MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC Fight Night 191 .

UFC Fight Night 191 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.

Derek Brunson (22-7 MMA, 13-5 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 6'1" Age: 37 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77"

• Last fight: Decision win over Kevin Holland (March 20, 2021)

• Camp: Sanford MMA (Florida)

• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info: + Regional MMA titles + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt + 3x Division 2 All-American wrestler + 13 KO victories + 3 submission wins + 14 first-round finishes + KO power + Improved pacing and fundamentals + Dangerous left kicks and crosses + Strong pressure against the fence ^ Strikes well off of the breaks + Excellent wrestling ability ^ 94 percent takedown defense + Well-rounded takedown ability + Underrated grappling ^ Transitions and strikes well from topside +/- 4-2 against UFC-level southpaws

Darren Till (18-3-1 MMA, 6-3-1 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 6'0" Age: 28 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 74.5"

• Last fight: Decision loss to Robert Whittaker (July 25, 2020)

• Camp: Team Kaobon (England)

• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info: + K-1 European title + Luta Livre purple belt + Thai boxing experience + 10 KO victories + 2 submission wins + 5 first-round finishes + KO power + Good feints and footwork ^ Manages distance well + Accurate left hand ^ Coming forward or off the counter + Hard Thai kicks + Strong inside the clinch ^ Dangerous elbows and knees + Underrated wrestling ability + Serviceable grappling skills +/- 2-0 against UFC-level southpaws

Point of interest: Muay Thai maelstrom

The main event in Las Vegas features a fun meeting of middleweights whose southpaw sensibilities swing toward the muay Thai spectrum of striking. Embodying his own version of the art of eight limbs, [autotag]Darren Till[/autotag] mixes in a unique brand of southpaw swagger that is reined in by head coach Colin Heron. Despite the bravado that the Englishman exudes, Till smartly works behind subtle feints and solid footwork while creating angles that allow him to capitalize on his opponent’s reactions. Slightly akin to another famous European southpaw, Till packs a powerful left cross that he creates openings for off of pressure. The 28-year-old also throws left Thai kicks that tend to flow off of his left-handed threats, but he could get more than he bargains for should he throw them nakedly (without setup) against his current counterpart. That said, I do suspect we may continue to see more weapons and tactics brought to the table by Till. Admittedly fighting through injuries during the main stretch of his UFC tenure, Till seemed to limit himself to just a few choice weapons. In his defense, Till has tried to open up in more recent efforts, whether it be by showing moves like oblique kicks or the occasional shift to orthodox in order to launch power kicks from the other side. Though both of those will serve him well in theory, I will still be curious to see how Till adapts in both the clinching and countering department. Enter [autotag]Derek Brunson[/autotag]. From his time spent with Jackson Wink MMA to his specialty training with muay Thai legend Manu Ntoh, Brunson has become a lot more than just an All-American wrestler who can throw his hands. Whether Brunson is stalking opponents down with marching variations or his shuffle-steps into space, the 11-year pro will put himself in prime position to land shots from the power side of his southpaw stance. Having a knack for placing powerful kicks, Brunson also has improved his hands over the past few years, being particularly dangerous when punching his way in or out of the pocket. However, despite Brunson’s previous improvements, his brawling instincts have proven to sometimes get the better of him, either costing him emphatic counters in defeat or lackluster affairs that have resulted in close decision losses. Since suffering his last defeat at the hands of now-champion Israel Adesanya, Brunson finally has gotten himself back under the care of a big camp, hooking up with Henri Hooft and company at Sanford MMA. In the subsequent time, we have seen Brunson bring a much more measured and balanced approach to his pressure en route to his recent victories, displaying the ability to fight at a decent pace for three or more rounds. Though I’m sure that experience likely will serve Brunson well on paper, I suspect that he’ll need to successfully layer his threats with offensive wrestling if he means to properly get his game going.

Point of interest: Wrestler's wrath

Considering the on-paper grappling and experience edge, I will be curious to see if Brunson looks to test his English counterpart early with takedown threats. Despite having a lower takedown percentage than one might expect, Brunson does a deceptively good job of using his initial shot to force his opponents to the fence, chaining off his attacks from there. Whether he is hitting reactionary double-legs or snatching up singles, the former All-American wrestler wields a serviceable and diverse takedown game that could pay serious dividends from a stylistic standpoint. However, when you consider that a large portion of Brunson's takedowns are completed from chaining to or from the body lock, then the American might be in for a surprise when he ties up with Till. As we saw in Till’s fight with Kelvin Gastelum, the English fighter was able to smartly utilize the clinch to shut down striking and ensure that the grappling was happening on his terms. Likely a credit to his time training muay Thai, Till displays strong balance and posture in close quarters as he typically looks the land elbows off of the break. Although Till has shown solid (and I dare say underrated) takedown defense during his time in the octagon, he will still need to mind the elbows and knees coming back at him, as Brunson is certainly not beyond utilizing similar weapons. But if Brunson is able to get this fight to the floor, then Till's urgency will need to be on point in regards to his counter-grappling game. Coming from a Luta Livre background (a grappling style more synonymous with catch wrestling than Brazilian jiu-jitsu), Till demonstrates excellent positional awareness and disciplined hand-fighting, a technique that helps him defend takedowns, as well as allows him to unleash unforgiving elbows when topside. From the bottom, Till generally displays decent craft and composure when put on his back, and will usually not stick around too long to see how things play out (outside of his fight with Tyron Woodley, of course). Instead, Till will typically elect to turtle out to his base and work to stand from there. The potential problem, however, is that if Till goes that route in scrambling scenarios, he does risk giving his back in transit – something that his opponent is not shy about abusing. Brunson may not have a “game over” type of ground game, but he can transition well with damaging strikes from topside and plays positions when he needs to. Brunson has also earned his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt since we've seen him last, so don't be surprised if he tries to strategically show that off this Saturday.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Till -188 and Brunson +152 as of this writing. England's propensity to back their fighters at the betting window aside, I'm not necessarily surprised to see Till installed as the odds-on favorite heading into fight night. Not only is the English fighter incredibly talented and prone to improvement at his age, but Till also carries a lot of the tools that have traditionally troubled Brunson, whether it be counter-clinching tactics or straight shots down the centerline. Till also seems to open up a bit more when posed with a fellow southpaw threat, particularly when it comes to targeting the legs. Add in the fact that stamina (in both victory and defeat) doesn't seem to be an issue for Till, and none of us should be shocked if the 28-year-old is able to score a late stoppage should he fail to find a finish in the first. Even with Brunson's improved pacing, he still shows to slow by the middle of round three – even when he is able to get his wrestling going. Nevertheless, I ultimately have a hard time ignoring the x-factors of this card being shifted from England to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Not only will fighters like Till have added obstacles to overcome in regards to the stresses of their travel situations and weight cuts, but the fighting environment also changes given the limited real estate in the Apex's smaller octagon. So, once again, I find myself leaning toward the better wrestler in the small cage. Not only does Brunson do his best striking and grappling along the fence, but he is also preparing with a camp in Sanford MMA that traditionally does well when it comes to both preparing and beating southpaw fighters (likely due to their wide range of lefty looks in the gym). Though I could see this fight going long and getting sketchy in the process, I'll officially side with Brunson to successfully cook his catch by round three en route to reminding the masses as to who deserves the contender talk.

Prediction: Brunson inside the distance

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