UIL REALIGNMENT: Predicting district alignments for the Wichita Falls area

UIL realignment is fun.

Not all high school coaches feel that way, but Texas high school football writers love it.

Of course, more than just football is affected by the UIL’s decisions with its biennial realignment released Thursday morning, but this is Texas.

And it’s really hard to project realignment in other sports. Football is split into more divisions, making it easier to put tacks on a map.

This is the third realignment where I put my own projections against those done by Carl Padilla and Matt Stepp — two guys who take a deeper statewide look at the process.

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I stick with only local districts, although by the time I’m done, I have plotted the realignment of several neighboring districts, too.

But I did apply a grade regarding the accuracy of my own projections against Padilla’s and Stepp’s, deducting five points from a 100-point scale for every mistake we’ve made for the last two realignment cycles.

Among six different divisions in 2020, Padilla and I each averaged 90 points, while Stepp came in at 86.7.

In 2022, TRN coverage area teams were spread across seven divisions, and Padilla outpaced Stepp and I by a good margin with an average of 87.9. I was second at 81.4, besting Stepp (80) by a narrow margin.

What does all that mean? Nothing, really. It’s just fun to put a physical grade to our guesses.

We’re in a lot more agreement this year than in the past two cycles, although I did try to branch out and make some wilder projections. I just found myself coming back to what Stepp and Padilla put out with maybe some minor adjustments.

CLASS 5A DIVISION II

Padilla – (2-5A) Legacy, Memorial, Abilene Cooper, Abilene Wylie, Amarillo Palo Duro, Lubbock-Cooper, Plainview

Stepp – (2-5A) Legacy, Memorial, Abilene Cooper, Abilene Wylie, Amarillo Palo Duro, Lubbock-Cooper, Plainview

Hull – (2-5A) Legacy, Memorial, Abilene Cooper, Abilene Wylie, Amarillo Palo Duro, Lubbock-Cooper, Plainview

All three of us have aced the projection for WFISD teams in Class 5A D-II the past two realignments. And I suspect all three of us will nail this one again.

There’s just not much drama here. Four-team districts are not wanted at the 5A level, and with 10 El Paso schools in Class 5A D-II, there’s no danger of the Amarillo, Lubbock and Abilene programs getting pulled toward the border town. That’s expected to happen in Class 5A Division I because there’s only three El Paso schools at that level.

I’m more interested in who Legacy and Memorial end up with on their non-district schedule. There’s still several moving parts on that front and there will be plenty of travel for both schools in that regard.

CLASS 4A DIVISION II

Padilla – (3-4A) Graham, Brock, Glen Rose, Godley, Mineral Wells; (4-4A) Burkburnett, Bridgeport, Gainesville, Krum, Sanger

Stepp – (3-4A) Burkburnett, Graham, Bridgeport, Eagle Mountain, Krum, Sanger

Hull – (3-4A) Burkburnett, Graham, Brock, Bridgeport, Mineral Wells

First, it’s still wild that there are no Class 4A Division I programs in the TRN Sports coverage area.

Second, there are so many options for Burkburnett and Graham to be grouped. But I do think they’ll be kept together in the same district.

Burk is on a bit of an island in this division, but it is closest to Graham at around 75 miles. The Bulldogs won’t be doing WFISD-level traveling for district, but there aren’t any short bus rides this season.

There are so many schools to choose from west and south of Fort Worth, but it makes sense to group Brock with Mineral Wells. Bridgeport makes sense here, too.

If Burk and Graham are split into different districts, Padilla’s plan makes a lot of sense. That is a nasty district for Graham in that scenario, although no one in Class 4A is ready to welcome Brock with open arms.

CLASS 3A DIVISION I

Padilla – (1-3A) Iowa Park, Vernon, Amarillo River Road, Bushland, Dalhart; (4-3A) Bowie, Boyd, Paradise, Peaster, Pilot Point, Ponder, Pottsboro, Whitesboro

Stepp – (3-3A) Bowie, Iowa Park, Vernon, Breckenridge, Comanche, Clyde

Hull – (3-3A) Bowie, Iowa Park, Vernon, Breckenridge, Comanche, Clyde

I have projected Iowa Park and Vernon to go back into the Panhandle for the last two realignments and been wrong. I’m trying to learn from those mistakes, but it is a possibility because Amarillo River Road, Bushland and Dalhart need company.

Shallowater actually makes the most sense to join those three teams in a district. Shallowater likely brings along Brownfield, which grabs Denver City, and suddenly there’s a reasonable six-team district out there for the Amarillo and Lubbock media to tag team.

Bowie isn’t needed with former district mates Peaster, Paradise, Boyd and Co. The Rabbits are needed to help Iowa Park and Vernon fill out a district. Breckenridge and Clyde return because of proximity, and 3A D-I newcomer Comanche is likely joining Clyde wherever it goes.

This is the exact same district as the last two years with Comanche replacing Jim Ned. Although, Jim Ned could be back, too. It depends on if the UIL decides to take the Indians west or not.

CLASS 3A DIVISION II

Padilla – (4-3A) City View, Henrietta, Holliday, Callisburg, Valley View; (6-3A) Jacksboro, Dublin, Eastland, Millsap, Tolar

Stepp – (4-3A) City View, Henrietta, Holliday, Jacksboro, Callisburg, Valley View

Hull – (5-3A) City View, Henrietta, Holliday, Callisburg, S&S Consolidated, Valley View; (6-3A) Jacksboro, Dublin, Eastland, Millsap, Tolar

This is another example of me learning from what I got wrong the last two realignments.

In 2020 and 2022, I had Jacksboro rejoining City View, Henrietta and Holliday since the Tigers are in a district with those schools in every other sport. And I’ve been wrong both years.

The five-team district Padilla predicts Jacksboro joining makes a lot of sense regarding travel with Tolar moving up to the Class 3A D-II ranks.

I don’t think our local teams will be in Region I like Stepp and Padilla predict. There could easily be an extra small district in West Texas they aren’t projecting, keeping these programs in Region II.

My 5-3A projection is the same as what 6-3A has been the past two seasons. Padillia and Stepp have S&S going east with Gunter and other teams around Sherman. S&S is closer to Callisburg, and it takes the Rams from a seven-team district that Stepp and Padilla project, creating two six-team districts instead.

Six and eight are the magic numbers for redistricting when possible, and it’s a small change that reaches one of those numbers.

CLASS 2A DIVISION I

Padilla – (3-2A) Olney, Anson, Abilene TLCA, Hawley, Stamford; (4-2A) Nocona, Alvord, Tioga, Tom Bean, Trenton, Whitewright.

Stepp – (3-2A) Olney, Anson, Abilene TLCA, Colorado City, Hawley, Stamford; (5-2A) Nocona, Alvord, Tioga, Tom Bean, Trenton, Whitewright

Hull – (3-2A) Olney, Anson, Abilene TLCA, Colorado City, Hawley, Stamford; (5-2A) Nocona, Alvord, Tioga, Tom Bean, Trenton, Whitewright

All three of us are practically in agreement here aside from Padilla leaving out Colorado City. I flirted with two other scenarios here before landing on the status quo.

First, I almost included Forsan in 3-2A, but that’s more than a 200-mile drive for Olney. It seemed a bit steep, and Forsan could go north or south on HWY 87 instead.

Second, I tried pushing Olney east with Nocona and District 5-2A. The driving would be less than it was with Forsan in 3-2A.

But I went back to the rule I stated earlier, “Six and eight are the magic numbers for redistricting.” And cutting off 3-2A at Colorado City going west and Olney going east created the best travel scenario for the Cubs with a six-team district.

However, if there were a fifth team to easily group with the foursome of Olney, Nocona, Alvord and Tioga, there would be a potential district there.

CLASS 2A DIVISION II

Padilla – (4-2A) Archer City, Electra, Petrolia, Quanah, Seymour, Windthorst; (6-2A) Munday, Albany, Hamlin, Haskell, Roscoe

Stepp – (5-2A) Archer City, Electra, Petrolia, Quanah, Seymour, Windthorst; (7-2A) Munday, Albany, Hamlin, Haskell, Roscoe

Hull – (5-2A) Munday, Albany, Hamlin, Haskell, Roscoe; (6-2A) Archer City, Electra, Petrolia, Quanah, Seymour, Windthorst

Quanah was the team separated from the rest of our local schools in this division last realignment, joining schools in the Panhandle. But there are plenty of 2A D-II programs in that part of the state this time around.

But popping Munday out of the district makes sense. Those Big Country schools need a fifth program, and Munday has always doubled as being in the TRN and Abilene Reporter News coverage areas.

That makes a very tidy six-team district for the remainder. The only disagreement I have with Padilla and Stepp are the district numbers but call that window dressing.

This article originally appeared on Wichita Falls Times Record News: Where will Wichita Falls area programs land for UIL realignment?