Updated FiveThirtyEight Playoff predictions after third CFP Rankings release
We’re getting down to the wire of the 2021 college football season, and once again, Ohio State is firmly in the mix. The Buckeyes are really the only team that’s been in contention down the stretch of each and every year the College Football Playoff has been in place. And so it is again.
But what are the Buckeyes’ chances of getting into all the fun? In fact, what are the other contenders’ odds of making the four teams that get to battle it out for national supremacy?
We have the same questions, so we keep tabs on the folks over at over FiveThirtyEight to see what their analytics say about every team that has a shot at the CFP. We kick the tires twice a week these days — once after the weekend’s games, and again after the CFP Rankings are unveiled midweek.
Here we are now two days removed from the third release of the College Football Playoff Rankings, one in which Ohio State remained at No. 4, so we’re at it again.
Here is Ohio State and the other contenders’ chances of making the College Football Playoff as we sit here in Week 12 after the latest rankings reveal.
Baylor Bears (8-2)
Nov 13, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; A view of the Baylor Bears students and fans as they celebrate with linebacker Terrel Bernard (2) on the field after the game between the Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma Sooners at McLane Stadium. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – at Kansas State
11/27 – vs. Texas Tech
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
10% (down from 12%)
Chances if win out
35%
Michigan State Spartans (9-1)
Oct 9, 2021; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans running back Kenneth Walker III (9) carries the ball past Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive lineman Ifeanyi Maijeh (88) during the first half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – at Ohio State
11/27 – vs. Penn State
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
10% (no change)
Chances if win out
99% (no change)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-1)
Nov 6, 2021; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons quarterback Sam Hartman (10) looks to pass in the fourth quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – at Clemson
11/27 – at Boston College
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
11% (no change)
Chances if win out
63% (no change)
Oklahoma Sooners (9-1)
OU’s Jadon Haselwood (11) and Spencer Rattler (7) celebrate after a touchdown during a 76-0 win against Western Carolina on Saturday night in Norman. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – vs. Iowa State
11/27 – at Oklahoma State
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
20% (up from 17%)
Chances if win out
86% (up from 77%)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1)
Sep 5, 2021; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Joe Wilkins Jr. (5) celebrates with running back Kyren Williams (23) after a touchdown in the second quarter against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – vs. Georgia Tech
11/27 – at Stanford
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
23% (no change)
Chances if win out
31% (no change)
Michigan Wolverines (9-1)
Michigan marching band takes the field before the Northern Illinois game in Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 18, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – at Maryland
11/27 – vs. Ohio State
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
24% (no change)
Chances if win out
83% (up from 82%)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-1)
Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders (3) celebrates during a 24-14 win against Baylor on Oct. 2. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – at Texas Tech
11/27 – vs. Oklahoma
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
33% (no change)
Chances if win out
95% (down from 96%)
Cincinnati Bearcats (10-0)
Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell leads the Cincinnati Bearcats onto the field to warm up before the NCAA football game between Cincinnati Bearcats and Murray State Racers on Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – vs. SMU
11/26 – at Eastern Carolina
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
36% (up from 34%)
Chances if win out
73% (up from 70%)
Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1)
Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) races up the sideline for a touchdown during the first quarter of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – vs. Michigan State
11/27 – at Michigan
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
40% (down from 41%)
Chances if win out
99% (no change)
Oregon Ducks (9-1)
Sep 4, 2021; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal instructs players during warm-ups before a game against the Fresno State Bulldogs at Autzen Stadium. Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – at Utah
11/27 – vs. Oregon State
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
41% (no change)
Chances if win out
>99% (up from 99%)
Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1)
Jan 1, 2020; Orlando, Florida, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide mascot Big Al entertains the fans before the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Camping World Stadium. Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – vs. Arkansas
11/27 – at Auburn
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
58% (no change)
Chances if win out
> 99% (no change)
Georgia Bulldogs (10-0)
Dec 12, 2020; Columbia, Missouri, USA; A detailed view of a Georgia Bulldogs helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/20 – vs. Charleston Southern
11/27 – at Georgia Tech
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
81% (no change)
Chances if win out
>99% (no change)
[listicle id=67572]
Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes and opinion.
1
1
1
1
1
1
