The Numbers Do Lie in Fantasy Baseball: Five misleading MLB stats worth a closer look
A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify recent misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Welcome to the debut of our new series, The Numbers Do Lie.
Pete Fairbanks with a lowly three saves is a lie
Despite an MLB-high 20 wins (no other team has more than 16), the Rays have somehow provided the fewest save opportunities in baseball (Oakland has more!). Fairbanks has three of Tampa Bay’s four saves and looks like the team’s clear closer after signing an offseason extension. He’s currently showing the second-best fastball of his career by velocity, vertical movement and Stuff+. Meanwhile, Jason Adam has a 5.01 FIP and a low 26.8% CSW.
The Rays are loaded, leading MLB in both wRC+ (149) and FIP (3.30), and they'll be getting Tyler Glasnow back soon, so Tampa Bay is likely to start providing a bunch of save opportunities moving forward. Despite their committee reputation, the Rays have watched five relievers rack up 35-plus saves over the past decade and led the American League in saves three times since 2010. Fairbanks can be treated as a top-five fantasy closer despite not ranking top-15 in saves right now.
Graham Ashcraft’s 1.88 ERA is a lie
Any starter’s 1.88 ERA isn’t likely “real” and will regress, but that’s especially true of one with a 10.3 K-BB% that ranks outside the top 120 SPs. Ashcraft’s .250 BABIP is among the 20 lowest, and that has somehow occurred with a bottom-five Reds defense that has helped contribute to teammate Nick Lodolo currently sporting by far MLB’s highest (.471) BABIP (Lodolo’s 6.31 ERA is also a lie. He’s top-20 in CSW and got beat up by Tampa Bay’s top offense).
The Reds also provide the sick combo of a bottom-five offense in a top-three hitter’s park. Ashcraft grades top-five in Stuff+, so obviously don’t go dropping him, but he’s a clear sell-high candidate.
José Berríos’ 4.71 ERA is a lie
This would’ve looked more prescient before his past two encouraging starts, but consider this an endorsement regarding his turnaround after an awful start to 2023 (and coming off a down 2022). Berríos’ 4.71 ERA is accompanied by a 2.32 FIP, a 1.08 WHIP and a 30:5 K:BB ratio over 28.2 innings. He’ll start allowing more homers but will also continue to benefit from Toronto adding Kevin Kiermaier’s terrific outfield defense. Berríos ranks top-10 among starters in CSW this season and has seen his average launch angle drop significantly. He should be treated as a real fantasy asset moving forward.
Brandon Marsh’s MLB-high OPS (1.173) is a lie
Marsh also leads MLB with a whopping .488 BABIP despite good but not great exit velocity numbers. The positive news is Marsh’s career hit rate is .387, so regression might not crash that hard. Still, he has clearly experienced good luck while sporting the biggest difference between wOBA and expected wOBA among all hitters this season. Marsh deserves a ton of credit for nearly leading the league in wRC+ and looks like a terrific fantasy pick (THE BAT X projects 27 steals/homers ROS), but he’s very likely to hit 100+ points lower moving forward.
Mason Miller’s 9.00 ERA in Tuesday’s start was a lie
Miller’s nightmare first inning should’ve ended scoreless with a strikeout but instead resulted in four runs allowed, thanks to this comical misplay in center field. The rookie didn’t allow another run in Tuesday’s outing and sits with an 11:2 K:BB ratio after two MLB starts. Put differently, his 6.48 ERA is accompanied by a 1.77 FIP. Concerns regarding wins, innings and the lack of a secondary pitch remain with Miller, but don’t go dropping him based on Tuesday’s start. His average fastball velocity (99.1 mph) is the highest among all starters this season.
