The Road Ahead: Checking on MLB's top 10 prospects, starting with rising star Jackson Holliday

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We're now nearly halfway through the minor-league season, and the next wave of MLB prospects is coming into focus.

Sure, plenty of big names broke camp with their big-league squads, and even more have graduated in the time since then, but many more names are making their way through the lower levels of the minors, with varying amounts of success.

Since we checked in last month, there's a new No. 1 prospect in baseball, but let's start by checking out some players who are already donning big-league uniforms.

Reached their destination

Last month's top prospect, Jordan Walker of the St. Louis Cardinals, is back in MLB and has officially exhausted his rookie eligibility. Eury Pérez, previously No. 6, is also off the list. Three other top prospects — Elly De La Cruz, Bobby Miller and Gavin Williams — are currently in the majors and still officially have prospect status, but for the purposes of this article, we'll consider them graduated.

It's also not like De La Cruz is going back. The infielder is currently the closest thing baseball has to a sensation, leading his Cincinnati Reds to first place in the NL Central while hitting .301/.356/.518. Those numbers are likely to regress, given his .431 batting average on balls in play (which is rarely sustainable above .300), but he doesn't need a batting title to be an electric player.

Here are the other top prospects waiting to get the call.

1. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles

High-A: .301/.441/.486 in 229 plate appearances, single-A: .392/.523/.667 in 65 plate appearances

We mentioned last month that Holliday could give the Orioles a third straight No. 1 overall prospect after Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. He didn't wait long.

Last year's top MLB Draft selection (and the son of former All-Star Matt Holliday) continues to tear through minor-league pitching at an age when most prospects are just getting started in full-season ball. He's got the tools. He's got the production. Every indication points to him sticking at shortstop. MLB Pipeline certainly isn't alone in thinking that Holliday is the top prospect in baseball.

Even the most aggressive of fast tracks won't get Holliday to the majors this year, but the Orioles' future is very bright with him.

2. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Double-A: .251/.306/.412 in 187 plate appearances

The Brewers' fast-rising teenager isn't blowing away Double-A pitching (he wouldn't be the first top prospect in that regard), but there's plenty to like about an outfielder with elite athleticism who could be in the majors before he's legally allowed to drink alcohol. Pipeline rates all of his tools except his arm as above-average, with a 70 on his run leading the way.

Put it this way: Chourio is younger than the guy above and a full level ahead of him. We can give him some time to figure things out.

3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox

Double-A: .177/.258/.418 in 94 plate appearances, High-A: .290/.366/.524 in 164 plate appearances

Mayer was promoted to Double-A on May 29, and the results have been somewhat similar to Chourio's in that there isn't much to worry about yet, especially when the 2021 fourth overall pick is still showing his power (nine of his 14 hits were for extra bases), drawing walks (10.6% walk rate) and not completely flailing out there (20.2% strikeout rate).

If Mayer starts hitting again — and an unusually low .153 batting average on balls in play indicates that he will — it's not unthinkable that he breaks camp with the Red Sox next season.

4. James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

Double-A: .228/.321/.446 in 106 plate appearances, High-A: .293/.392/.580 in 181 plate appearances

The crown jewel of the Nationals' Juan Soto haul is at least showing his power since his promotion to Double-A on May 28. More concerning is a 29.2% strikeout rate since the promotion, but — and this is a theme in this post — he's a 20-year-old just getting started in Double-A.

Now that De La Cruz is in the majors, there might be no combination of size and athleticism that touches Wood in the minors. He'll have a big-league career if his hit tool is remotely viable, but the gains he has shown in the past year leave reason to expect much more.

5. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

Double-A: .240/.335/.451 in 269 plate appearances

Well, would you look at that. Last time we checked in, Lawlar was hitting .190/.315/.350 at Double-A. Since then, he has hit .313/.365/.594.

The former sixth overall pick is one of several promising young players for the Diamondbacks, who are looking pretty good in the present with an NL West-leading 48-33 record.

6. Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers

Double-A: .303/.422/.449 in 225 plate appearances

Here is a 20-year-old who didn't need much time to adjust to Double-A. Carter has continued to show an advanced approach at the plate, in addition to the kind of tools that can make a player a star. He spent some time on the injured list due to wrist soreness but is already back and hitting like normal.

7. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs

Double-A: .280/.364/.486 in 250 plate appearances

The Cubs landed Crow-Armstrong as their return in the Javier Báez/Trevor Williams trade, and that move looks like it's going to pay some very high dividends.

After a standout campaign in Single-A and High-A last year, hitting .312/.376/.520 with 16 homers and 32 steals in 101 combined games, the former first-rounder is performing well enough in Double-A that there might be another promotion in his near future.

8. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Has not pitched this season

We're supposed to be talking about how close prospects are to reaching the majors, but the question with Painter this season has been how close he is to reaching the mound. The 13th overall pick of the 2021 MLB Draft went down with a UCL sprain in March and hasn't pitched since

He has been throwing bullpen sessions but has a few more steps to go before becoming fully operational. It shouldn't be a long wait for the majors once Painter is back, given the amount of buzz around him in spring training.

9. Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres

High-A: .266/.300/.414 in 261 plate appearances

Usually, being the third-best Jackson in the minor leagues doesn't mean much, but the value of that status is at an all-time high this season.

The Padres have inspired questions about their aggression when it comes to trading prospects and sacrificing depth for star power, but Merrill is the top prospect they've kept for themselves. As a large (6-foot-3, 195 pounds), left-handed-hitting shortstop who dealt with injury issues last year, you can sort of see a Corey Seager comparison, but there's still a long way to go for Merrill.

10. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants

Triple-A: 4.53 ERA, 82 strikeouts, 39 walks in 49 2/3 innings

Harrison fell to the third round in the 2020 MLB Draft, but not for lack of talents. Signability concerns left teams afraid to pull the trigger, but the Giants managed to land him with a $2.5 million signing bonus that paid him like a first-rounder.

After spending much of 2022 excelling in Double-A, Harrison has massively struggled with command in Triple-A this season, with a 17.5% walk rate (7.1 per nine innings), but he still figures to get the call to the big leagues at some point this season, especially if the Giants experience more injury issues in the rotation.

It should also be noted that every player above save for Painter and Carter will be playing in the MLB Futures Game on July 8.