SWFL High School Baseball: Who's in, who's out? Our predictions for regional champions

The baseball state playoffs are finally here.

Seeds and matchups were announced on Friday afternoon for each region in the state. Numerous local squads earned playoff berths as expected.

Island Coast is facing the pressure of winning back-to-back state titles. Naples is trying to return to Hammond Stadium for the state finals as is Canterbury in Class 2A. Charlie Maurer is looking to take St. John Neumann to a Final Four, something he did three times leading Barron Collier.

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Teams in bold denote district champions. Teams in italics are local.

Class 6A-Region 3

(1) Sickles vs. (8) Plant City

(2) East Lake at (7) Riverdale

(3) Gaither vs. (6) Palmetto Ridge

(4) Bloomingdale vs. (5) Lennard

Analysis: This is a Tampa-dominated region, with six of the eight teams coming from the Tampa Bay area. Those two other teams are Riverdale and Palmetto Ridge, which are underdogs to make it out alive. Sickles has been one of the state's best all season, coming in at fifth statewide in this cycle with losses to Jefferson and Jesuit. Sickles just beat the region's No. 2 team, East Lake, in the district title game. Don't be shocked if those two teams meet up again after the Gryphons won 3-2 to win the district title.

Riverdale faces an uphill path, having to go through second seed East Lake, but will get that game at home by virtue of winning the district championship, while East Lake fell to Sickles. Palmetto Ridge, despite losing to Riverdale, jumped the Raiders in the rankings and will have to face Gaither on the road.

"Matt (English) will be ready to throw again next Wednesday," Riverdale coach Bob Pringle said. "He’s got six days off... They don't like to lose. We've been down games, we've been up games, we've won close games."

Regional Champion: Sickles

Class 5A-Region 3

(1) Jesuit vs. (8) North Fort Myers

(2) Osceola vs. (7) Seminole

(3) Parrish vs. (6) Island Coast

(4) Seminole at (5) Naples

Analysis: While Island Coast and Naples have pathways to get to the Final Four, both teams will have to go through Jesuit, the defending champions in Class 5A who have been as good as anyone statewide. Naples is a team to watch, especially if Johnny King and Reilly Witmer are both on their A-game on the mound. The Golden Eagles and Jimmy Nocera put it together when it mattered most a season ago, and they very easily could do it again with Michael Graziano heating up at the leadoff spot at the right time. Naples has five arms with over 19 innings pitched, with King and Witmer's innings being preserved specifically for the postseason.

As good as Island Coast has been this season hitting the baseball, their pitching outside of Kevin Martinez has been questionable at best, and their drop to sixth in the region reflects that. Martinez is 10-0 with a 1.29 ERA this season, with a WHIP of .837 and 11 earned runs across 59 2/3 innings pitched. The rest of Coast's pitching staff is 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA. Their combined WHIP is 1.64 with 62 earned runs across 113 2/3 innings pitched. In their last 11 games dating back to April 6, the team, Martinez included in that group, has allowed 66 runs, or six runs per game. In their first 16 games, that same pitching staff only allowed 26 runs (1.63 runs per game).

“We’re just going to get a good practice Monday and put Kevin on the mound Tuesday and see if we can get to (Friday) and go from there,” Island Coast coach Clint Montgomery said. “That’s all we can do. If we still hit, we’ve still got a chance.”

As North Fort Myers proved in the Class 5A-District 11 title game, along with Gulf Coast and nearly Evangelical Christian last week, that formula of success simply is not sustainable. That's especially when this region features six teams ranked inside the Top 100 statewide. Island Coast must outhit some very talented programs to have a chance, especially against a Jesuit team that's hitting .340 against a schedule that ranks third statewide. This all hinges on Martinez, who will likely have to pitch in the regional quarterfinals. The Flagler signee has shown some vulnerability, allowing six earned runs and 14 total baserunners over his last two starts against Community School and Mariner, while allowing just five earned runs in his previous nine appearances.

“We’re glad that we got the win,” North coach Derrick Conaster said after being Island Coast. “On to Tampa Jesuit which is a pretty big consolation prize there.”

Regional Champion: Jesuit

Class 4A-Region 3

(1) Dunedin vs. (8) Estero

(2) McKeel vs. (7) Lake Region

(3) Jefferson vs. (6) Robinson

(4) Lemon Bay vs. (5) Hardee

Analysis: This region is a tough one to envision a local squad getting out of as Dunedin is the clear favorite to make it to Hammond Stadium. With just two teams ranked inside the Top 100, you can almost sharpie in Dunedin and McKeel for the regional championship. Jefferson has an outside chance of getting there but will need to string it together at the right time as a No. 3 seed. As long as FAU commit Trey Beard is dealing as he usually does on the mound, Dunedin should be able to get out of the region quite comfortably.

Regional Champion: Dunedin

Class 3A-Region 2

(1) Calvary Christian vs. (8) Bell Creek

(2) Tampa Catholic vs. (7) Fort Meade

(3) Berkeley Prep vs. (6) Avon Park

(4) Bishop Verot vs. (5) Clearwater Central Catholic

Analysis: The Vikings will be one of the tougher outs in the region as Verot has been competitive in virtually every game this season. Of their nine losses, seven of them have come by three runs or fewer, with the two exceptions being national No. 2 Stoneman Douglas, a 4-0 loss, and national No. 8 Bishop Gorman (Nev.), a 5-0 loss.

The pitching of Aidan Knaak on the mound has never been a question mark, as the Clemson signee has struck out 103 batters over 61 innings. Over his last four outings, left-hander Timmy Lawson has allowed just three hits and seven walks with 23 strikeouts over 13 innings. If that trend continues, the Vikings could be in a very strong position to take down Calvary Christian, with Knaak possibly set to face their lineup. That doesn't include Jason Bello or Brett Flock, who have both shown they can eat up innings while limiting opposing teams.

Over their last seven games, Verot is hitting .434 (76-for-175) with just 25 strikeouts (14.3%). Casey Scott's team is seeing the ball at a very good time, which gives them a very compelling case to win the region as a No. 4 seed.

Regional Champion: Calvary Christian

Class 2A-Region 3

(1) Canterbury vs. (8) Community School

(2) Northside Christian vs. (7) Carrollwood Day

(3) St. John Neumann vs. (6) SFCA

(4) Out-of-Door vs. (5) Seffner Christian

Analysis: This is a region that is very top heavy with each of the top four seeds having an equal chance of making it to the Final Four. The top seed, Canterbury, appears vulnerable. Outside of an Austin Schrowe who's not 100 percent, the velocity Canterbury needs out of their left-handed arm to get back to a Final Four just isn't there, and that was evident Thursday night as the Cougars lost the district title to St. John Neumann in the late stages. Schrowe's fastball topped out at 86 MPH early on, and by the sixth inning, it was just below 80 MPH.

"I've got no clue," Canterbury coach Frank Turco said of who he may face. "I'm gonna figure it out and assess (Saturday) when we have practice. I told them to come ready to practice tomorrow, and we'll see where the chips lie. We'll play whoever is in front of us. We'll figure it out from here."

St. John Neumann could be a team to keep an eye on, as the Celtics have won 10 in a row. Charlie Maurer's 2021 Barron Collier team followed a similar trajectory, winning 14 straight before falling in the Final Four that year. Neumann has the pitching to get there, and Tyler Kozera showed little signs of velocity drop on Thursday. The Celtics must get past SFCA first, who have shown they're a scrappy baseball club. In their last two meetings, Neumann defeated the King's 7-4 and 5-2. An upset isn't out of the realm there, especially if the King's put it together at the right time.

"We've gone over it," Maurer said. "We've got plans for everybody. But the biggest thing is, I told our guys that it doesn't matter. At some point, you have to play them. You either play them now or play them later. When I came here, I told the administration we're not here to just win district championships. This is a start, and we've got games to win."

Northside Christian must get their best outings on the mound from USF commit Andreas Alvarez, Miami commit Ronald Causby, and Aiden Alvarez. Northside is hitting just .264 as a team while that trio is 13-4 on the mound with a combined ERA of 1.61. In their last five games at the plate, the Mustangs are 42-for-126 (.333) with 22 walks. Out-of-Door has FSW commit Luke Geske leading its rotation, who will likely have to be thrown against Canterbury should the Cougars get past the first round. That likely leaves Neumann and Northside Christian in a decent position to be playing in the Final Four later this month, as both have deep bullpens with plenty of innings. Whoever comes out alive between those two very well could be playing in a state semifinal.

Regional Champion: St. John Neumann

Regional Baseball Schedule

QUARTERFINALS

Tuesday: Class 2A-5A

Wednesday: Class 6A

SEMIFINALS

Friday: Class 2A-5A

Saturday, May 13: Class 6A

FINALS

Monday, May 15: Class 2A

Tuesday, May 16: Class 3A-6A

Follow Southwest Florida Sports Writer Alex Martin on Twitter: @NP_AlexMartin. For the best sports coverage in Southwest Florida, follow @newspresssports and @ndnprepzone on Instagram.

This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Baseball: Who's in, who's out, our picks for regional champs in SWFL