UFC 280 betting: Does Sean O'Malley have what it takes to defeat Petr Yan?
That Sean O'Malley was chosen to fight Petr Yan on the main card of UFC 280 Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates came as somewhat of a surprise to many. O'Malley was ranked 12th at bantamweight and Yan first, and the UFC rarely has put matches together involving fighters separated by so much in the rankings.
But whenever the UFC's matchmaking team of Dana White, Hunter Campbell, Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard make a match that seems questionable to the public, it usually turns out they're right. And with O'Malley being a huge potential star — he already is one of the UFC's most popular fighters — they clearly wouldn't want to put him into a fight he's not ready for and see him get beaten badly.
So they clearly think it will be a competitive fight.
O'Malley is an elite striker with excellent quickness and lateral movement. He knows how to set up his strikes and is a very accurate puncher. If he has a weakness, it's that he has't proven he can deal with an elite wrestler who would look to take him down.
At this stage of his development, he'd be questionable against champion Aljamain Sterling and former champion T.J. Dillashaw, who meet in Saturday's co-main event. But if the brass were ever to give O'Malley a big leap, Yan is the perfect opponent. Yan is an excellent striker, as well, though his biggest edge is having faced better opposition than O'Malley. Yan has fought Sterling twice as well as Jose Aldo, Urijah Faber and Cory Sandhagen.
O'Malley, though, has a sharp fighting mind and a slight advantage in quickness. O'Malley must be ready to go from the start. Yan is a notoriously slow starter, but when he picks up the pace, he's a handful. O'Malley can't afford to give away the first round trying to get information on Yan because it's a good bet that Yan will improve as the fight goes on.
If O'Malley starts fast and assertive, he could pick up the early rounds and then be able to use his reach and quickness to try to pick apart Yan once Yan turns it up.
Yan is -275 and O'Malley is +220 at BetMGM. That's a good number for O'Malley, and so I'll bet him to win.
If you want to bet the over-under, going the distance is -175. But if you bet O'Malley to win by decision, you'll get him at +500. Since I like O'Malley to win, that's the other play I'll make. I'll take O'Malley by decision at +500. So on this fight, I'd risk $200, $100 on each play, and would come out with a profit of $720 if O'Malley wins by decision.
Makhachev favored over Oliveira
Charles Oliveira is on an incredible run, having won 11 in a row and defeating the likes of Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson in that span. He also may have faced the most difficult opposition of any active UFC fighter. He's had losses to Max Holloway, Anthony Pettis, Frankie Edgar, Cub Swanson and Donald Cerrone and has also defeated Kevin Lee, Clay Guida, Darren Elkins, Jeremy Stephens, Jared Gordon and Jim Miller.
Despite that, he's a big underdog in the main event for the vacant lightweight title to Islam Makhachev. Makhavchev is a -175 favorite, largely on the basis of his elite wrestling, while Oliveira is +145.
One scenario for the fight is that Makhachev takes him down early, controls him and limits Oliveira's offense and eventually finishes him. Oliveira can be hurt, but he's durable and can come back from the brink as he has shown repeatedly, most recently against Chandler and Poirier.
I like Oliveira's versatility and ability to threaten in so many positions, so I'll go with Oliveira to win at +145.
Sterling and Dillashaw could be a long one
The Sterling-Dillashaw fight has decision written all over it. Sterling has finished five of 16 fights in the UFC, a 31.3 percent finishing rate. Dillashaw has finished eight of 17 in the UFC, a significantly better 47.1 percent finish rate.
Sterling, though, has only been finished once and has an uncanny ability to avoid trouble. Dillashaw has been finished twice, though his KO loss to John Dodson in the Ultimate Fighter Finale in 2011 is so long ago to be insignificant.
The fight screams five rounds and so that's the play here. It's -185 at BetMGM to go the distance and so that's what I'll play.
Other bets for UFC 280
Sean Brady at -145 to win over Belal Muhammad.
Two units on Beneil Dariush at +160 to win over Mateusz Gamrot.
Karol Rosa at -350 to win over Lina Lansberg.
Muhammad Mokaev at even money to win by submission over Malcom Gordon.
