UFC 287 betting, odds: Is the wrong fighter favored in Alex Pereira-Israel Adesanya 2?
Israel Adesanya is one of the most decorated middleweight fighters in UFC history. He has amassed a stellar 23-1 record in the division, defended the UFC middleweight belt five consecutive times, and holds the record for most knockdowns in a UFC title fight.
It’s the one loss that haunts him. At UFC 281, Adesanya was well on his way to his sixth straight title defense. This one was going to be special for Adesanya, as Alex Pereira was viewed as the last mountain for the middleweight champ to climb. It was personal, a final act of revenge for being knocked out by Pereira in kickboxing prior to their MMA careers. “The Last Stylebender” had him in his world now, an arena where he has one of the best to ever do it.
In the fifth and final round, Adesanya’s victory seemed inevitable, as many of us mentally moved on to the possibilities of his next challenge. Then, in a few seconds, chaos ensued before it all went black for the former champ. Pereira backed him against the cage and unmercifully unloaded on Adesanya with a barrage of combinations, forcing referee Marc Goddard to step in and declare the fight over. The electric, soldout crowd at Madison Square Garden went absolutely berzerk as mayhem ensued. “Poatan” Pereira knocked out Adesanya for a second time, capturing the middleweight crown.
The rematch is set for Saturday night at UFC 287. This is the biggest fight of Adesanya’s 11-year MMA career and will leave a lasting impression on his legacy. The former champion is currently a -135 favorite at BetMGM.
Does the value lie with Adesanya, who closed as a -225 favorite in the last fight, or is the new champion being short-changed after finishing the former champ?
Alex Pereira (+110) vs. Israel Adesanya (-135)
A dominant champion, whose title run propelled him into the GOAT conversion of the division, gets shockingly knocked out in the fifth round and is still the betting favorite in the rematch. Sound familiar? I’m not saying that Kamaru Usman and Adesanya are at the same point in their careers, but the data shows history hasn’t been kind to former champions in rematches. I mistakenly rolled my eyes at the warnings of having to factor in a new champion’s confidence boost before getting down on Usman against Leon Edwards in their next fight. It didn’t matter that Usman dominated for 4.5 rounds in the previous fight, there is a stark difference between being champion and challenger. That’s not to say Adesanya can’t win, but after getting starched again by Pereira, confidence will not be on his side.
It seems simple enough for Adesanya. Own the center of the Octagon, keep your back off the cage, aggressively attack and circle out of danger. Rinse and repeat for five rounds. However, it doesn’t matter if it’s Usman-Edwards, Stipe Miocic-Daniel Cormier, or Shogun Rua-Lyoto Machida, rematches rarely play out like the first bout. Based on his pre-fight comments, Adesanya wants to ensure this one won’t either. He has hinted at the possibility of a more grappling-based strategy Saturday night. While going after Pereira where he is weakest makes sense, Adesanya will also be attacking with a discipline he is less familiar with, which may open up some defensive holes and could be a grave mistake. Distance should be the former champ’s best friend. It wasn't until he allowed Pereira to back him up into the cage and get inside that he paid the ultimate price.
That’s why my money is on Pereira retaining his title. There is certainly a path for Adesanya to win, but his execution has to be perfect for the full five rounds, and that’s a difficult way to fight. I think the mental pendulum has swung massively in Pereira’s favor, knowing he has the ability to hunt Adesanya down and end the fight. Likewise, having to fight knowing that your first mistake will most likely be your last is unfamiliar territory for a fighter as decorated as Adesanya. That has to impact his speed, confidence and some of the elite traits that made him one of the greatest champions in the promotion.
I’m betting we don’t see Adesanya, the champion, in this fight. Entering the Octagon at UFC 287 will be a version of "The Last Stylebender" that we haven't seen yet. Maybe it’s his best version, but I believe the betting upside is greater with Pereira. While getting the champion at +110 looks like a bargain, we know another knockout is the most probable outcome for a Pereira win. At 2 to 1, Pereira by knockout holds the best value for my money. The bet: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO +200
