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Surprises, struggles and a special ATS team: How the NFL betting landscape has shifted early this season

mark drumheller
Betting analyst
·4 min read
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The NFL provided bettors with another wild, unpredictable ride this weekend. Week 6's marquee matchup in Kansas City was decided by, of all things, the defenses. The Bills' 24-20 win finished more than 10 points under the closing total, leaving anyone who bet on the over a little light in the pockets. However, the biggest surprise came from watching Mitchell Trubisky and Zach Wilson take down Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers as massive underdogs. The Steelers' +350 moneyline payout was the most profitable of the weekend's six upsets.

Each week provides bettors the challenge of balancing the weekly adjustments with fighting off the urge to overreact. Here are a few surprising takeaways from this past weekend's action.

Total surprises

Just as one would expect, Buffalo is an under team while overs have been hitting with Cleveland. The Jacoby Brissett-led Browns aren't the first to come to mind when you think of higher-scoring games, but maybe they should be. The Browns are 5-1 to the over, thanks to a defense that ranks 31st in EPA per play allowed. This week against Baltimore their total is 46.5 at BetMGM, almost four points higher than their average closing total this year (42.8). The only game that fell under the total for Cleveland this season had 46 combined points.

The Bills are on the opposite end of the spectrum as they are now 5-1 to the under. Josh Allen's high-powered offense has warranted an average closing total of 50.5, the second-highest in the NFL behind Kansas City. Buffalo has never made it easy for over bettors. Even their 41-7 destruction of Tennessee in Week 2 only hit by a half-point, as the game closed at 48.5. The Bills are on a bye this upcoming week, but it might be worth keeping an eye on their totals when they return.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen celebrates after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs on Oct. 16. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Full fade in Florida

If you have been betting on the Florida teams, it's been a bad month. After losing outright to a team that was crushed by the Bills, 38-3, Tampa Bay has turned into the league's model team for underperforming to market expectations. The Buccaneers are only 3-3 overall, but more importantly, they have been brutal to their backers. Tampa Bay is on an 0-4 ATS run that includes failing to cover as a 9.5 and 10-point favorite the last two weeks. Tampa will be another big favorite this weekend at Carolina, as the Bucs are currently favored by 10 points at BetMGM.

The gambling gods give it and then they take it away. Miami was scorching hot for bettors the first three weeks, but a slew of quarterback injuries have made Miami a miserable 0-3 ATS in Weeks 4-6. QB Tua Tagovailoa expects to return this week against Pittsburgh. It will be interesting to see if the market trusts Miami as a touchdown favorite.

Everybody's favorite dog

The Atlanta Falcons are the story of the season for bettors. They took money this weekend against San Francisco and delivered again with a 28-14 win as +155 underdogs. The Falcons are a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs in all six games. If you bet the Falcons at -110 odds in an open-ended parlay for the first six weeks, the value would be up to +4741. If you are the type of gambler who keeps riding a winner until they quit paying out, the Falcons are +6 in Cincinnati.

Week 7 bet: Chicago at New England -7.5

I am going back to the well with New England as it gets another favorable matchup at home. The Patriots came through for us with easy covers over Cleveland and Detroit the past two weeks, and I think they continue building on their recent run against Chicago. The Patriots' offense is peaking with the emergence of Bailey Zappe. The rookie completed 70% of his passes in an impressive 309-yard performance against the Browns.

In Zappe's two starts, the Patriots are the NFL's fifth-ranked offense in EPA/play and have outscored their opponents 67-15. It's unlikely the Bears defense can slow down New England's efficiency on offense, considering they rank 27th in success rate allowed.

On the other side of the ball, it's Bill Belichick versus Justin Fields. Belichick has historically made life hell for young quarterbacks, and I am betting he can force Fields into a few critical turnovers. The Patriots have proven they can pull away and win by wide margins, so I will lay the points here with New England.

*Stats provided by rbsdm, teamrankings.com