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Super Bowl 2024: How the 49ers and Chiefs have done against the spread and over/under so far this season

nick bromberg
College football and motorsports writer
·4 min read
13

You're not alone if you're a casual bettor looking to bet on the Super Bowl at BetMGM. After last season's Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles was the most-bet Super Bowl of all time, bettors are expected to wager millions of dollars on the Feb. 11 matchup between the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.

If you're one of those who doesn't consider yourself a sharp bettor — or just needs a refresher on how both teams did against the spread and the over/under throughout the 2023 season — here's a quick betting guide for you ahead of the game.

Super Bowl LVIII

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San Francisco 49ers

  • Record (including postseason): 14-5

  • Record against the spread (including postseason): 9-10

  • Regular-season record ATS: 9-8

  • Postseason record ATS: 0-2

  • Record ATS as a favorite: 9-10

  • Record ATS as an underdog: 0-0

  • Over/under record: 11 overs, 8 unders

Yes, you read that correctly above. The 49ers have been favored in every single game they’ve played this season and are on pace to continue that streak ahead of the Super Bowl unless the line moves significantly in the Chiefs’ direction.

The 49ers opened the season as one of the best teams in football against the spread. San Francisco started the season undefeated overall and 4-1 against the number as its only loss against the spread came in a seven-point win over the Los Angeles Rams when the spread was 7.5 points.

San Francisco cooled off as the season went on, however. The 49ers were favored in all three games during their three-game losing streak that dropped them to 5-3 before a 31-point win over the Jaguars as a three-point favorite.

The 49ers didn’t play many close games during the regular season. Just four of San Francisco’s games were decided by single digits as the 49ers lost three games by one score and won just one. That trend has stopped so far in the postseason as San Francisco hasn’t covered in its two postseason games as big favorites. The 49ers needed big comebacks to beat both the Packers and the Lions by three points each. San Francisco closed as a 10.5-point favorite against Green Bay and a 7.5-point favorite against the Lions.

BALTIMORE, MD - JANUARY 28: Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates with Patrick Mahomes #15 after the AFC Championship NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on January 28, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
Just six of 20 Kansas City Chiefs games have hit the over so far this season. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Record (including postseason): 14-6

  • Record against the spread (including postseason): 12-7-1

  • Regular-season record ATS: 9-7-1

  • Postseason record ATS: 3-0

  • Record ATS as a favorite: 9-7-1

  • Record ATS as an underdog: 3-0

  • Over/under record: 6 overs, 14 unders

As the 49ers finished with a losing record against the spread, the Chiefs have been the fourth-best team in the NFL against the number so far this season. It’s a stark turnaround from a team that hasn’t been very good against the spread in recent seasons.

A big reason for that ATS success is the Chiefs’ play in the postseason. Kansas City covered easily as a 4.5-point favorite at home against the Dolphins before winning outright as road underdogs against the Bills and the Ravens.

Overall, the Chiefs have covered in five consecutive games after a four-game stretch where they failed to cover as they went 0-3-1 ATS to start December. The push came in the Chiefs' only win in that four-game stretch as they beat the Patriots 27-17 as 10-point favorites.

The Chiefs’ record against the total is also remarkable for a playoff team. Just two teams — the Los Angeles Chargers and Carolina Panthers — hit a worse percentage of overs so far this season. Both losing teams were 5-12 against the over/under. If the Super Bowl goes under, the Chiefs will finish the season with the biggest percentage of unders of any NFL team over the course of the 2023 season.

That shouldn’t be much of a surprise; the Chiefs’ relative offensive struggles are well-known at this point and the team’s defense has been one of the best in the league. Entering Feb. 11, Kansas City is the only team in the league to not allow an opponent to score 30 points this season.