UFC 287 betting, odds: So many factors favor Israel Adesanya, but it's difficult to ignore history
It isn't going out on much of a limb to say that Israel Adesanya is a more skilled MMA fighter than UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira. And nor is it a stretch to say that Adesanya knows how to defeat Pereira.
The problem for Adesanya's perspective is that he's 0-3 against Pereira, having been knocked out in the last two. The most recent finish came on Nov. 12 in New York when Pereira, trailing three rounds to one on all three scorecards, rallied to knock Adesanya out in the fifth round at UFC 281 to win the middleweight title. Pereira also was 2-0 against Adesanya in kickboxing, winning the second of the two bouts by third-round KO.
Adesanya is a -140 favorite at BetMGM on Saturday for the rematch in the main event of UFC 287 in Miami, Florida. That number reflects the notion that he's the more skilled fighter.
The pressure on Adesanya, though, is enormous. If he loses to Pereira, it's likely his last shot at the championship he dominated for years. It's hard to see the UFC giving Adesanya another crack at Pereira given he'd be 0-2 in the UFC and 0-4 overall with a loss. In that event, he'd have to wait for Pereira to lose the belt or move up a weight class to get back into the championship mix.
He also goes into the fight knowing Pereira has the ability to finish him at any point. In this, the most mental of sports, that's not insignificant.
If you bet Adesanya, you're going to have to hold your breath the entire fight. The fight will be like him doing a high wire act, and having to do flips to get from one side to the other. It can be done, but one mistake and it ends in disaster.
Adesanya's best bet is probably to fight similarly to how he has, but to try to increase the number of leg kicks he throws as well to perhaps change levels periodically. If he can wear down Pereira's lead leg and take some of his power by attacking it repeatedly with kicks, that would be in his favor.
Pereira, though, knows all of this better than anyone else. And going into the fight, Pereira has a clear mental advantage.
As much as I make the case in my head for Adesanya to win, I also can't ignore history. And 0-3 says something loudly to me.
As a result, I'm going to play the fight under 4.5 rounds and lay the -130. That way, if it goes less, I have a win no matter which fighter wins. But I'll also play Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ at +200. Everything I see tells me this is an Adesanya win, just like I felt going into UFC 281. It's tough to ignore history, so we're going to respect it and play under 4.5 and Pereira by KO.
Other bets for UFC 287
• Gilbert Burns is a -450 favorite in the co-main event to defeat Jorge Masvidal, who is +360. I like Burns to win this, but I think that's much too high of a number to lay. The intangibles favor Masvidal, and with Burns saying he wants to stand and strike with him, that seems to play into Masvidal's hands.
If the fight goes to the ground, it's clearly in favor of Burns. Masvidal has the better stand-up but Burns hits very hard. So he has a better chance to win a striking contest than Masvidal does a grappling match.
I just don't like the numbers, but I do think this fight goes three full rounds. And given that the over-under is 2.5 and over 2.5 rounds is +110, that's where I'll go. Under 2.5 rounds is -140, but I don't see a finish here.
• I'll take the +140 and bet Michelle Waterson-Gomez to defeat Luana Pinheiro, who is -165.
• I will lay the -180 and take Joe Pyfer to defeat Gerald Meerschaert. Meerschaert is +155.
