Three-Point Stance: Giant seasons in store for Eli, Shepard?
Benefiting from an exploitable Giants defense, Eli Manning and Odell Beckham continued to stake their claim as one of the league’s nastiest QB/WR combinations. Adding help sharp-cutting rookies Sterling Shepard and Paul Perkins to the mix, the Giants sport several draftable fantasy assets. In this edition of the ‘Stance,’ Brad Evans and Liz Loza take a bite out of the Big Apple and quantify New York’s top options.
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With brother Peyton presumably tanning his enormous forehead somewhere along the Gulf of Mexico, younger Eli is the lone Manning still standing. Off his second straight No. 10 finish among QBs, OVER or UNDER final fantasy rank at the position this fall 10.5? (OVER means outside the top-10. UNDER, the opposite).
Liz – UNDER. Flourishing in Ben McAdoo’s up-tempo offense and benefiting from Odell Beckham’s explosive talent, Manning closed out 2015 with career numbers, passing for over 4,400 yards and scoring 35 TDs. The addition of dynamic rookie WR Sterling Shepard, and a suspect ground-game should help Manning match those numbers this coming year.
Given the money GM Jerry Reese spent beefing up the defense, Manning may pass less in 2016, but whether a bunch of big names and a rookie pay off remains to be seen. Having reached what appears to be his ceiling and delivering similar stats over the past two seasons, there’s no way Eli finishes outside of the top-ten fantasy QBs. I estimate a top 7-9 finish, with the Henson-esque signal caller passing for 4,350 yards and 33 scores.
Brad – OVER. No question Eli is a dependable ironman who has the weapons to crank out consistent QB1 lines. However, I refuse to believe he’ll meet or exceed last year’s career high in touchdowns and second-best effort in yardage, especially if the Giants’ upgrades on defense take hold. I’m not disparaging the guy, but I foresee a slight decline (Think 4,200 pass yards and 30-32 TDs), which will ultimately land him at QB12 this year.
The New York media attached many superlatives to rookie wide receiver Sterling Shepard throughout May and June. With the OU product expected to start opposite Beckham this season, is the following statement BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE: In Year 1, Shepard sails past 800 receiving yards and finishes as a top-30 fantasy WR.
Liz – BELIEVE. Shepard is one of the most exciting receivers in this year’s class. He’s also a better football player than Reuben Randle, who amassed 797 yards and scored 8 TDs in 2015. Maybe Victor Cruz returns this fall and, perhaps, that affects the rookie’s targets, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Shepard’s go-go-gadget-like vertical ability in tandem with his physicality will keep Manning throwing the ball his way. Fantasy owners aiming for upside in the double-digit rounds of their draft(s) will relish rostering the Sooner.
Brad – BELIEVE. 57-797-8, WR32. That’s what Reuben Randle, who is one step below dreadful, tallied last year. If he can crack the WR top-36, Shepard, a significantly more talented receiver, is more than capable of tucking inside the top-30.
Equipped with shifty feet, strong routes and separation skills, the former Sooner is about to boom. Among rookie WRs, I suspect he’ll lead the pack. The coverages he’ll often see will be advantageous to say the least. Mark me down for 69 receptions, 985 yards and six touchdowns.
One recent Giants beat writer predicted Rashad Jennings will net around 15-18 carries per game to start the season. With that in mind and knowing he has competition just over his shoulder is the thirty-something RB OVERVALUED, UNDERVALUED or PROPERLY VALUED at his 108.5 ADP (RB40)?
Liz– UNDERVALUED. “You gotta fade the Giants’ backfield. It’s jut too crowded. Plus, Jennings is old and brittle” I love when a narrative takes off and creates awesome value for fearless owners.
Averaging just over 12 touches per contest in 2015, Jennings finished the year as the nineteenth best back in fantasy. Assuming a heavier workload (15 carries per game) and even factoring in a less efficient YPC (4.1), he could see upwards of 950 rushing yards over a 16-game season. Will he get hurt at some point? Probably, but that’s when working a waiver wire and/or flexing FAAB comes into play. The best – and most complete – of the GMen’s RBs, Jennings is top-30 player at the position for fantasy purposes.
Brad – UNDERVALUED. Jennings was worked like a Belgian horse over the Giants final three games last season totaling 63 touches (21 per game). Though it’s unlikely that volume will carry over into 2016, he should, at a minimum, head up New York’s RBBC. Replace “carries” with “touches” in the 15-18 declaration above and it’s entirely conceivable.
Perkins is an appealing second-half riser, but over the first several weeks, Jennings should deliver borderline RB2 results, especially if the offensive line, which returns all five starters, advances. Keep in mind the Giants boast the second-easiest strength of schedule for fantasy RBs and several of Jennings’ statistical measurements (4.4 YPC, 2.8 YAC, 10.2 YPR) were commendable.
Bull rush Brad @YahooNoise and Liz @LizLoza_FF on Twitter.
