The Overhang: Cowboys-Eagles will help determine one NFC wild-card spot, so let's handicap the others

The battle for the NFC wild-card spots (well, two of them anyways) is tight as we enter the home stretch of the season. With apologies to the Dallas Cowboys — who are very likely going to the playoffs and currently the fifth seed entering their huge matchup Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles — and the somebody-has-to-win-it NFC South, I am using this week’s edition of The Overhang to ask a question of the four NFC teams with winning records vying for those final two spots with five weeks left on the regular-season docket.

(And if you want the question I was going to ask of the Cowboys, it was "Can Dak Prescott win the MVP award?" A huge win against a divisional foe on national television will surely help give us more of an answer than whatever words or numbers I want to throw at you. But my answer is yes, if you’re curious. Prescott is playing incredible football right now, and with huge matchups against the Bills, Dolphins and Lions remaining, it’s his award to lose at the moment.)

With the contractually obligated mention of Prescott and the Cowboys out of the way, let’s take a look at the other four NFC wild-card combatants with winning records on this week’s Overhang.

Minnesota Vikings

How does Justin Jefferson’s return help this offense?

I could simply write “a lot,” and I think that would be a satisfactory answer. But let’s look at the current iteration of this Vikings team that features Joshua Dobbs at quarterback and a wonky defense that cranks the dials between 0 and 11 seemingly at the whims of defensive coordinator Brian Flores' particular mood.

The Vikings entered their bye week coming off two close losses to the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears, with Dobbs throwing four interceptions and posting a 27.6% success rate on 36 dropbacks against the Bears in Week 12.

Dobbs was playing well, or at least well enough for the Vikings to be competitive, before that game of woe against the Bears, which cast Dobbs' starting status into question. Now coming out of their bye, head coach Kevin O’Connell said Dobbs is still the starter, which will also help Dobbs become further acclimated to his teammates and coaches after joining midseason.

Another face Dobbs will have to get acclimated to is Justin Jefferson, the superstar wide receiver whose impending return for O’Connell's team is probably how Aragorn felt seeing Gandalf arrive at dawn on the fifth day at Helm’s Deep.

Not only will Jefferson help out Dobbs (for obvious reasons), it will allow other players to move down a notch in the pecking order, easing the matchups for rookie receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson and making this attack that much more dangerous.

Justin Jefferson

WR - MIN - #18

2023 - 2024 season

1,074

Yds

107.4

Y/G

100

Targets

68

Rec

5

TD

Jefferson’s return will also help out the run game! I have written before about how defenses will play Jefferson and other elite wide receivers with more “cloud” coverages, meaning they will play Cover 2 to the side that the elite receiver is aligned. And if aligned outside, the Vikings have done well using Jefferson in motion, which changes the offensive look so defenses get stuck trying to defend the original offense presentation.

Defenses use these cloud coverage looks to essentially create a double-team on that elite wide receiver while also limiting the passing lanes for the quarterback. One defender at the line of scrimmage and another over the top to provide deep help, which also limits the menu of routes available for the offense to use. The Vikings have seen cloud coverage (either Cover 2 or Cover 6) on 27.6% of their early down snaps with Jefferson on the field, which would rank third in the NFL this season. That number dropped to 14.3% without Jefferson on the field, which would put the Vikings at 28th. Jefferson is a true difference-maker for the offense, but also for the defenses that play him, too.

The ways to defeat these looks are simple: have other weapons in your offense (Addison and Hockenson) and run on the defense until the opponents throw their hands up and commit more bodies to shore it up, thus opening up prime 1-on-1 opportunities for a star wide receiver to attack.

The Vikings' run game sees a boom with Jefferson on the field, no matter who is running the ball. The Vikings' running backs have rushed 72 times this year on first and second down with Jefferson on the field, averaging 4.7 yards per rush for a 47.2% rushing success rate and 9.7% explosive rush rate. It’s only a 72-play sample size, but those marks would rank tied for second, first and second in their respective categories.

On the 153 first- and second-down rushes without Jefferson this season? Those numbers drop to 3.2 yards per rush (31st), a 32.7% rushing success rate (T-18th) and an explosive play rate that drops by more than half to 4.6% (27th).

Even controlling for the plays when Kirk Cousins was still healthy after Jefferson was injured, it reflects a drop in rushing effectiveness for the Vikings, with those 66 early down rushes further plummeting in success (31.3%) and explosive rush rates (4.5%).

There are of course more variables in play that can create noise with on/off splits, and the Vikings have battled through various injuries to their running backs room. But this offense is simply less effective running the ball without the threat of Jefferson looming on every play.

With Jefferson returning and Dobbs’ ability to be used on designed runs as well, this Vikings' run game could be about to hit a boom period behind their tight end- and fullback-laden attack, with all of their remaining opponents featuring a bottom-half run defense in success rate. Jefferson’s gravity is felt not only through the air, but on the ground, too, which could help this funky, wonky and exciting Vikings team battle their way to more games in January.

Green Bay Packers

Can the run game continue to polish?

I wrote last week how Jordan Love is a real deal needle-moving quarterback. Now that his fellow young teammates have started to play with more consistency, the offense overall is starting to find a formula that is working: a sound run game (despite constant injuries) and downfield play-action concepts that eat up dozens of yards at a time.

The Packers keep adding tweaks to their rushing attack, constantly using motion and running just about every type of concept you can think of: zone, gap schemes featuring pullers, and a steady diet of end-arounds, reverses and jet sweeps to their dynamic young wide receivers.

The movement and tweaks even apply when they do attack down the field. The Packers' offense does a great job of using every possible motion, formation alignment and angle to shore up their protection, wielding different combinations of offensive linemen, tight ends, running backs and even wide receivers to shore up the edges as Love scans for his next chunk play.

Every play design shows effort, consideration and understanding of players’ strengths and weaknesses from the coaching staff. The results are starting to click with that thoughtful process: Since the Packers' Week 6 bye, they are currently average an explosive pass on 16.2% of their attempts, good for seventh in the NFL over that time, just above the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens. The Packers are ninth in EPA per play, sandwiched between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.

While I really enjoy watching the Packers’ run game and the designs they bring out every week, it hasn’t been necessarily consistent this season. Aaron Jones' absence is the obvious culprit, but other injuries limit some of that final effectiveness that can help put a play over the top.

Here, the Packers use their fullback, No. 44 Henry Pearson, on an orbit motion to give him a running start and lead block. The run goes for a solid gain to A.J. Dillon, but Pearson doesn’t end up hitting anyone despite the interesting design:

This isn’t a criticism of play design or player effort. This is more a reiteration of how young this Green Bay offense still is and how it can continue to get better as the offensive line continues to gel, and until Jones (hopefully) returns over the next few weeks. The Packers still rotate their left tackles series-by-series and even sprinkle in Sean Rhyan at right guard to give him experience (and he might be better than current starter Jon Runyan, so keep an eye there).

Dillon can be an effective running back in doses, but he is not going to remind anyone of Noel Devine’s high school highlights out there — Dillon’s explosive rush rate of 3% sits near the bottom in the league. The Packers simply need to continue to be effective when he gets the ball, throwing jabs at defenses while their aggressive passing game throws uppercuts and their designed runs to wide receivers throws hooks at any defense that wants to lower its safeties down or put bodies into the box.

Green Bay had a season-high 54.2% rushing success rate against the Chiefs on Sunday night and has started to use wide receivers Jayden Reed and Christian Watson (when he’s healthy) in the run game, attacking the edges with their athleticism. With a couple of Love runs to keep defenses honest, as well.

The Packers are starting to find their formula and are a very fun team to watch. If they can continue to find ways to expand their run attack, it could help this explosive young offense find even more consistency.

Los Angeles Rams

Who are these guys?

The Rams' offense is surging. The return of Kyren Williams has also returned the consistency of L.A.'s ground game that features motions and designs that other offenses around the NFL are starting to emulate (hopefully featured more in this digital space soon).

With Matthew Stafford on the field, the Rams currently rank fourth in offensive success rate and EPA per play. Simply put: This offense rocks.

So, that takes us to the Rams' defense, which has had stretches of surprising competency this season despite the collection of “who’s that?” all-stars.

This defense ranks around league average in all of the underlying metrics that I typically look at, like success rate, EPA per play and DVOA. Considering this team traded away Jalen Ramsey this offseason and features seven rookies on their depth chart, that is remarkable. While having Aaron Donald certainly helps, even at his advanced age, the Rams have received positive play from multiple rookies and young players.

Edge defender Byron Young has been a contributor as a secondary pass rusher alongside Donald, racking up five sacks and currently ranking behind only Will Anderson Jr. in quarterback hits per pass rush snap among NFL rookies.

His teammate Kobie Turner currently ranks first among rookies with 5.5 sacks. While some of those are because of help from the scheme and Donald, he is still a disruptive player in his own right at the defensive tackle position. Turner ranks first in run stuffs among rookie defenders and also shows the ability to rush the quarterback from the interior:

Young, Turner and the emergence from other homegrown talent like former undrafted free agent Michael Hoecht have given the Rams several complementary pieces up front for Donald.

Jordan Fuller's healthy return has also been a huge boon for this defense. Fuller played in only three games in 2022 after being a key cog for this defense in 2021, suffering a season-ending injury in Week 18 of that year.

You can feel Fuller’s presence. His intelligence makes him the keystone player on the backend of this defense, where his communication and ability to recognize offensive concepts help limit big plays and squeeze on throws underneath.

And the list of contributors doesn’t stop there! Linebacker Ernest Jones is being used as a hammerhead in the run game while also holding his own as a pass defender. Other defensive backs play with a devil-may-care attitude that can make you crack up when watching them. Look at several Rams defenders celebrating mid-play when a Joe Flacco deep ball was in the air:

There’s a team-first attitude that is apparent when watching this unit. It's not quite the level of the jailhouse dance scene in "The Replacements," but with how the Rams prefer to play zone-heavy looks that require communication and chemistry between their defenders, it is fun to watch a defense work as a hivemind as they snuff out concepts down the field and then celebrate together afterward:

This Rams defense is still essentially Aaron Donald and the Donaldettes, which was generally anticipated by most observers. What wasn't anticipated is the general stretches of good play this unit has flashed and the winning football that multiple former Day 2 or 3 draft picks (or just undrafted players altogether) have been playing.

They don’t have the outright firepower (although Donald is a pretty nice boomstick to have), but they are competent enough to keep this team in games down the homestretch. When combined with a legit top-five offense that can run or pass the ball whichever way their hearts desire, it can make this Rams team not only feisty, but dangerous as well.

Seattle Seahawks

Can this defense figure out its personnel?

The Seahawks' defense is in a place where the strengths and deficiencies of its best (slash most notable) players shake out in a way that are going to force the Seahawks to play in particular ways to get the most out of their key defenders — and to hide the weaknesses of another.

Safety Jamal Adams does his best work when he gets to operate closer to the line of scrimmage, whether that is in the box as a de facto off-ball linebacker or on the edge of the line of scrimmage to pinch inside on run plays.

Rookie Devon Witherspoon, drafted fifth overall this year, does his best work from the slot. He's a true difference-maker from that location, with the ability to impact the game as a tackler, coverage defender and blitzer.

On the other hand, Adams is inconsistent as a pass defender and can struggle when there is more space to cover. His recognition when playing as a deep safety puts him and his defense in a bind when offenses choose to attack. Like the Cowboys with this Brandin Cooks over route:

There seems to be a miscommunication between who exactly should be carrying Cooks on his route; No. 6 Quandre Diggs visibly points when Cooks passes:

Adams gets stuck on no man’s land on the play and ends up closing late, which results in plenty of space and a big gain.

The other thing to point out on that play is linebacker Bobby Wagner (No. 54), who gets tied down by Jake Ferguson’s route and is late to rally to the route over his head. Wagner is the third character of this microbreakdown, with his need on the field as the defensive play-caller on all three downs being outweighed by his limitations, which puts a strain on the calls available to the defense.

It’s something that’s apparent when looking at how Dak Prescott attacked Seattle:

Wagner is a legend of a player who will be enshrined in Canton by the time he retires. But his current iteration does not have the range of his former all-world defender self.

This declining quick-twitch athleticism was apparent as Cooks crossed Wagner’s face on his touchdown in the second quarter last Thursday. It's a play design that isolated Cooks on Wagner, and something that various offenses have liked to attack when they can catch the Seahawks in certain looks:

The Seahawks feature several talented safeties on their roster on top of Adams, with Diggs and Julian Love both bringing versatility with their games. They currently are working through how exactly to best utilize the unique skills of their dynamic players, while also keeping Wagner on the field and concealing his current weaknesses in space. One of those current answers is to put Adams in the slot with Diggs and Love also on the field, creating a “big nickel” three-safety look and bumping Witherspoon outside.

As impactful as Witherspoon has been from the slot during his rookie campaign, he's more “fine” when aligned outside. Like a jazz player forced to read music to play a tune, his free-wheeling style becomes more rigid and “traditional” out there.

Adams’ own tendency to freelance can put the defense in a bind when he operates from the slot, too. Like here, where he pinches inside to try and anticipate a run play, which results in Prescott taking advantage by simply throwing a bubble route out to CeeDee Lamb:

So, how can the Seahawks make all of this work? There are already a couple of play calls and personnels they've used to help get all of their players’ paddles working in the same direction.

If they want to stay in a nickel personnel grouping with two linebackers, Witherspoon in the slot and Adams as one of the two deep safeties, then the Seahawks will have to lean into a mix of Cover 4 (quarters) to give Adams (marked red) help in deep space with another safety or working in unison with a cornerback, and to keep Witherspoon in the slot (marked yellow):

Or they'll have to lean into a “Cover 3 weak” coverage, which means that Adams rotates down into the box away from the offense’s passing strength, with Diggs deep and Witherspoon still in the slot (where he made a great tackle on this example):

That tweet above also shows the Cowboys trying to attack the Seahawks with another vertical concept like the Cooks example before. But this time, Adams is now working from the box to carry Ferguson, with Diggs working over the top. This also keeps Wagner working forward in coverage, which is much more conducive to his skills.

Could this lead to more dime personnel (six defensive backs) on first and second down for the Seahawks? Linebacker Jordyn Brooks injured his ankle against the Cowboys, with veteran Devin Bush filling in his spot. Brooks could return soon, but wouldn’t keeping as many of their defensive backs on the field instead of a fill-in make sense? It gets their best defenders out there as opposed to just swapping one for one.

The Seahawks could even give the green dot (and thus play communication duties) to one of the safeties that’s on the field every down, such as a veteran like Diggs, which would lessen the every-down need for Wagner and thus loosen up the personnel looks they can give. It would be difficult to ask Diggs to become that communicator on the fly in the middle of the season, while also asking a legend like Wagner to play fewer snaps, but these are potential paths to improvement that teams try to seek as they make a playoff push.

The Seahawks currently use six or more defensive backs on 4.3% of their first- and second-down snaps, which currently ranks 13th among NFL defenses, but far below defenses like the Patriots, Vikings and Chiefs that sit well above 10 percent.

Dime personnel, even with Wagner on the field, gives the Seahawks the benefit of getting all of those defensive backs on the field, only now able to be used in ways that make sense. They did it on the very next play as the Cover 3 weak example above, with all of their players on the field in fitting roles. Adams (marked red) is in the box, Witherspoon (yellow) is in the slot, Diggs (blue) is about to rotate down to the middle of the field, and Wagner is surrounded by other bodies to keep his range between the hashes:

The Seahawks' offense has had some great moments but also frustrating stretches, but showed a lot of life against the tough Cowboys defense last Thursday. If their defense can figure out the best way to get all of their players playing at the same octave with the right instruments, they could make some real noise this month (and beyond).