Texas leads the Big 12 Conference football pack. Beyond that? Well, here's our best shot.

Sure, one game is technically in the books for Big 12 Conference play. But, league play well and truly begins this weekend — a swan song for some, and a first chance to make an impression for others, namely UCF.

The Knights, who spent the past decade as members of the American Athletic Conference, draw a relative baptism by fire in traveling to defending Big 12 champion Kansas State. However, the injury bug bit the Wildcats hard in their defeat at Missouri — making a daunting task on paper look more manageable.

UCF prepares to embark on the nine-game gauntlet for the first time, so let's gauge the temperature across the conference. Which squads look like they could be New Year's Six contenders? Which could pull the surprises along the way? Which should spend more time focusing on the current recruiting crop or updating résumés?

UCF football reporter Chris Boyle and News-Journal sports editor Ryan Pritt weigh in, and put each school into tiers based on the opening three weeks of 2023.

UCF's last game: Timmy McClain throws 2 TDs, UCF rolls past Villanova in non-conference finale

Wait, they might actually be back?

Texas (3-0)

Ranked No. 3 in Sunday's latest AP poll after leapfrogging Florida State, Texas is an early favorite to make the College Football Playoff. Yes, the first three quarters against Wyoming were a bit concerning, but the win at Alabama was immense. — Boyle

Meh. I'm not sure the Longhorns are back because I'm not sure Alabama hasn't left. Watching that Tide/Bulls slugfest was like every AFC North game I got stuck with back at home in West Virginia for the last decade-plus. Still, it's not hard to put Texas at the top of this (mostly trash) heap, at least for now. — Pritt

Nonconference, schmonconference ... We trust 'em! Kind of.

Oklahoma (3-0)

The Sooners boast the No. 3 scoring offense (55.7 points per game) and the No. 5 scoring defense (9.3 ppg). Two players with Florida ties — former UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel (82.5% completions, 905 yards, 11 TDs, one INT) and linebacker Danny Stutsman (30 tackles, 4½ TFLs, one sack, one INT) — are among the best in the nation. — Boyle

Oklahoma's three opponents — Arkansas State, SMU and Tulsa — have combined for four wins, three of which came against Prairie View, Stony Brook and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. With Cincinnati and Iowa State up next, I'm going to have to wait until later to go all in on the Sooners. But again, comparatively speaking, they look fine in this spot. — Pritt

TCU (2-1, 1-0)

National runner-up TCU is the first team to put a win on the board in league play, dominating Houston 36-13 Saturday. The Horned Frogs' stunning home loss to Colorado looks less embarrassing now and quarterback Chandler Morris believes the offense is close to hitting its stride. — Boyle

One could make a legitimate case that TCU should be 6-1 heading to Kansas State on Oct. 21. That gives the tadpoles a chance to become Frogs before a brutal closing stretch. Watch running back Emani Bailey, who is fifth nationally in rushing at 119 yards per game. I'm still in on this squad. — Pritt

Kansas State (2-1)

Missouri stung the Wildcats with an SEC-record 61-yard field goal as time expired, and the loss proved costly for K-State from a personnel standpoint as well. Linebacker Daniel Green is done for the year, running back Treshaun Ward is doubtful to face UCF and quarterback Will Howard is questionable with a leg injury. — Boyle

Who had Avery Johnson vs. Timmy McClain on their bingo card for UCF/K-State in Week 4? It's a possibility and if Howard, and Ward for that matter, miss significant time the Cats go from my Big 12 favorite to bowl eligibility concerns. Thus is the margin in the craziest league in America. — Pritt

Ask us again next week

Kansas (3-0)

Kansas escaped an upset bid from Nevada thanks to Devin Neal's go-ahead touchdown in the fourth. The Jayhawks returned 91% of their offensive productivity from 2022, and could prove a handful as long as Jalon Daniels remains healthy. — Boyle

I still don't trust this team with expectations but this might be the most fun team to watch in the league. As much pub as Daniels gets, rightfully so, Neal has been fantastic too, averaging 101 yards per game with five rushing touchdowns. — Pritt

BYU (3-0)

BYU rallied twice from double-digit deficits at Arkansas, scoring the final 17 points and walking out of Fayetteville with a win. Kedon Slovis, formerly of USC and Pittsburgh, has more than 10,000 career passing yards to his name, and Tyler Batty earned Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week honors. — Boyle

That early 14-0 clunker over Sam Houston State was worrisome but alas, the schedule eased up in terms of defense with the SEC's Razorbacks and look out, the Cougars may have found their stride just in time for an old-school, Big 12 shootout with the Jayhawks. And BYU still has the prettiest football stadium in the all the land. — Pritt

UCF (3-0)

Leading the nation in total offense (617.7 ypg) and second in rushing (299.3), the Knights sandwiched a close win at Boise State with home blowouts of Kent State and Villanova. McClain is at the controls for the next few weeks with John Rhys Plumlee nursing an unspecified right leg injury, and he'll face a massive test against Kansas State . — Boyle

What looked like a monumental task, going to Kansas State for a Big 12 debut, now looks like a game against a walking, mostly limping, mass unit. It'll be more about not making mistakes than making big plays for McClain this week and if the Knights can somehow get this one, look out. — Pritt

They're up, they're down, you can move 'em all around

West Virginia (2-1)

Victors of this year's Backyard Brawl, West Virginia picked off Phil Jurkovec three times and held him to 81 passing yards in an emotional 17-6 win over rival Pitt. CJ Donaldson is the engine of the Mountaineers' offense, while Nicco Marchiol played well in relief of injured starting quarterback Garrett Greene. — Boyle

Emotional is right; ya should've seen me in Buffalo Wild Wings Saturday night. Both Greene and Donaldson are injury concerns heading into a game with a Texas Tech team that unbelievably, is the only non-new Big 12 team Mountaineer coach Neal Brown hasn't beaten in his four-plus seasons. — Pritt

Texas Tech (1-2)

The Red Raiders endured a deflating opening two weeks, surrendering a 17-0 lead to lose at Wyoming in overtime and committing four turnovers in a loss to Oregon. Texas Tech still has its Big 12 goals ahead of them, but it's tough to envision them being a major player at this point. — Boyle

I don't know what to do with this team. I still believe the Red Raiders are plenty talented and nonconference losses have never stopped teams from surging during Big 12 play. With Kansas State's ailing health, there may be a good futures bet to lay here, you know, if you're in a state that allows such things. — Pritt

Oklahoma State (2-1)

The Cowboys' 33-7 home loss to South Alabama is an early frontrunner for the most head-scratching result of the season. Mike Gundy continues to play QB roulette with Alan Bowman, Gunnar Gundy and Garret Rangel, though Oklahoma State's defense has produced a respectable 10 sacks to this point. — Boyle

Hey, South Alabama won 10 games last year! Yeah, it's a disappointing loss, but I do think it's a case of a little overlooking and a Jaguars team that's much better than most realize. I still trust Gundy more than most, if not all, coaches in the mid-tier and below. But at least hit double digits for me this week, Mike! — Pritt

Cincinnati (2-1)

The honeymoon period for Scott Satterfield ended abruptly with a 31-24 overtime loss to in-state rival Miami. Cincinnati won the previous 16 meetings, but the all-time series is now dead even at 60-60-7. Oklahoma heads to Nippert Stadium this weekend for the Bearcats' Big 12 debut. — Boyle

The Bear kitties still possess the seventh-best total offense in the country (525.3 ypg) and Cincy will likely need all of it and to hang in with the Sooners. But a noon kickoff in the Eastern time zone with a suddenly desperate team eager to make a first impression at home against a Big 12 blueblood? This one smells funny. — Pritt

A snowball's chance in Waco

Baylor (1-2)

Starting quarterback Blake Shapen remains sidelined with an MCL sprain, and Sawyer Robertson has struggled, completing 45.2% of his attempts for 444 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. The Bears conclude a four-game, opening homestand with Texas this week. — Boyle

Shew wee. Speaking of smelling funny. The stench off this bottom trio is downright offensive though none of them have done much offensively, ranking 11th, 12th and 14th in league scoring respectively. But I still believe in Dave Aranda and his defensive prowess and I think this is a scary game for the Longhorns on Saturday night in Waco. — Pritt

Houston (1-2)

Houston's lone points in its Big 12 debut came courtesy of Matthew Golden's 98-yard kickoff return and three Griffin Kell field goals. The Cougars are also giving up a league-worst 31 points per game, including 43 in a double-overtime loss to crosstown foe Rice. — Boyle

We already knew a coach might not still be employed by the time West Virginia visits Houston for a former-coach-vs.-former-team slugfest on Oct. 12. We just didn't know the coach that could be out would be Dana Holgorsen. — Pritt

Iowa State (1-2)

Regardless of whether Chase Contreraz's field goal sailed over the upright or wide of it, Iowa State's offense was downright woeful. The Cyclones rushed for 38 yards, converted just 3 of 11 tries on third down and made just two trips into the Ohio red zone in a 10-7 loss. This, after the team was rocked last month in a betting scandal. — Boyle

Ya gotta feel for Matt Campbell, who I still believe is an outstanding coach. His roster is crippled and the Cyclones seem lightyears away, in the wrong direction, from the squad that was contending for league titles just a couple years ago. Just don't tell him he's on the hot seat. — Pritt

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Big 12 football breakdown: Texas is back, Baylor is not, TCU never left