Top 25 teams in ESPN’s Football Power Index ahead of 2023 season
College football is wrapping up its spring practice season and preparing for the summer grind ahead of the upcoming 2023 season. While well over four months remain until the first kickoff of fall, ESPN released its Football Power Index — its season-long ratings and projections system — this week.
The preseason algorithm relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on each school’s respective roster to form a numerical rating. The resulting data was then used to simulate the season 20,000 times, which produced the final results.
Take a look below at the top 25 teams in ESPN’s preseason FPI along with the predictive data that fed into the rankings system.
Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 31.5
PROJ W-L: 11.8-1.0
WIN OUT %: 34.3
6 WINS %: 100.0
WIN DIV %: 75.5
WIN CONF %: 71.2
PLAYOFF %: 82.2
MAKE NC %: 57.2
WIN NC %: 36.7
Read more at Buckeyes Wire
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
RATING: 28.2
PROJ W-L: 11.1-1.6
WIN OUT %: 13.6
6 WINS %: 100.0
WIN DIV %: 74.3
WIN CONF %: 40.9
PLAYOFF %: 62.1
MAKE NC %: 38.0
WIN NC %: 20.4
Read more at Roll Tide Wire
Georgia Bulldogs
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 27.4
PROJ W-L: 11.7-1.2
WIN OUT %: 22.4
6 WINS %: 100.0
WIN DIV %: 89.5
WIN CONF %: 49.3
PLAYOFF %: 63.1
MAKE NC %: 35.9
WIN NC %: 19.1
Read more at UGA Wire
LSU Tigers
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 22.1
PROJ W-L: 9.6-2.6
WIN OUT %: 1.2
6 WINS %: 99.9
WIN DIV %: 20.4
WIN CONF %: 7.1
PLAYOFF %: 23.7
MAKE NC %: 10.3
WIN NC %: 4.1
Read more at LSU Tigers Wire
Texas Longhorns
Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 21.9
PROJ W-L: 10.1-2.6
WIN OUT %: 2.9
6 WINS %: 99.9
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 54.4
PLAYOFF %: 34.2
MAKE NC %: 14.5
WIN NC %: 5.7
Read more at Longhorns Wire
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 21.4
PROJ W-L: 10.0-2.1
WIN OUT %: 4.3
6 WINS %: 100.0
WIN DIV %: 17.6
WIN CONF %: 14.3
PLAYOFF %: 25.9
MAKE NC %: 10.3
WIN NC %: 3.9
Read more at Wolverines Wire
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 19.9
PROJ W-L: 10.3-2.4
WIN OUT %: 4.6
6 WINS %: 99.9
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 50.2
PLAYOFF %: 24.7
MAKE NC %: 8.6
WIN NC %: 2.7
Read more at Trojans Wire
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 19.4
PROJ W-L: 10.3-2.3
WIN OUT %: 6.8
6 WINS %: 99.9
WIN DIV %: 55.2
WIN CONF %: 44.5
PLAYOFF %: 24.2
MAKE NC %: 8.1
WIN NC %: 2.8
Read more at Clemson Wire
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 18.4
PROJ W-L: 9.1-2.9
WIN OUT %: 1.3
6 WINS %: 99.7
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 0.0
PLAYOFF %: 15.8
MAKE NC %: 5.1
WIN NC %: 1.6
Read more at Fighting Irish Wire
Penn State Nittany Lions
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 17.5
PROJ W-L: 9.3-2.7
WIN OUT %: 0.9
6 WINS %: 99.9
WIN DIV %: 6.3
WIN CONF %: 4.6
PLAYOFF %: 10.7
MAKE NC %: 3.5
WIN NC %: 1.0
Read more at Nittany Lions Wire
Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 16.9
PROJ W-L: 9.7-2.8
WIN OUT %: 2.1
6 WINS %: 99.7
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 24.5
PLAYOFF %: 10.7
MAKE NC %: 3.2
WIN NC %: 1.0
Read more at Sooners Wire
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 15.2
PROJ W-L: 8.2-3.9
WIN OUT %: 0.0
6 WINS %: 98.1
WIN DIV %: 5.4
WIN CONF %: 1.2
PLAYOFF %: 2.5
MAKE NC %: 0.7
WIN NC %: 0.2
Read more at Vols Wire
Oregon Ducks (T-13)
Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 15.0
PROJ W-L: 9.1-3.3
WIN OUT %: 0.7
6 WINS %: 99.4
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 16.9
PLAYOFF %: 4.9
MAKE NC %: 1.2
WIN NC %: 0.2
Read more at Ducks Wire
Florida State Seminoles (T-13)
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 15.0
PROJ W-L: 8.7-3.5
WIN OUT %: 0.6
6 WINS %: 98.5
WIN DIV %: 25.2
WIN CONF %: 17.0
PLAYOFF %: 4.4
MAKE NC %: 1.1
WIN NC %: 0.3
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 14.9
PROJ W-L: 8.7-3.7
WIN OUT %: 0.4
6 WINS %: 98.2
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 17.0
PLAYOFF %: 3.9
MAKE NC %: 1.0
WIN NC %: 0.2
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 13.4
PROJ W-L: 7.6-4.4
WIN OUT %: 0.0
6 WINS %: 94.6
WIN DIV %: 2.0
WIN CONF %: 0.4
PLAYOFF %: 0.9
MAKE NC %: 0.2
WIN NC %: 0.0
Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 13.0
PROJ W-L: 8.1-4.1
WIN OUT %: 0.1
6 WINS %: 96.0
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 5.7
PLAYOFF %: 1.2
MAKE NC %: 0.3
WIN NC %: 0.1
Florida Gators (T-18)
Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images
RATING: 12.7
PROJ W-L: 6.8-5.2
WIN OUT %: 0.0
6 WINS %: 82.2
WIN DIV %: 3.0
WIN CONF %: 0.5
PLAYOFF %: 0.2
MAKE NC %: 0.0
WIN NC %: 0.0
Texas A&M Aggies (T-18)
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 12.7
PROJ W-L: 7.5-4.5
WIN OUT %: 0.0
6 WINS %: 93.1
WIN DIV %: 2.3
WIN CONF %: 0.4
PLAYOFF %: 0.4
MAKE NC %: 0.1
WIN NC %: 0.0
Read more at Aggies Wire
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 12.3
PROJ W-L: 8.6-3.8
WIN OUT %: 0.1
6 WINS %: 98.5
WIN DIV %: 47.9
WIN CONF %: 5.9
PLAYOFF %: 1.0
MAKE NC %: 0.2
WIN NC %: 0.1
Read more at Badgers Wire
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 11.8
PROJ W-L: 7.8-4.4
WIN OUT %: 0.1
6 WINS %: 93.9
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 6.4
PLAYOFF %: 0.6
MAKE NC %: 0.2
WIN NC %: 0.0
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 10.8
PROJ W-L: 7.5-4.6
WIN OUT %: 0.1
6 WINS %: 90.8
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 3.8
PLAYOFF %: 0.5
MAKE NC %: 0.1
WIN NC %: 0.0
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 10.7
PROJ W-L: 7.4-4.7
WIN OUT %: 0.0
6 WINS %: 90.0
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 3.2
PLAYOFF %: 0.2
MAKE NC %: 0.0
WIN NC %: 0.0
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 10.5
PROJ W-L: 8.7-3.5
WIN OUT %: 0.4
6 WINS %: 98.6
WIN DIV %: 0.0
WIN CONF %: 7.6
PLAYOFF %: 0.8
MAKE NC %: 0.2
WIN NC %: 0.0
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
RATING: 10.2
PROJ W-L: 8.2-4.2
WIN OUT %: 0.2
6 WINS %: 95.8
WIN DIV %: 38.2
WIN CONF %: 13.9
PLAYOFF %: 0.5
MAKE NC %: 0.0
WIN NC %: 0.0
Read more at Tar Heels Wire
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