Updated Top-25 Rankings: Ducks rise, Washington plummets after coaching carousel madness
Well over a month ago, I released my prediction for what the top-25 rankings in the college football world would look like this offseason, giving a view of the power balance in the nation based on which teams saw the highest number of starters returning, and the biggest boosts via the transfer portal.
That set of rankings came out on December 14th. It might as well have been a year ago for all that has changed since then.
We’ve seen highly impactful transfers make their commitments, and legendary coaches depart their schools, causing other coaches to pick up and leave in a haste, laying waste to some of the most talented rosters across the nation in an apocalyptic domino effect.
While I was definitely early on my top 25 predictions, even the ‘Way-too-early Top 25’ that ESPN puts out every year after the national championship game feels incredibly out of date at this point. It feels like everything needs to be updated with the knowledge that we now have. It should be worth noting that the Washington Huskies, who were ranked No. 16 in my first top-25, have completely dropped out of the rankings now that their coach has left them, and much of the roster had chosen to depart Seattle as well.
So that’s what I did. Here are my updated top-25 rankings for the 2024 season as we enter the end of January and continue to traverse the transfer portal madness and coaching changes.
Georgia Bulldogs
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2023 CFP Ranking: 6th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 3
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 1
Analysis: We saw down the stretch in 2023 that Carson Beck was really coming into his own, and while Georgia was not as dominant as in years past, they are still playing at the top of the sport. I don’t expect that to change any time soon. I have the Bulldogs at No. 1 on this list, but they could very well be No. 2, swapped with Ohio State. In the end, the continuity at quarterback is what gives them the edge, in my opinion.
Ohio State Buckeyes
2023 CFP Ranking: 7th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 6
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 5
Analysis: We need to wait and see how good incoming transfer QB Will Howard can be, but the talent and coaching are good enough in Columbus to consider them a top-5 team going into 2024. They are the biggest risers for me since the initial rankings thanks to the massive additions they’ve made via the transfer portal, such as S Caleb Downs. There’s a real argument that OSU should be No. 1, but I want to see what Will Howard can do in Columbus before I put them up there.
Oregon Ducks
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2023 CFP Ranking: 8th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 5
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 3
Analysis: It’s going to be hard to replace Bo Nix, but getting Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel on the roster was a huge win. The Ducks have also added top-ranked transfers like WR Evan Stewart and DL Ja’Maree Caldwell while continuing to push for elite CB Jabbar Muhammad as well. It’s pretty clear to me that Oregon should be considered one of the top teams in the nation going into the next year based on roster construction alone.
Texas Longhorns
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2023 CFP Ranking: 3rd
Our Previous Ranking: No. 4
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 2
Analysis: With Quinn Ewers back for 2024, Texas is right back in the thick of the College Football Playoff race once again. It will be interesting to see how they navigate the new SEC schedule, but they definitely have the talent to succeed, and they’ve added some of the best players in the nation via the transfer portal so far.
Ole Miss Rebels
2023 CFP Ranking: 11th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 8
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 7
Analysis: Lane Kiffin has been able to keep the Rebels competing at a high level as of late, and the ceiling is once again high for this team, especially considering how well they’ve used the transfer portal to bolster their roster.
Michigan Wolverines
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2023 CFP Ranking: 1st
Our Previous Ranking: No. 2
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 6
Analysis: J.J. McCarthy, and Blake Corum have already announced that they won’t be back in 2024, and Jim Harbaugh could very well be off to the NFL as well. Right now, I think Michigan has the talent to compete, but if Harbaugh officially leaves, they might drop another couple of spots.
Utah Utes
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2023 CFP Ranking: N/A
Our Previous Ranking: No. 7
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 13
Analysis: Utah? This high on the list? Remember, Cam Rising is returning for one more year, and when healthy, he is among the best passers in the nation. The Utes also have one of the best coaches in the nation, and they should be able to benefit from a weaker Big 12 Conference that no longer has Texas and Oklahoma at the top.
Alabama Crimson Tide
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2023 CFP Ranking: 4th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 1
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 4
Analysis: The departure of Nick Saban really hurts, and while Kalen DeBoer is a great coach coming in, the Crimson Tide has lost a ton of its roster to the transfer portal since the coaching change, and they might struggle to keep up with the rest of the SEC without the roster we are used to.
Missouri Tigers
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2023 CFP Ranking: 9th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 9
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 8
Analysis: Missouri was really impressive in 2023, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. With Brady Cook, Cody Schrader, and Luther Burden leading the way on offense, I think we can expect another solid season from the Tigers.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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2023 CFP Ranking: 16th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 10
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 10
Analysis: The Sam Hartman experiment didn’t exactly work out for Notre Dame to the standards that fans were hoping for, so we’ll see if Riley Leonard can be any better. While the Fighting Irish have the talent to compete with anyone, there’s a sense that the offensive playcalling needs to improve before they can return to the highest level of the sport.
Oklahoma Sooners
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2023 CFP Ranking: 12th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 11
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 15
Analysis: The Jackson Arnold era is starting at Oklahoma with Dillon Gabriel transferring to Oregon, and with an explosive offense matched with a really solid defense, I think the Sooners have a high ceiling next year. What will be key is seeing how they can navigate a toughened-up SEC schedule.
LSU Tigers
2023 CFP Ranking: 13th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 12
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 14
Analysis: LSU doesn’t have Jayden Daniels to keep them afloat anymore, but that is a very talented roster that will now be led by Ben Gulbranson. If the defense can improve to even an average level, I think they have a shot at being pretty good.
Penn State Nittany Lions
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2023 CFP Ranking: 10th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 13
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 12
Analysis: We saw QB Drew Allar start to settle into his own near the end of the year for Penn State, so they might have a good chance at rising up near the top of the Big Ten rankings and be a national factor if that continues in 2024.
Florida State Seminoles
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2023 CFP Ranking: 5th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 15
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 16
Analysis: Losing a QB like Jordan Travis is hard, and I think we all want to see a bit more from DJ Uiagalelei before we start saying that the Seminoles will be playoff-bound again. However, that defense was absolutely elite in 2023, and should be very dominant once again.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
2023 CFP Ranking: 20th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 17
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 18
Analysis: This team was carried by RB Ollie Gordon III in 2023, who ended the year as the No. 7 vote-getter in the Heisman Trophy race. He will once again need to have that type of impact for the Cowboys, mixed with a solid defense, and Oklahoma State can be pretty good once again.
Clemson Tigers
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2023 CFP Ranking: 22nd
Our Previous Ranking: No. 18
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 19
Analysis: If Cade Klubnik continues to improve, I think Clemson has a pretty good chance of being a player in the ACC once again, but after a mediocre 2023 season, the Tigers will need to see more from their QB in order to get back into the playoff conversation.
Tennessee Volunteers
2023 CFP Ranking: 21st
Our Previous Ranking: No. 20
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 17
Analysis: The Joe Milton era is over at Tennessee, so bring on Nico Iamaleava Jr. and let’s see what the young QB can do. If the redshirt freshman is as good as we expected when coming out of high school, I think that Tennessee can be a pretty good team, but they need to prove it first.
Kansas State Cowboys
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2023 CFP Ranking: 25th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 21
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 21
Analysis: Chris Klieman has proven himself to be a very good coach at Kansas State, but the team will be turning to Avery Johnson after QB Will Howard announced his transfer this offseason. The ceiling is high, but as become a common theme among teams ranked near this level, we need to see it first.
SMU Mustangs
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2023 CFP Ranking: 24th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 19
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 24
Analysis: SMU walked away with the AAC Championship in 2023, and they are coached well enough to be in the mix for one of the playoff spots in the newly expanded format, with QB Preston Stone leading the way.
Iowa Hawkeyes
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2023 CFP Ranking: 17th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 22
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 25
Analysis: Will Kirk Ferentz still be the coach? Will Iowa have any semblance of an offense? Those are a couple of answers that we need before projecting Iowa to be any sort of good in 2024, but with a defense as strong as theirs, you can put them in the top 25, at the very least.
Louisville Cardinals
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2023 CFP Ranking: 15th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 23
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 22
Analysis: The coaching job that Jeff Brohm did at Louisville in 2023 was impressive, getting them to the ACC Championship despite having a roster that could have used some help. We will see how they can improve via the portal this offseason, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals back in the mix.
Arizona Wildcats
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2023 CFP Ranking: 14th
Our Previous Ranking: No. 14
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: No. 9
Analysis: There may have been no hotter team in the nation at the end of the year than the Arizona Wildcats, who struck gold with redshirt freshman Noah Fifita under center. However, with Jedd Fisch taking off for Washington, their high ceiling in 2024 was hurt a little bit. However, some of the top players appear to be staying, willing to play under new coach Brent Brennan. There’s still a chance they find a lot of success going forward.
Miami Hurricanes
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
2023 CFP Ranking: N/A
Our Previous Ranking: Unranked
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: Unranked
Analysis: Mario Cristobal back in the top 25? Well, I think it has to do more with the addition of QB Cam Ward via the transfer portal, and an undeniably talented roster that has been built up via some top-ranked recruiting classes over the years. I think that the expectations in 2024 should be for the Hurricanes to at least compete at the top of the ACC. If they don’t, Cristobal could be canned by his alma mater before the end of the year.
Colorado Buffaloes
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2023 CFP Ranking: N/A
Our Previous Ranking: No. 24
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: Unranked
Analysis: Does Colorado deserve to be ranked in the top 25 based on merit? Definitely not. Do I think we will still see them near the fringes just so networks like ESPN and FOX can promote them as a top team and continue to ride the Coach Prime Ratings Train? I wouldn’t be surprised. Deion Sanders is working to retool via the transfer portal, and he’s doing a good job of it so far. With a better offensive line, and a very talented QB in Shedeur Sanders, I could see Colorado being ranked to start the year, though I think it’s more of a hype thing than anything.
Kentucky Wildcats
2023 CFP Ranking: N/A
Our Previous Ranking: No. 25
ESPN Top-25 Ranking: Unranked
Analysis: There have been few teams who have used the transfer portal as well as Kentucky so far this offseason to improve the roster, bringing in former 5-star QB Brock Vandergriff from Georgia, while also adding top WR prospects like Ja’Mori Maclin and Raymond Cottrell. The Wildcats also added Ohio State RB Chip Traynum. We’ll see if they can compete in the SEC, but I think they should be ranked inside the top 25 to start the year at the very least.
