Unpacking Mississippi State football's path to bowl eligibility after ugly loss to LSU
STARKVILLE — From the oddsmakers to the pundits, Mississippi State football was projected to be where it’s at after three games into the 2023 season. The Bulldogs, coming off an ugly 41-14 loss against LSU on Saturday, are 2-1 with wins against Southeastern Louisiana and Arizona.
However, even with MSU being where it was expected, there is concern surrounding coach Zach Arnett and his staff. The offense has lacked a rhythm and is clearly having a tougher transition than suggested by coaches in the offseason. The defense, despite returning a pair of sixth-year linebackers, is struggling to get pressure and has holes in the secondary.
As a result, Mississippi State’s chances of staying on course with optimistic predictions appear to be thinning. The Bulldogs could be underdogs in their remaining seven SEC games.
However, a formula remains to reaching bowl eligibility: Secure the must-wins and pull off an SEC upset. Here's a look at MSU's path to a bowl game.
The must-wins: Western Michigan, Southern Miss and Kentucky
A loss to either Western Michigan (Oct. 7), Kentucky (Nov. 4) or Southern Miss (Nov. 18) could eliminate any hope of postseason play. However, MSU should beat the trio.
Southern Miss is off to a 1-2 start with losses against Florida State and Tulane. Those are two respectable losses, but it’s evident against higher talent the Golden Eagles struggle. Western Michigan is a bottom four MAC team, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index.
Kentucky is a formidable foe, but the Wildcats likely provide the easiest home SEC game for MSU. That’s the one contest where Mississippi State could be favored, and the Bulldogs will have to take advantage. The home team has won the last eight meetings in the crossover series.
The home games: Alabama and Ole Miss
Mississippi State hasn’t beaten Alabama since Nick Saban’s first season as coach in 2007. If MSU can clean up its play, it appears this year poses the best chance to end that skid. Saban has uncertainty at quarterback along with surprising questions in the trenches. Still, it’ll be a lofty task for MSU on Sept. 30.
The Egg Bowl (Nov. 23) is an annual toss-up bordering on chaos. Ole Miss (3-0) is off to a hot start and appears to be an SEC West contender, but it’s still hard to feel confident either way given the history of this rivalry. A win against Ole Miss would go a long way for Arnett in his first season.
The road games: South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn and Texas A&M
As expected coming into the season, Mississippi State’s four road games are winnable if the Bulldogs don’t play like they did against LSU.
It starts Saturday (6:30 p.m., SEC Network) against South Carolina (1-2, 0-1 SEC). USC battled at No. 1 Georgia and led at halftime, but the Gamecocks have been inconsistent under coach Shane Beamer. South Carolina could come out flat against MSU.
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Arkansas (Oct. 21) just dropped a home game to BYU. Auburn (Oct. 28) is still transitioning under coach Hugh Freeze. Texas A&M (Nov. 11) is struggling to have elite talent translate to wins.
One win on the road could secure bowl hopes.
Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State football's path to bowl game after ugly loss to LSU
