UFC 274: Quick picks and prognostications
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 274.
UFC 274 takes place Saturday at Footprint Center in Phoenix. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-3
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2022: 41-17
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s quick picks and prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Matchup: Donald Cerrone(-200) vs. Joe Lauzon (+150)
Summary: The pay-per-view portion of the card kicks off with a flashback from the Joe Silva era as [autotag]Donald Cerrone[/autotag] and [autotag]Joe Lauzon[/autotag] do battle at 155 pounds.
Considering that these two are longtime fan favorites, I’d argue that the stylistic dynamic of this matchup is fairly easy to call: Either Lauzon gets the jump on a slow-starting Cerrone in the first round, or “Cowboy” weathers the early storms en route forcing a stoppage down the stretch.
Even though I’d love to see Lauzon get another win, I suspect that the environment of a live crowd – in conjunction with some needed time off – will be just what the doctor ordered in regards to Cerrone finding success this Saturday. I’ll officially side with Cerrone to force a stoppage via strikes early into the third round.
Matchup: Ovince St. Preux (-280) vs. Mauricio Rua (+210)
Summary: In a fight that may end up feeling like a trip to the glue factory, [autotag]Ovince St. Preux[/autotag] will do battle with [autotag]Mauricio Rua[/autotag] for a second time.
With this being yet another rematch from the year 2014, I don’t blame anyone for not feeling confident in forecasting this outcome. That said, despite being a big “Shogun” fan since his days in Pride Fighting Championships, I’ll reluctantly side with St. Preux due to the fact that he still has his knees and is technically under the age of 40.
The official pick is St. Preux via a depressing decision.
Matchup: Michael Chandler (-400) vs. Tony Ferguson (+280)
Summary: Serving as one of UFC 274’s feature attractions is another violent offering at lightweight between [autotag]Michael Chandler[/autotag] and [autotag]Tony Ferguson[/autotag].
Despite being one of Ferguson’s most vocal supporters in the MMA media space (as well as fully sympathizing with his professional frustrations and pleas for things like fighter insurance), I can’t ignore the decline I’ve seen from the subsequent wars he put on for our entertainment.
Chandler may be on a similar path in that regard, but his speed, athleticism and underrated grappling prowess should be enough to get him a win here. My heart is with Ferguson to return to his presenting and punctuating ways, but the official pick is for Chandler to somewhat surprisingly wrestle his way to a unanimous decision.
Matchup: Rose Namajunas (-230) vs. Carla Esparza (+175)
Summary: As stated in my in-depth breakdown, the co-main event for UFC 274 features a rematch between [autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] and [autotag]Carla Esparza[/autotag] that’s more intriguing than meets the eye.
Even though it’s easy to argue that Namajunas is the more improved fighter since their first meeting, I’m curious to see if consistent wrestling is still the Lithuanian-American’s stylistic kryptonite.
Sure, the stats that range from title retentions to rematches are certainly in Namajunas’ favor, but I still find myself slightly siding with the fighter who has more of a proven process – as Esparza has traditionally only needed roughly two to three takedowns to establish her win conditions.
It’s not a confident pick given that I could see Namajunas sparking out a dipping Esparza with a switch kick or flying knee up the center, but I suspect that we end up with a competitive 25-minute contest that leaves us arguing between one fighter’s effectiveness on the floor versus the other’s moments on the feet.
Matchup: Charles Oliveira (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+117)
Summary: Despite already putting out an in-depth breakdown on this matchup earlier this week, the stakes between [autotag]Charles Oliveira[/autotag] and [autotag]Justin Gaethje[/autotag] have sadly shifted due to a mixup with the official scales.
The bout will continue as scheduled, but it appears that Gaethje will be the only one eligible to walk away with the lightweight title on a win this Saturday.
Although all of this undoubtedly puts “Do Bronx” in a bad spot on multiple levels, I’m still gonna stick to my guns as far as my pick goes. A Gaethje win via knockout shouldn’t surprise anyone, but I’ll side with Oliveira to break down the American with body teeps and knees en route to a second-round submission win.
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