The struggling Buffalo Bills are wasting an MVP-level season from Josh Allen
Sometimes it doesn’t matter what you do, it’s just not in the cards for you. There might not be anyone in the NFL who has felt that the way Bills quarterback Josh Allen has this season. Allen’s experience in 2023 was encapsulated in the Bills’ 37-34 overtime loss to the Eagles on Sunday afternoon, in which, despite Allen's doing his best impersonation of Atlas and carrying the Bills on his shoulders, they fell short and dropped to 6-6 on the season — making a run toward the playoffs that much more difficult.
Despite the loss, people should recognize that Allen played at an MVP level from start to finish Sunday, and the team's coming up short shouldn’t diminish what he accomplished.
Allen was essentially one play away from icing the game against a superior opponent. But on the Bills' first and only drive of overtime, he and wide receiver Gabe Davis had a miscommunication over what coverage the Eagles were showing. Davis went outside, while Allen was expecting him to turn his route inside toward a wide-open middle of the field. The pass fell incomplete, and then Eagles QB Jalen Hurts marched right down the field to win the game and ignite the flame on his own MVP campaign through the end of the season.
The tough part for Allen and the Bills is that this is largely who he has been all season, even with some of the mind-numbing interceptions. According to RBSDM.com, Allen ranks third in expected points added per play this season (0.227) and second in success rate (53.4%) — and that’s with his league-leading 13 interceptions. He has been so good this season that he’s still producing like a top-three quarterback in terms of efficiency and largely gives the Bills a chance to win every game. Even through the turnovers and an offensive coordinator change, Allen is giving MVP-level quarterback play.
The Bills are 6-6. The other quarterbacks who are averaging over 0.2 expected points added per play this year are Brock Purdy (8-3), Patrick Mahomes (8-3), Dak Prescott (8-3) and Tua Tagovailoa (8-3). That’s it.
There are four other quarterbacks in the league producing at the same level of efficiency as Allen on a per-dropback basis. Those teams are actually seeing their quarterbacks' production rewarded by wins, but the Bills can’t seem to get across the finish line, even with a quarterback living up to his lofty contract status.
Allen is unlikely to win the MVP with his team’s performance and especially with Hurts leading an Eagles squad that’s 10-1 on the season. That’s not necessarily his fault, and it speaks further to the idea that a quarterback’s performance isn’t always going to be reflected in wins and losses. Most of the time it does, but Allen has found himself in a sort of purgatory where he’s getting the Bills close, just not to where they need to be.
Allen, like any other franchise quarterback, isn’t giving credence to the idea that his teammates are letting him down. “I’m extremely confident in our guys,” he said after the game Sunday. “The men that we have in this locker room, we understand where we’re at. So we’ve got good things going.” Where the Bills are is really just unfortunate more than anything. They’re incredibly injured on defense, and they need to restock the depth of this roster in the offseason.
The good thing for the Bills is that they have a quarterback in his prime who is capable of incredible feats on the field. MVP-caliber play doesn’t always get rewarded with an MVP — that’s where Allen finds himself. They still have a chance to win every game, even this season, as long as he’s under center, but their chances of making this season worth it are dwindling by the week.
It’s probably over for the Bills, but Allen leaves a glimmer of hope every week.
