UNM football schedule: Is it the program's most difficult in years? Should Lobos add 13th game?

Feb. 29—On Thursday, the Mountain West unveiled the league's full 2024 football schedule, including dates for New Mexico's seven league games and a home game against Washington State in Bronco Mendenhall's first season as head coach.

Three thoughts on UNM's 2024 schedule:

1. Is this UNM's hardest schedule in years?

It might just be.

The Power 5 designation (referring to the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC) effectively began with the advent of the four-team College Football Playoff in 2014. If you include a 2019 game at Notre Dame — not technically a member of a power conference but a program that grades out at that caliber — UNM has played one P5 opponent every regular season since, excluding the 2020 COVID year. — 2023: 1 (at Texas A&M) — 2022: 1 (at LSU) — 2021: 1 (at Texas A&M) — 2020: 0 (games scheduled at USC and Mississippi State were canceled due to COVID-19) — 2019: 1 (at Notre Dame) — 2018: 1 (at Wisconsin) — 2017: 1 (at Texas A&M) — 2016: 1 (at Rutgers) — 2015: 1 (at Arizona State) — 2014: 1 (vs Arizona State)

This schedule? Different story.

UNM will not only travel to a pair of Power 5 opponents in Arizona (Aug. 31) and Auburn (Sept. 14); they host Washington State as part of the Mountain West's "7+1" scheduling agreement with the Pac-12. Nobody totally knows how to treat the Cougars — even if most are billing them as a quasi-independent, they remain card-carrying members of the Pac-12 after all — but given what they're expected to put on the field this season, I'm inclined to treat them as a P5 level team in an especially wonky spot.

Which would mean the Lobos have a daunting three P5 caliber teams on the docket for the first time in...well, a while. The last time something similar happened? Carrying the Power 5 designation back is a little tricky but in 2011, the Lobos traveled to Arkansas for a 52-3 loss against a team that finished 11-2, hosted Texas Tech (a 59-13 loss) and closed the season with a 45-0 loss to then-No. 9 Boise State in Idaho.

And what about UNM's conference schedule? ESPN's Bill Connelly created a predictive metric called SP+, factoring in recent recruiting, returning production and recent history. UNM's 2024 schedule through the lens of the most recent SP+ ratings: — vs. Montana State (N/A) — at Arizona (19th best team according to SP+ rating) — at Auburn (No. 31) — vs Fresno State (No. 54) — at New Mexico State (No. 100) — vs Air Force (No. 91) — at Utah State (No. 95) — at Colorado State (No. 97) — vs Wyoming (No. 80) — at San Diego State (No. 107) — vs Washington State (No. 52) — at Hawaii (No. 120)

Last season, taking out Texas A&M and Tennessee Tech, UNM's opponents had an average SP+ rank of 105.1. This season, it's 82.6 without Arizona, Auburn and Washington State. With those three in the mix, the Lobos' opponents average a rank of 76.9.

All while UNM's preseason SP+ rank is 131st out of 134 teams, with only Akron, Kent State and UL-Monroe behind them.

Then there's how it plays out on a week-to-week basis: Going to Arizona, taking a bye and traveling to Auburn before coming home for a game against Fresno State looks like a grind for UNM, especially if you watched Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene sling it during last year's New Mexico Bowl. Back-to-back road games against Colorado State and Utah State figures to be a chore given who both teams return.

Wyoming and San Diego State remain question marks with new head coaches and yet, it's hard to see either finishing at the bottom of the standings. And closing the season at Hawaii in what's shaping up to be a make-or-break year for head coach Timmy Chang?

It's not the toughest draw in the Mountain West this year. And UNM most likely won't be competing for a league title this season. But until proven otherwise, it's hard to find more than a couple wins here.

There are levels to FCS scheduling. All due respect to the Golden Eagles but Tennessee Tech finished 4-7 after the Lobos dropped them 56-10 last season. Maine, UNM's 2022 opener, put together a 2-9 record that year. Abilene Christian played the Lobos in 2021 and went 0-11.

Barring something unexpected, Montana State won't be like that. The Bobcats went 8-4 in 2023, finishing No. 8 in the FCS Coaches Poll after a 35-34 overtime loss in the playoffs to powerhouse North Dakota State. In other words, this is a program that probably would've had their way with Tennessee Tech in the same way UNM did.

In 2016, Bronco Mendenhall's first year at Virginia, the Cavaliers were waxed 37-20 by FCS Richmond in their home opener. None of that is to say UNM will be outmatched come Aug. 24 — there's an argument Virginia was in a worse spot then than what the Lobos are in right now — but as far as FCS home openers go, this could be more dicey than normal.

2. Should UNM add a 13th game?

Two trains of thoughts here:

Yes. One of the purposes of the Hawaii Rule is to make sure that teams get a chance to recuperate some of the costs of a trip to Hawaii by playing a 13th game. Whether it's a road game against a Group of 5 program or hosting an FCS opponent, that probably won't come close to covering all of it. But it probably won't hurt. Get a game that works, take the two byes (with one that doesn't necessarily have to be structured around the Hawaii game) and run. And make it a home game to balance against the seven road games.

Maybe not? This is Year 1 of the Mendenhall era. It hasn't been a complete roster flip, but there's a pretty good chance UNM won't be as deep as they'd like across the board — especially on the offensive line. The additional bye week afforded to teams playing at Hawaii is overwhelmingly used the week after they play because it's that big of a trip, that big of an adjustment. If UNM doesn't have to worry about that because Hawaii's the last game of the regular season, does it make more sense for a program starting anew to take the three byes — three weeks to rest and recover — during what might be a tough season?

3. If it's going to be a grind, at least this schedule is a fun one

If you were one of the small handful of fans that stuck around for two snowy, gusty, plain miserable overtime periods in UNM's 44-41 loss to Utah State last November, you deserve a seat on a plane to Hawaii and a ticket voucher for this season's finale. Because even if UNM doesn't win a whole lot of games this season, a Thanksgiving weekend trip to the islands is something a lot of people — with the resources to make said trip, of course — are going to look forward to.

And what about a November game at San Diego State? Hosting Washington State and a high-end FCS team? Palatable home games against Air Force and Fresno State? Drivable trips to Las Cruces, Fort Collins, Colo. and Tucson, Ariz.?

There's going to be considerable excitement throughout the spring, summer and at the start of the season — about a new coach, new players and the development of those that stuck around. Five home games (so far) isn't ideal. But this schedule, one of the more fun ones in the Mountain West, ought to help keep some of that excitement around later into the season even if things don't go as planned on the field.