice games this season, which is actually fairly modest. We haven’t seen a 50-point game in Pac-12 play. I certainly thought USC would need to win a 50-42 kind of game at some point. It hasn’t happened yet.
USC is 6-0 because the Trojans are allowing — in their non-Rice games — an average of just under 20 points per game. Allowing 30 seemed to be a reasonable target for the year. The Trojans are more than 10 points better than that. It’s a truly stunning achievement by Grinch and USC’s defensive unit.
ERIC GENTRY
The speed, the length, the reach, the disruptiveness, the pass deflections — Gentry has been a central source of USC’s defensive metamorphosis.
TULI TUIPULOTU
Sometimes, Caleb Williams puts this team on his back. Saturday, Tuli Tuipulotu put this USC team on his back, delivering three sacks and being a one-man wrecking ball. He and Gentry are co-defensive MVPs through six games.
PLAYER DEVELOPMENT
Guys who are down the depth chart have had to step in and play under pressure. Consider Anthony Beavers when Calen Bullock was ejected against Washington State. He gave up that one big pass … and then nothing of significance after that. That’s player development: having guys lower on the depth chart ready to perform when called upon.
SOLOMON BYRD
Unsung Hero No. 1 on this defense.
TYRONE TALENI
Unsung Hero No. 2 on this defense.
MEKHI BLACKMON
The stability he has given this defense cannot be emphasized enough.
CEYAIR WRIGHT
What an enormous leap in maturity from his 2021 season at USC.
BOBBY HASKINS
When Courtland Ford went down with an injury, Haskins held the fort. There were questions about his own health and availability in August. He has been a trooper — and a savior — for this offensive line unit.
NEILON NUDGE
USC isn’t 6-0 without Brett Neilon’s play late in Corvallis against Oregon State.
JORDAN ADDISON
Travis Dye is the offensive MVP through six games, but Addison’s ability to stretch the field draws attention from opposing defenses and certainly makes it easier for Dye to do what he does best.
PAC-12 QB PLAY
We’re seeing 2021 Pac-12 QBs falter this year: Chance Nolan has faltered. Utah’s Cam Rising has faltered. It was easy to think that USC would thrive because Caleb Williams was so much better than other quarterbacks in the conference. In truth, it’s less about Williams being spectacular (he has been very good, but not amazing, through six games) than about those other quarterbacks not measuring up.
Caleb didn’t outplay Nolan in the Oregon State game so much as Nolan crumbled while Caleb was below-average. Nolan was worse more than Caleb was better. That bit of nuance might seem pointless, but the emphasis is that sometimes players win games; other times players lose games. USC is facing opponents — and opposing QBs — who are losing games.
We’ll see if Cam Rising rises or falls against USC this coming weekend.
PAC-12 OFFENSE
USC’s offense was expected to soar. It has been very good, but with the O-line injuries, it hasn’t been able to fully take off. The Trojans have been surprisingly successful because other Pac-12 offenses have frankly stumbled against them. Yes, Alex Grinch’s defense has a lot to do with this, but it remains true that opposing offenses have failed to maximize opportunities against USC. We’re still waiting for a Pac-12 offense to fully exploit USC’s defense and play a complete game. It hasn’t happened in four conference games this year.
FINAL THOUGHT
USC should make the Pac-12 Championship Game if it goes 8-1 in the conference. Given that the Trojans have Arizona, Cal and Colorado on their remaining schedule, the only two games which seem like possible losses are this week at Utah and Nov. 19 against UCLA.
It’s really simple: As long as the Trojans don’t lose both of those games, they’ll be in Las Vegas in December.
