UFC 294: Paulo Costa vs. Khamzat Chimaev is still on ... for now

The co-main event spot at UFC 294 on Oct. 21 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, opposite of Khamzat Chimaev remains Paulo Costa’s, for now. And depending upon the health of his elbow, it’s going to stay that way.

There has already been plenty of upheaval on the card, with former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira’s injury forcing him to drop out of the main event, a rematch for the title against Islam Makhachev. The UFC put featherweight champion Alex Volkanovski into that spot in a rematch of their great bout at UFC 284.

Now, because of bursitis in Costa’s left elbow, the co-main event is in question, if not in jeopardy. Costa is in Abu Dhabi now and has been for roughly 50 days, but he had his elbow drained in Brazil prior to leaving. Costa kept the UFC informed of the situation.

But he recently sent the UFC pictures of his elbow, which he subsequently posted online, and it caused concern that his wound had become infected. The biggest concern is if he has developed a staph infection. He’s been training and doing cardio, but hasn’t been using his right hand to punch. But a training environment is ripe for a staph infection, particularly if the area where the elbow was drained breaks open, which is not uncommon.

Asked Tuesday at the Contender Series post-fight news conference if Chimaev-Costa could be off, UFC CEO Dana White said, “Yeah, it’s possible.”

The UFC hasn’t offered the bout to anyone at this stage because Costa is still in the fight. But that could switch quickly if medical tests reveal he has a staph infection.

UFC Hall of Famer Daniel Cormier, an ESPN MMA analyst, released a video via Instagram on Wednesday in which he seemed to indicate he knew who the UFC was seeking as a potential replacement for Costa if Costa is indeed forced out.

That prompted speculation that the replacement could be one of two former champions: ex-welterweight champion Kamaru Usman or ex-middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.

There is almost no chance the UFC will even approach Adesanya, who lost his belt via five-round decision in one of his poorest performances to Sean Strickland on Sept. 10 in the main event of UFC 293.

Adesanya has been the company’s most active champion and it wants him to rest. So while nothing is impossible, the odds of Adesanya getting the gig are about as long as yours of winning Wednesday's lottery.

The speculation about Usman increased because his friend and teammate, Gilbert Burns, posted a video of him sparring and intimated he was preparing for a Chimaev fight.

The UFC would, indeed, be interested in Usman if Costa falls out, but he’s not the only one. Others on the list would be ex-champion Robert Whittaker, Jared Cannonier and Dricus du Plessis, who stopped Whittaker in the second on July 8 at UFC 290.

Usman has a win over Strickland at welterweight, but the UFC was reluctant to have him move up to 185 pounds to fight at middleweight while Adesanya was still champion. Usman and Adesanya were close friends, and the UFC didn’t want Usman to beat a potential title challenger for Adesanya and then refuse to fight him.

With Strickland now the middleweight champion, Usman wouldn’t have that issue and so he could be interested in the Chimaev fight if Costa can’t make it. A win over Chimaev could give him the impetus he needs to get a shot at the middleweight crown.

Costa's health is going to dictate how the dominos fall. The UFC braintrust will spend Wednesday trying simultaneously to get updates on Costa's health as well as gauging the levels of interest to replace him from the likes of Usman, Whittaker, du Plessis and Cannonier if Costa's health forces him off the card.

It's a fluid situation which could change daily as Costa's arm heals.