Team-By-Team Notes
With the Reds playing their worst ball of the year in recent weeks, there’s no longer any doubt that they’ll be sellers. Mike Leake’s departure appears assured, and fellow free-agent-to-be Johnny Cueto seems likely to go as well. The big question is whether Aroldis Chapman joins them.
The view from here says the Reds should tear it all down. The 2016 rotation looks like it could be abysmal, and Chapman will be a free agent after next year. Given good health until then, Chapman is virtually certain to chase -- and probably deserve -- the biggest contract ever handed to a closer. The Reds aren’t really in any position to be giving it to him.
Most likely to go from the offensive side are Jay Bruce and Marlon Byrd. Brandon Phillips would be a short-term upgrade for a few teams, but the fact that he’s owed $27 million in 2016-17 leaves him with negative trade value. Selling the 29-year-old Todd Frazier at the peak of his value would make some sense, but since he’s become such a fan favorite and he’s under control through 2017, it seems doubtful that the Reds will move him. Ideally, they could do well enough with Chapman, Cueto and Leake trades to return to contention in 2017.
In the meantime, the next year and a half figure to be a struggle. Right now, the rotation for 2016 includes Anthony DeSclafini, Michael Lorenzen, Tony Cingrani and maybe Raisel Iglesias (he might also be a long-term closer candidate). Homer Bailey could return from Tommy John surgery in June or July. The Reds minor league system isn’t bad, and guys like Robert Stephenson and Amir Garrett could be ready sometime next season. For this year, there’s Cingrani and little else of interest ready to step in for Cueto or Leake. J.J. Hoover would be the clear favorite to replace Chapman in the closer’s role if necessary. Yorman Rodriguez, who leads Triple-A Louisville with nine homers this year, could get a starting assignment if Bruce or Byrd goes, but he’d only have value in NL-only leagues.
American League Notes
Baltimore: With his roster spot in jeopardy, Chris Parmelee went 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI on Sunday. The Orioles will likely drop either Parmelee or Nolan Reimold when they go back to carrying 12 pitchers this week. Both have struggled of late, but Parmelee has been playing a lot more than Reimold, particularly since Chris Davis shifted to the outfield. … FOXSports.com’s Jon Morosi has the Orioles in the hunt for Justin Upton, which would be an uncharacteristic kind of strike for the team but one that would provide quite a lift. If the Orioles do get a left fielder, it’d obviously mean less action for Parmelee and Travis Snider.
Boston: Brian Johnson will make his first major league start Tuesday against the Astros after going 8-6 with a 2.73 ERA and an 81/26 K/BB ratio in 85 2/3 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket. The left-hander has never been viewed as having much upside, but he’s gotten some of the best results in the minors since the day he was drafted in 2012. I think he’ll prove to be pretty good, though Boston’s below average defense and the fine hitting environment at Fenway will take a toll on his numbers. For this year, he looks like more of an AL-only guy than a mixed-league starter. … It’s still hard to see whether the Red Sox will buy or sell. I do think they might end up moving Alejandro De Aza, who has been their best hitter since being plucked off the scrap heap (.316/.358/.561 in 98 AB). That would allow them to give Jackie Bradley Jr. one final opportunity. … There’d still seem to be very little chance of an Allen Craig deal. He has 10 extra-base hits in 191 at-bats at Pawtucket. In 2012, he had 57 extra-base hits in 469 at-bats for the Cardinals.
Chicago: In 541 minor league games, Tyler Saladino played third base five times. He did so twice in 52 games this year. Nonetheless, he was immediately thrust into a starting role at the position when the White Sox called him up 10 days ago, and he’s impressed enough that the White Sox just DFA’d the former starter, Conor Gillaspie, on Sunday. Saladino probably won’t have the bat to carry the hot corner for the long haul; he projects best as a utilityman. However, he is somewhat interesting for fantasy purposes anyway, mostly because he stole 25 bases in 27 attempts during his 52 games at Charlotte. Plus, the White Sox really don’t have anyone else they want to play at third. Matt Davidson, who was supposed to be the future there when he was acquired from the Diamondbacks for Addison Reed prior to the 2014 season, is looking like a complete bust; he’s hitting .216/.316/.377 in his third season in Triple-A. I wouldn’t recommend Saladino in shallow mixed leagues, but those in deeper formats desperate for steals could try him.
Cleveland: Rather than buying or selling, the Indians will probably just let things continue to play out. Upgrading to Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela on defense has made the pitching staff look better, though I’m still skeptical that Urshela is the answer at third. What the Indians really need is to do better than Michael Bourn in center, but none of the Triple-A alternatives -- Tyler Holt, James Ramsey and Tyler Naquin -- are standing out. Holt has the best numbers; he’s batting .288/.378/.354 with 18 steals for Columbus. Ramsey is hitting .245/.325/.386 and has the least range of the trio. Naquin is hitting .244/.343/.415 in 33 games since being promoted from Double-A. It’s Naquin getting the time in center for Columbus, pushing Holt to a corner. If Naquin can get hot, he’d probably get the first shot to replace Bourn.
Detroit: Justin Verlander’s start Sunday got pretty difficult to watch. He gave up seven runs for the second time this month, and he fell to 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA overall. The Tigers have lost all six of his starts. It’s not like Verlander’s stuff is all that bad. He’s still throwing 92-95 mph, and his curveball remains strong. His fastball is getting pounded, though, and he can’t seem to adjust. He needs to throw more offspeed pitches, but even when he did that against the Orioles, it didn’t help. I think he’ll bounce back to an extent, but probably not to the point that anyone who now drops him in a mixed league will have reason to regret it. … Both Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene need good starts against the Mariners in order to secure their rotation spots. Still, it helps their cases a bunch that the Tigers have no one else they want to turn to. Plus, at this point, things seem bleak enough that it won’t make a lot of sense to dip into the weak farm system to bring in another marginal starter, not unless it comes quite cheap. … I wonder if the Tigers might pick up Gillaspie on waivers. He’s nothing special, but he’s a better use of a roster spot than Marc Krauss.
Houston: The Astros are getting to showcase Jon Singleton with Chris Carter nursing an ankle injury, but that might not be such a good thing with the way Singleton has looked so far. It’s pretty telling that the Astros appear to be so open to moving him, given that neither Carter nor Evan Gattis seems like an outstanding long-term option at first base (Gattis still hasn’t even played the position at all). If the Astros think Singleton is worse than those two (even as the significantly cheaper player going forward), why should another team give up much for him? His power remains intriguing, but he’s a flawed player. … After giving it some thought, the Astros have decided to stick with Vincent Velasquez as their fifth starter for now. I’m not really sure what the debate was -- he’s clearly the superior option in my mind -- but he might yet get bumped if the Astros trade for a starter.
Kansas City: I’d sure like to see what Kris Medlen (elbow) could do as a starter for the Royals, but it’s becoming more likely that he’ll be assigned to the pen upon coming off the disabled list, something that could happen this week. Jason Vargas (elbow) seems like a shaky bet the rest of the way after two DL stints so close together, but he probably deserves to keep his rotation spot while healthy. I’d say the Royals should convince Jeremy Guthrie to pull a Tim Hudson and go sit on the DL for a couple of weeks, but it doesn’t look like it’ll happen.
Los Angeles: It’s too bad Kole Calhoun still isn’t running at all, but now that he’s found his power stroke and he’s back hitting in front of Mike Trout, I suspect he’ll be a top-25 outfielder the rest of the way. … Of course, the Angels are still going to try to add an outfielder (Bruce and Byrd would seem to be possibilities), but that shouldn’t affect Calhoun’s playing time. Matt Joyce might find himself on the waiver wire once that happens. … Matt Shoemaker will get one more start Tuesday against the Twins before the Angels bring back Jered Weaver (hip) from the DL next weekend, but it appears that he’ll head to the pen afterwards. Andrew Heaney has earned an extended look.
Minnesota: More than anything, the Twins could use a catching upgrade at the trade deadline. However, there isn’t a lot out there. A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz are the obvious names, but Pierzynski isn’t a great defender and Ruiz is just a part-timer now. The Reds’ Brayan Pena is a backup. Ryan Hanigan would be nice, but the Red Sox might not sell. The Twins still seem rather content with Kurt Suzuki anyway, though they shouldn’t be. Unfortunately, Josmil Pinto probably won’t be an option; he’s still on the shelf in Triple-A with concussion symptoms. … Oswaldo Arcia is hitting .339/.413/.821 with eight homers in 15 games this month for Triple-A Rochester, but the Twins have been in no hurry to try to squeeze him in. That will almost certainly change if Miguel Sano’s ankle injury puts him on the disabled list, but the Twins suspect he’ll need only a few days off.
New York: Rob Refsnyder’s stint as the Yankees’ second baseman lasted all of four games, as the team wasn’t willing to cut Brendan Ryan to keep him around after Carlos Beltran came off the disabled list on Sunday. If the Yankees really thought Refsnyder was ready, they probably would have made the move. However, Refsnyder’s defense just doesn’t measure up, and it’s not like he’s a sure thing to outhit Stephen Drew, either. There’s some thought that Refsnyder will go in a trade prior to the deadline; he’s more expendable than the Yankees’ top tier of prospects. Drew certainly doesn’t possess a whole lot of job security at this point, but I do believe he’s the best they have right now. … Andrew Miller has been a bit shaky since coming off the DL, but without any obvious signs of concern. I still think the Yankees should have left Dellin Betances in the closer’s role, but it’s clearly Miller’s job if he stays healthy.
Oakland: The A’s like to strike early whether they’re buying or selling, but Ben Zobrist, Scott Kazmir and Tyler Clippard are all hanging around. I still imagine all three will go in the end. Jesse Chavez is another possibility to be moved; he can help a contender at the back of the rotation without breaking a budget. … Of course, the A’s will have to dig deep to field a full rotation if they move both Chavez and Kazmir, what with Jesse Hahn (elbow) also set to miss at least a month. That might mean a return to the majors for Barry Zito, who has a 3.57 ERA through 19 starts for Triple-A Nashville. Chris Bassitt is filling in for Hahn and offers AL-only value. … It’s still not quite clear who would replace Clippard in the closer’s role, but a job share for Fernando Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz seems like one possibility. Sean Doolittle (shoulder) would seem to be a month away in a best-case scenario. … Jake Smolinski is getting time in the outfield and might have a spot all to himself come August, depending on what happens as far as trades and Coco Crisp’s health. He has AL-only value.
Seattle: Fernando Rodney had his chance to reclaim the closer’s role, but giving up runs in three straight appearances handed the job right back to Carson Smith, who closed out the Yankees on Saturday. Rodney gave Smith a little more job security Sunday when he surrendered a go-ahead homer to Mark Teixeira in the 2-1 loss to the Yankees. … Logan Morrison is cold of late, but rather than give Jesus Montero a crack at the job, they sent him back down Sunday. Maybe they’ll rethink things if Morrison doesn’t pick it up over the next 10 days. … The Mariners are very much in the catching market, though their preference would just be for Mike Zunino to hit his weight or even Chris Taylor’s weight. Pierzynski and Pena are possibilities.
Tampa Bay: The Rays are expected to get Steven Souza (finger) back Tuesday, which could lead to Grady Sizemore’s exit. An alternative would be to drop Joey Butler, who has struggled mightily of late, but that seems like a long shot. With Souza and Kevin Kiermaier playing regularly and John Jaso and Brandon Guyer essentially platooning, there’s only one going to be one lineup spot open each day for David DeJesus or Butler (and that’s without Guyer getting the occasional start against righties, something that doesn’t happen often enough). … Asdrubal Cabrera (hamstring) seems to be making quick progress, but he won’t be eligible to come off the disabled list until next Monday.
Texas: It’s a crummy way to look at it, but the Rangers’ recent struggles might be the best thing for the franchise. It was always hard to imagine the team as serious contenders this year, but since it was very much in the thick of the AL West race, there was talk of going out and getting another starter and a reliever. Selling would make a lot more sense. Yovani Gallardo’s value is up with his recent success, and it’s possible he’ll bring back more than the Rangers gave up for him in their deal with the Brewers over the winter. … A deal involving Leonys Martin wouldn’t really be buying or selling, but it’s easy to see that materializing because of the Rangers’ frustrations with their center fielder. Despite the poor year, he’ll probably command $5 million or so in his first year of arbitration, and while that’s obviously a fine price for a solid regular, he just hasn’t shown anything that suggests he’ll take it to the next level offensively. The Rangers could move on and just give Delino DeShields Jr. the rest of the year to show whether he’s a possible answer in center field. … I imagine Shawn Tolleson will stay even if the Rangers do sell, largely because I doubt anyone else will see him as a closer and pay a substantial price for him. On the off chance that he is moved, Keona Kela could take over as closer. But the Rangers really won’t want to go that route this early.
Toronto: Aaron Sanchez (lat) hasn’t excelled on his rehab assignment, giving up five runs with a 6/5 K/BB ratio over eight innings to date. The Jays were leaning towards shifting him to the bullpen anyway -- their priority is landing a starting pitcher in a trade -- and his struggles in the minors seemed to be sufficient to clinch the decision. Sanchez could quickly become a late-game option once he returns this week. Still, the hope of saves isn’t particularly high, particularly not with the way Roberto Osuna is throwing. Besides, the Jays would still like to add a (cheap) veteran reliever, too. … The Jays just moved Dalton Pompey back up to Triple-A after a very successful run in Double-A (.351/.405/.545 in 31 games), and he went 5-for-12 in his first three games back. It bodes well for his chances of returning to the majors in some capacity next month.
National League Notes
Arizona: It looks like it will be a pretty quiet trade deadline for the Diamondbacks. Brad Ziegler appears likely to stick around as the closer, with his 2016 contract option assured of being picked up barring a significant injury. The club would still love to move Aaron Hill, but it would take eating much of his contract (or attaching one of their best prospects to him in a trade). I doubt they’ll do much at all. … Chase Anderson went on the DL with triceps inflammation, opening up a spot in Arizona’s rotation. Allen Webster has been ineffective since returning to Triple-A, so Josh Collmenter might be the favorite to step in. The Diamondbacks do have Jhoulys Chacin sporting a 3.35 ERA in six starts for Reno, which could put him in line for a look-see at some point. Aaron Blair hasn’t pitched great since his promotion to Triple-A (or in the Pan Am games), so he’d seem to be out as an option.
Atlanta: Jim Johnson’s success has continued in the closer’s role in Jason Grilli’s absence, but it still sounds like he’s a strong candidate to be traded before the end of the month, leaving David Aardsma, Arodys Vizcaino and perhaps newcomer Jason Frasor as candidates to close for the Braves. Mike Foltynewicz appears much more likely to move back into the rotation than get a crack at the job. Vizcaino has been showing high-90s gas since debuting earlier this month, but he still has control issues and there are clear financial incentives to keep him out of the closer’s role. While he’s pitched just 26 innings as a major leaguer, Vizcaino already has nearly 2 1/2 years of service time because of all of his days on the DL. It won’t be enough to qualify him for arbitration this winter, but every save he earns will start really adding to his salary come 2017. He needs to prove himself in a setup role for a while longer anyway. I suspect Aardsma would get the first chance to close if Johnson goes, though I have more faith in Frasor’s ability to get the job done. … Manny Banuelos has impressed in his starts, but he’s nearly done in that role because of his innings limit. He’s up to 99 innings right now after throwing 76 last year in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.
Chicago: The Cubs entered Sunday’s game with two players with OPSs above .750 (Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, of course). Chris Coghlan is third on the team with a .407 slugging percentage. It’s pretty amazing that they’ve gone 49-41 with such modest results from the lineup. The Cubs want to add a starter and have had some Cole Hamels discussions. They probably have a greater need for offense, but without any one obvious spot to upgrade, they seem more likely to stand pat or settle for a complementary player (someone to grab some of Dexter Fowler’s at-bats would be nice). Javier Baez’s return to health might help, should that materialize next month. … Kyle Schwarber will be a part-time player during Miguel Montero’s absence, but he should be one of use in shallow mixed leagues anyway. The Cubs have no plans to let him catch Jon Lester or Jake Arrieta. ... The Cubs made the call to bring up Rafael Soriano, dropping Edwin Jackson in the process, but I doubt he'll have any fantasy value.
Cincinnati: Cingrani (shoulder) appears likely to come off the DL and get a start in the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Cubs. A permanent rotation spot is likely to come once the Reds make their trades. He’s not worth an immediate grab in mixed leagues, but he is one to watch. He’s pitched 14 scoreless innings with an 18/6 K/BB ratio during his rehab assignment.
Colorado: LaTroy Hawkins has pitched 10 1/3 scoreless innings over the last month, seemingly putting him in line to go back into the closer’s role if John Axford is traded. My guess is that Axford stays, mostly because I don’t think anyone will give up a significant prospect for him. … Corey Dickerson (foot) began a rehab assignment Sunday and should return during the middle of the week, assuming his plantar fasciitis doesn’t flare back up.
Los Angeles: Corey Seager hasn’t really slumped at any point, but neither has he been able to put together much of a hot streak lately. He has a .788 OPS in 13 games in July after coming in at .796 and .799 in his first two months in Triple-A. He’s also missed the last two games with an illness, so even with Jimmy Rollins still struggling, a July callup doesn’t appear to be in the offing. … The Dodgers seem hopeful that Yasmani Grandal will avoid the DL after suffering a jaw injury when he took a foul tip off his mask Sunday.
Miami: The Marlins bringing back Casey McGehee to play over Derek Dietrich looks like one of the boneheaded moves of the season, even if McGehee does manage to go back to hitting like he did last year. Dietrich just turned 26 on Saturday. He has a .900 OPS in 66 at-bats this season. He had an .871 OPS during his time in Triple-A the last two years. He obviously deserves an extended look, yet he’s started just one of the Marlins’ last five games. He might even be back in Triple-A right now if not for Dee Gordon’s thumb injury, which put Martin Prado at second. … Prado is probably going to be traded if anyone wants to take on his 2016 salary. He’s owed $11 million next year, though the Yankees are covering $3 million of it. … Mat Latos still looks like a lock to be traded, assuming his foot injury proves minor, and Dan Haren is a good bet to be sent elsewhere, too. Maybe even Tom Koehler will go. The Marlins want to give longer looks to Jose Urena, Justin Nicolino and Adam Conley in an effort to see who should be included in next year’s rotation.
Milwaukee: Carlos Gomez, Gerardo Parra and Adam Lind remain the Brewers most likely to go. I think Jean Segura stays, at least until the offseason. He doesn’t look like an upgrade for a contender, and while a rebuilding team could do worse than to take a shot, those deals tend to come together in the winter, not the summer. Aramis Ramirez is hitting, but he’s still not all that attractive and he’ll remain available into August. I believe Francisco Rodriguez stays put, but if I’m wrong about that, Jeremy Jeffress should get the first chance to close, unless the Brewers really want to give Jonathan Broxton the job in the hopes that someone might trade for him in a waiver deal next month. The starting pitchers figure to stay put. … The Brewers will be hurting for outfielders if they deal Gomez and Parra. Matt Long could get a callup to play center. Old standby Logan Schafer is also available, but he’s hit just .250/.289/.341 in Triple-A. Ideally, the Brewers would pick up a young center-field option in one of their deals. … The Brewers might be a possibility to claim Gillaspie from the White Sox. They do have Matt Dominguez in Triple-A, but another corner bat could be of use with Lind and Ramirez possibilities to go.
New York: Michael Conforto seems to have come out of his three-week slump, having gone 8-for-16 with two homers in his last four games. I’m not all that confident he’s ready to hit in the majors, but he seems like a better bet than Michael Cuddyer playing at 70 percent. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see a move come soon. … Wilmer Flores hasn’t homered in the last month, and he’s doing his usual awful job of getting on base. The door might be open for a healthy Dilson Herrera to get back into the mix at second for the Mets. He’s batting .298/.355/.456 this month and 340/.380/.483 overall in Triple-A.
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola’s much-awaited debut comes Tuesday against the Rays. He wasn’t quite dominant during his time in Triple-A, amassing a 3.58 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over six starts. However, his 33/9 K/BB ratio in 32 2/3 innings was fine. I think he is ready for the majors, but I don’t expect he’ll be all that valuable for fantasy purposes. Not only are the Phillies a terrible team overall, but they’re pretty bad defensively; the club has the worst spread between its pitching staff’s FIP (4.33) and ERA (4.76) in the league. Nola isn’t going to be a huge strikeout guy to overcome that. I’d rank him in the 70s among SPs for the rest of the season, giving him value in deeper mixed leagues, but probably not to first-division clubs in 10- or 12-teamers.
Pittsburgh: The Pirates, already possibly in the market for a first baseman, may have to go out and get themselves another infielder after Jordy Mercer’s leg injury Sunday. Jung Ho Kang was already playing regularly in Josh Harrison’s absence, and while Sean Rodriguez might not be a disaster as a regular at third, he’s better utilized in a bit role. Brent Morel will probably take Mercer’s spot on the roster, but he’s no better of a stopgap. He was hitting .266/.322/.441 with nine homers in 297 at-bats in Triple-A. … First base is a problem because Pedro Alvarez still isn’t hitting much and has remained a dreadful defensive first baseman even after getting a few months to settle in. Lind is one possible upgrade here.
St. Louis: The Cardinals have downplayed concerns about Trevor Rosenthal’s arm, but it’s a little scary that he suddenly needs this extra rest. Kevin Siegrist isn’t a bad use of a roster spot in mixed leagues right now. … Jaime Garcia (groin) will make a rehab start Thursday and could return next week, though with Tim Cooney pitching well, there’s no big rush.
San Diego: Will the Padres go as crazy selling at the deadline as they did buying in the offseason? It’s hard to put anything past A.J. Preller, assuming he still has the complete and total confidence of ownership after his offseason spree cost the Padres most of their top prospects and failed to turn the team into a contender. I’m guessing Justin Upton, Ian Kennedy, Joaquin Benoit and Will Venable go and that Craig Kimbrel, James Shields, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner stay. …Upton’s exit could give Rymer Liriano a shot in the outfield. He’s hit .278/.378/.417 with seven homers and 12 steals in 295 at-bats for Triple-A El Paso. I don’t think he’d be a mixed-league outfielder, but he wouldn’t be a bad speculative pickup now in NL-only leagues. … Wil Myers (wrist) is likely to play first base against at least left-handers after coming off the DL, possibly in around two weeks. He might also get time there against righties, depending on how Yonder Alonso is swinging the bat when Myers returns. Alonso is hitting just .218/.322/.244 with no homers and two RBI over the last 30 days.
San Francisco: Indications are that Tim Lincecum (forearm) will join Ryan Vogelsong in the bullpen once he comes off the disabled list, leaving the Giants with a rotation of Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Chris Heston and Tim Hudson. That’s just how I like it, though Cain hasn’t looked particularly good since coming off the DL and Hudson has been pretty shaky throughout. Cain just doesn’t have any margin for error with his fastball at the moment, yet his command also isn’t completely back after the long layoff. It’s a bad combination, and it seems like every fastball he leaves in a bad spot is getting tattooed. He still should get better. … Nori Aoki (leg) appears likely to return before the end of the month. The Giants could still consider adding an outfielder anyway, but it hardly seems like an urgent need with Pence back and Gregor Blanco performing so well.
Washington: Anthony Rendon (quad) is expected back from the DL within a day or two, with Jayson Werth (wrist) and Ryan Zimmerman (foot) also likely to be activated this week. That means Clint Robinson will head back to the bench, even though I think he’d be a better option at first base than Zimmerman the rest of the way. Emmanuel Burriss and Wilmer Difo will likely be the first two players bounced from the Nationals’ roster. More interesting is whether the team will finally cut Dan Uggla as move No. 3 or if Matt den Dekker will be optioned out. … Joe Ross is expected to get the nod against the Mets on Tuesday, making him a fine streaming option in mixed leagues.
