Updated look at how the ESPN matchup predictor projects Oklahoma’s remaining schedule
The Oklahoma Sooners’ 73-0 win over the Arkansas State Red Wolves was eye-opening. It doesn’t matter if it’s the Red Wolves or the Texas A&M Aggies, anytime you score 70 or more points and shut out your opponent, it’s kind of a big deal.
Now this game will not win Oklahoma a Big 12 title or put it in the national title conversation, but it’s a strong step in the right direction in Year 2 of Brent Venables.
ESPN analytics took note of the Sooners’ week one dominance in their updated win projections for the 2023 season in their matchup predictor.
The ESPN matchup predictor runs thousands of simulations with data derived from recent results on the field and recruiting.
Now that ESPN has Week 1 data to plug into the simulations, the results have become even more favorable. Let’s take a look at how the ESPN matchup predictor sees the rest of Oklahoma’s schedule playing out.
Sept. 9: SMU Mustangs (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 89.9% (Up from 83.2%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 5-1-1
Projected running record: 2-0
Sept. 16: Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (Tulsa)
Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium (Tulsa)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 96.5% (Up from 91.5%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 20-7-1
Projected running record: 3-0
Sept. 23: Cincinnati Bearcats (Cincinnati)
Nippert Stadium (Cincinnati)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 78.2% (Up from 72.4%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 2-0
Projected running record: 4-0
Sept. 30: Iowa State Cyclones (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 89.2% (Up from 81.7%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 79-7-2
Projected running record: 5-0
Oct. 7: Texas Longhorns (Dallas)
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 58.9% (Up from 37.2%)
All-Time Series: Texas leads 63-50-5
Projected running record: 6-0
Oct. 14: Bye Week
Reaching the bye week undefeated would be an incredible accomplishment. It will feel especially sweet because it means the Sooners avenged their Red River Rivalry loss from 2022.
Oct. 21: UCF Knights (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 81.2% (Up from 75.4%)
All-Time Series: First meeting between the two teams.
Projected running record: 7-0
Oct. 28: Kansas Jayhawks (Lawrence)
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium (Lawrence)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 90.9% (Up from 82.2%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 80-27-6
Projected running record: 8-0
Nov. 4: BEDLAM - Oklahoma State (Stillwater)
Boone Pickens Stadium (Stillwater)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 86.9% (Up from 67.8%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 91-19-7
Projected running record: 9-0
Nov. 11: West Virginia Mountaineers (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 94.7% (Up from 88.3%)
All-Time Series: 11-3
Projected running record: 10-0
Nov. 18: BYU Cougars (Provo)
LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 91.3% (Up from 78.7%)
All-Time Series: BYU leads 2-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 24: TCU Horned Frogs (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 88.1% (Up from 67.7%)
All-Time Series: 17-6
Projected running record: 12-0
Analysis
The Oklahoma Sooners’ 73-0 win over Arkansas State was enough to move the win probability in a positive direction for the Sooners in every game the rest of the way. It’s just Week 1, but after the win, Oklahoma is now projected to go undefeated and has a win probability of 90% or better in four of their remaining 11 games.
They have just two games on the remaining schedule where their win probability is lower than 80%: their Big 12 opener on the road against Cincinnati and their date with Texas in the Cotton Bowl.
Notably, the only game that the simulations projected Oklahoma to lose heading into the season was Texas. After Week 1, that projection flipped big to Oklahoma.
The real proving ground will be on the football field, but after one week, the computers love what Oklahoma’s doing in 2023. They have to keep the same effort going this week against SMU.
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