Twins’ record-breaking 2019 unlikely to be matched again anytime soon
If Mitch Garver needs a reminder that he was part of major league history, he has the bobble head. Five relative likenesses of Twins players who, in 2019, became the first five major league teammates to hit at least 30 home runs in a season.
“Yeah, I’ve got the bobblehead, I’ve got the pictures,” the veteran catcher/designated hitter said before Seattle and Minnesota played the second of a four-game series at Target Field on Tuesday. “It’s really cool. It seems like a long time ago.”
And not necessarily because it was five years ago, or because Garver has now played for two other teams, and not necessarily because the Mariners’ designated hitter won a World Series last season with the Texas Rangers.
It’s the pitching.
The Atlanta Braves equaled the Twins’ feat last season, with five players combining for 205 home runs while the team tied the Twins’ team MLB mark of 307. But imagining that happening this season, or anytime soon, is difficult, Garver said.
“A lot has changed. A lot has changed,” he said. “ I would say ’22 going into ’23 was when pitching really changed.”
Garver, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano combined for 174 of the Twins’ home runs as they smashed the previous team record of 267 by the 2018 New York Yankees with 307 home runs. In fact, four teams surpassed the Yankees’ record in 2019 as major league teams hit a record 6,776 home runs.
At the time, there was speculation that it was due in part to a juiced ball. But offense is down so far this season, and there haven’t been many conspiracy theories as to why. It’s probably because it’s widely known that major league pitching is having a renaissance.
Baseball’s average OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging) before Tuesday was .695, and while a lot can change certainly, it’s worth noting that since the expansion era began in 1961, baseball has had a combined OPS of less than .700 only 14 times, the last in 1989 (.695). The leagues’ combined 7,656 strikeouts through April rank second only to 2019 (7,748) since 1961.
Pitchers aren’t just throwing harder — the average fastball in 2023 was 94.2 mph compared to 91.9 mph in 2008 — they’re throwing more pitches. Both can be attributed to computer-aided physiological analysis that helps pinpoint how pitchers throw and, consequently, what pitches they might be particularly good at.
“Guys started developing two fastballs, sometimes three if you include a cutter,” Garver said. “And they have multiple breaking balls. Everyone has a changeup now. Pitching has gone through so many waves since I’ve been in the big leagues, it has changed so much that it’s hard to keep up.”
It’s not uncommon for players to throw six pitches now. Some used to make a career out of two, although Twins manager Rocco Baldelli, a career .278 hitter in seven major league seasons, said there were pitchers that threw six pitches when he played (2003-10).
“Well, some guys did,” he said, “but they were throwing 90 (mph).”
Since those five Twins each reached 30 home runs, MLB’s combined homers have been fewer than 6,000 total in the four non-COVID seasons, bottoming out at 5,215 in 2022. Through April, major league teams were on pace to hit 4,878, which would be the lowest home run total since 2008.
It’s only going to get worse, or better if you’re talking to a pitching coach, Badelli said, as batters fight to catch up with the heat and advanced scouting. “We know what guys hit and what they generally don’t hit, and they just don’t get the pitches that they hit anymore,” the manager said.
Garver, who signed a two-year, $24 million contract with Seattle in the offseason, agreed with his former manager.
“It’s going to be really challenging for hitters the next few years.”
