Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don discuss how the trade that sent Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins will affect the Kansas City Chiefs passing attack, specifically the fantasy value of #1 TE Travis Kelce.
ANDY BEHRENS: I did want to mention-- and this is a stat from Sports Info Solutions via Doug Farrar, former Yahoo colleague, who did-- who wrote a bunch of great stuff-- just on, I believe, on Wednesday, shortly after the trade news broke on the Chiefs generally, on where they go from here, on the deal. And the stat was that Patrick Mahomes last year, like by a mile, not even close, had the most drop backs against two-deep coverage. Nobody within like-- I don't know-- 80 snaps of him, something like that.
So that-- that is certainly a reflection of how Tyreek Hill, and only Tyreek Hill, shapes the defense around him. Right? Like you literally can't man him. You-- you can't really play that like single-high safety stuff that the Raiders try, and they give up 300 yards to Hill. Right? Like you just can't do any of that.
I just-- as-- as good as MVS is and as ascendant as he can possibly be, I don't think he's the guy that sort of reshapes the field around him the way that Tyreek did.
DALTON DEL DON: Yeah, fair enough. And does this increase or decrease Travis Kelce's fantasy value in your mind? Personally, it's just about the same. More targets is never a bad thing. But you know, obviously, he's not going to benefit from all that underneath stuff just if it's so wide open.
Personally, I've still left him number one, because I think Mark Andrews is going to be the popular number one fantasy tight end ranked. But it was just a perfect set of events in the second half for him. And I still think, moving forward, Kelce is probably going to be my number one ranked, despite his age. Thoughts?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, I've still got Kelce number one. It's interesting that you say that you think Mark Andrews-- I suppose that would be a separate topic entirely. But interesting that you think Mark Andrews is just-- like maybe, maybe people are just going to run it back and say that that's-- because that's the way it shook out last year-- but obviously, there are a million different reasons why Mark Andrews ended up as the number one tight end.
DALTON DEL DON: His ECR is number two, and Kelce is one. So I'm wrong. May-- I'm wrong. I'm wrong.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, I've got-- I've got Kelce-- I've got Kelce number one. I don't-- I don't think he's necessarily a tier of his own player anymore. Maybe after the Hill deal. You know, he's definitely aging out of his best years. No question about that.
I don't-- I think it's interesting when we talk about like his-- his target share. I'm-- I'm not sure how many more targets you can shoehorn to Travis Kelce. Right?
DALTON DEL DON: Right. Fair.
ANDY BEHRENS: I mean, he's already in line for like 135, 150--
DALTON DEL DON: But all those cheapies at the goal line. I mean, Tyreek Hill would even get a handful of the cheap-- man, he throws about 10 touchdowns that are just basically glorified handoffs. And maybe a couple more of those goes to Kelce. But that is fair. How many more targets can he possibly get? Yes.
ANDY BEHRENS: He also-- it is, I think, safe to say that Tyreek benefited from Kelce. And Kelce certainly benefited from the coverages that are forced on the Chiefs by Tyreek Hill's presence. Right? So Tyreek Hill was the sort of player who makes life easier for everyone else on the field, Kelce included.
Like JuJu is not that guy. MVS isn't that guy. Maybe there-- certainly, Mecole Hardman has not been that guy. He's basically-- the story of his career, in my mind, to this point, is that there's like two or three plays a game where Patrick Mahomes clearly expects Mecole Hardman to be somewhere other than where he is. And until I see those go away, I can't really get fully behind Mecole Hardman.
I also think, you know-- I also think they're gonna draft somebody who's going to be a really, really interesting developmental prospect, and/or somebody that they plug-in right away, who has a pretty significant role. So I don't-- I'm not gonna-- I'm not gonna project some huge increase in targets or opportunities or touchdowns for Kelce. I mean, guy already scored like-- he has 20 touchdowns over the last two seasons. And he's routinely seeing 140 targets. So I just-- it's really hard for me to imagine the ceiling being any higher than that.