The Numbers Do Lie in Fantasy Baseball: Four pitchers with misleading stats
A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify recent misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.
Spencer Strider’s 3.73 ERA is a lie
Strider ranks first among starters in K%, K-BB% and CSW, and he has a SIERA (2.71) that’s 13% lower than the next-best mark. Yet his ERA doesn’t rank in the top 30. Make trade offers if his managers are concerned that Strider’s two-pitch arsenal has caught up with him. He has one of the biggest differences in ERA and FIP and recently made a mechanical tweak that resulted in increased velocity — and even better stuff.
Strider became the fastest pitcher ever to reach 300 strikeouts and has the most Ks in his first 36 starts in MLB history. An elite Atlanta offense should help with wins as well, so Strider is easily my No. 1 fantasy SP moving forward.
Shane McClanahan’s 2.23 ERA is a lie
McClanahan has had a fantastic season, but his ERA (2.23) and FIP (3.64) have the third-biggest difference among 67 qualified starters. His K-BB% (17.4) and SIERA (3.95) both rank outside the top 25, and his LOB% (90) is the highest in MLB.
More worrisome than the incoming regression is McClanahan leaving his latest start due to a back injury that led to different mechanics and decreased velocity. He wanted to stay in the game and is expected to start Friday, but Sugar Shane was originally projected to be a reliever and wore down badly last season (when his 35.7 K% in the first half dropped to 20.5% after the All-Star break), so there’s cause for concern.
Lance Lynn’s 6.43 ERA is a lie
Fantasy managers likely don’t care or want to hear it, but Lynn has been a bust and destroyer of ratios mostly thanks to bad luck. He has one of the five highest BABIPs and the biggest difference between FIP (4.85) and ERA (6.40) among 67 qualified starters, but that doesn’t do him justice. SIERA is the best future ERA predictor, and Lynn’s 3.83 mark ranks top-25 among SPs — better than McClanahan’s. Moreover, Lynn recently recorded the most whiffs (33) in any game this season with a 16-strikeout performance.
Lynn gets a tough matchup (@LAA) in his next start Thursday — a park that’s favorable for lefty power and against an Angels offense with the second-best wRC+ over the past month — but expect an ERA around 4.00 or (possibly much) lower rest-of-season. Lynn hasn’t recorded a win in more than a month and has become a buy-low opportunity for fantasy managers.
Josh Sborz’s zero saves are a lie
Sborz has made subtle changes resulting in him being one of baseball’s best relievers this season. He has a 0.51 ERA and a 0.34 WHIP with a 24:2 K:BB ratio over his past 17 1/3 innings since the end of May. Over his past 300 pitches, Sborz has recorded the second-most whiffs while allowing zero barrels. Félix Bautista and Sborz are the only relievers who rank top-10 in K-BB%, SwStr% and CSW (ranking first in the latter).
Sborz is a beast who has taken over the setup role in Texas, and he’s one injury away from racking up saves for a first-place Rangers team. Will Smith is entrenched in the closer’s role, but he’ll turn 34 years old next month and has never pitched 70.0 innings in his career; Smith has reached 60.0 innings in just four of nine seasons since becoming a reliever.
Sborz will help your ratios and is one role tweak away from having massive fantasy value. He’s available in 90% of Yahoo leagues.
