UK football wants to take next step in 2023. 5 games that could make or break the season

LEXINGTON — Coach Mark Stoops, heading into his 11th season with the Wildcats, has raised the standard for Kentucky football during his tenure.

UK has a pair of 10-win seasons in the past five years. And the Wildcats enter the 2023 campaign having reached a bowl seven years running. That's the longest streak in school history and it's tied for the 10th-best active mark — in the SEC it ranks fourth, trailing only heavyweights Georgia (26, which ranks first nationally) and Alabama (19; fourth) as well as annual cross-division rival Mississippi State (13; seventh).

But the Wildcats aren't satisfied.

"It's not just about a 10-win season or just going to a bowl game," senior defensive lineman Octavious Oxendine told The Courier Journal at SEC Media Days last month. "Like yeah, we've been to seven straight (bowls). We've been there, done that and we're going to keep doing that. But we want the bigger picture.

"We want our name on the billboards. We want to stay top-ranked the whole entire season. We want those type of things."

Achieving those goals aren't easy when two-time defending national champion Georgia resides in the same SEC division.

The key question: Given the higher expectations that now surround the program, what can be considered a successful season for Kentucky?

The Bulldogs seemingly inhabit a league of their own at the moment, with 29 wins in their past 30 games. And the Crimson Tide are on the Wildcats' schedule this fall, too.

Winning the Eastern Division for the first time in school history seems may be a longshot, as the SEC prepares to abolish divisions next year when Oklahoma and Texas join the conference. But runner-up honors would leave plenty on the table for the Wildcats — including a shot at a berth in a New Year's Six bowl.

If UK takes care of business as a heavy favorite in its first four games — against Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt — here are five contests the Wildcats need to win to ensure the 2023 season is remembered fondly in years to come:

1. at Louisville (Nov. 25)

Kentucky's final regular-season game could be important on multiple fronts. The Wildcats' SEC slate will be over. But a major-bowl bid could be hanging in the balance with a victory in the Governor's Cup.

Even if it isn't, UK is playing for history.

Kentucky has won the past four meetings against Louisville. Since the rivalry resumed in 1994 after a 70-year drought, the Cardinals have the longest run of success, winning five straight over the Wildcats from 2011 through 2015.

But Kentucky has had the upper hand recently, winning four in a row. Kentucky has dominated all four, too, outscoring U of L 179-57 in that span. The closest result was last season, when UK won 26-13 at Kroger Field — but the Wildcats scored the game's first 13 points and Louisville never trimmed the deficit below six.

The difference with U of L this season, of course, is former coach Scott Satterfield departed for Cincinnati, paving the way for the long-awaited homecoming of program legend Jeff Brohm.

UK can't afford to let Brohm taste victory in his first year, temporarily claiming rivalry bragging rights in what surely would be used on the recruiting trail by the Cardinals ad nauseum next offseason.

2. at South Carolina (Nov. 18)

The buildup around this game has gone up several notches in the past year, starting last August with a Stoops interview on SEC Network.

"You just change a uniform, talk a little game, dance around, put on some stupid sunglasses, and you can change a climate," he told ESPN's Ryan McGee and Marty Smith.

Those comments came shortly after South Carolina football's official Twitter account posted a video of Beamer putting on sunglasses and dancing. While Stoops later said his comments weren't meant as a shot at Beamer, South Carolina's head man didn't take it as such. After the Gamecocks beat the Wildcats last season, Beamer referenced Stoops' comments in the postgame locker room ... once again donning sunglasses and dancing as his players erupted.

Could that game be an inflection point in the rivalry?

Prior to last season, UK had won seven of eight versus South Carolina.

The Gamecocks went on to upset then-top-10 teams Tennessee and Clemson in back-to-back weeks to cap the 2022 regular season. And they've carried that momentum into 2023 — at least in the minds of media members covering the league, who picked USC to finish third in the SEC East this season, one spot ahead of UK.

Of note: Stoops has never lost consecutive games to South Carolina.

3. Tennessee (Oct. 28)

As has so often been the case in this rivalry, UK had no answers for Tennessee last season, as the Volunteers rolled to a 44-6 victory at Neyland Stadium to improve to 8-0. Though Tennessee later fell to Georgia and South Carolina, it capped the 2022 campaign with an emphatic win over Clemson in the Orange Bowl, giving the Volunteers their highest win total in a season (11) since 2001.

Was last season a one-year aberration for Tennessee, powered by one of the country's top quarterbacks in Hendon Hooker? Or was it the first sign the Volunteers are on the cusp of returning to the nation's elite?

Tennessee, which lost Hooker to the NFL in the offseason, is predicted to take runner-up honors in the division this fall.

Despite the Volunteers' lackluster results (by their lofty standards) over the past two decades, they still hold an 8-2 record against the Stoops-led Wildcats.

4. Florida (Sept. 30)

Kentucky has won two straight against Florida for the first time since the late 1970s. The Wildcats haven't topped the Gators three times in a row since taking four straight matchups from 1948 through 1951.

Florida was tabbed the fifth-best team in the Eastern Division at conference media days. If UK has any hope of putting together a memorable season, it can't lose this one. If the Wildcats dispatch the Gators in Week 5 — and avoid an upset in their four winnable games to begin the fall — Kentucky will be 5-0 heading into its matchup at Georgia on Oct. 7.

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5. at Mississippi State (Nov. 4)

This game makes the list because it's uncertain when these two schools will play again. UK and Mississippi State won't meet in 2024. The last time Bulldogs and Wildcats weren't on each other's schedule was 1989, as the two were paired up as permanent cross-division rivals when the league added South Carolina and Arkansas prior to the 1992 season. The home team has held serve in each of the past eight meetings. The Bulldogs host this year, but with a first-year coach at the helm in Zach Arnett, it's likely the Wildcats will enter as a (very) slight favorite.

The winner of this season's game will take the lead in the all-time rivalry, as they enter this fall deadlocked with 25 victories apiece.

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Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky football schedule 2023: 5 key games for Mark Stoops, Wildcats