Stolen bases are back. How Vanderbilt's Enrique Bradfield Jr. could benefit in MLB Draft

The stolen base is back in Major League Baseball, just in time for Enrique Bradfield Jr.

Before 2023, the last player to steal 70 bases was Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009. There have been just 10 times in the past 10 seasons when a player even stole 50 bases, with the most recent being in 2017. Seven of those instances were by the same two players: Dee Strange-Gordon and Billy Hamilton.

But wanting to inject more action into the game, MLB recently changed the rules to re-incentivize the steal. Bigger bases and a limit on pickoff throws have brought stolen bases back. Now, two players − the A's Esteury Ruiz and the Braves' Ronald Acuña Jr. − are already over 40 steals just past the halfway point of the season.

Given those trends, there's a consensus that Bradfield, the Vanderbilt baseball star who holds the program record with 130 career stolen bases, could be eligible for the MLB Draft at just the right time.

Where Enrique Bradfield Jr. could be selected in 2023 MLB Draft

Bradfield has showed up all over the place in mock drafts, but the consensus is that he'll be drafted somewhere in the middle of the first round. Joe Doyle, an MLB Draft analyst for the Future Stars Series, and Brian Sakowski, a national crosschecker for scouting service Perfect Game, agreed that he would most likely be selected between picks 10 and 20.

Bradfield is still considered a polarizing prospect. In the first round, many teams prefer to chase upside, and Bradfield doesn't have the same kind of power potential as other mid-first round college hitters, capping the level of impact he's likely to have with the bat. But with his speed, defense and baserunning, he provides tools that no other player in the draft can − tools that give him a very high floor as a glove-first outfielder.

"There's definitely going to be some teams that follow a model that are going to be out on Bradfield," Doyle said. " ... But I think there are enough general managers and scouting directors in baseball that recognize and identify value as it comes in different ways. And I think because of that, Bradfield is, and especially with the rule changes, I think someone's going to take a chance on Bradfield earlier than a lot of us probably anticipate."

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How could new MLB rules help Enrique Bradfield Jr.?

In many ways, Bradfield's skill set is out of a different era of baseball. To many, he's reminiscent of Juan Pierre, another speedy leadoff hitter and center fielder who made his name by stealing bases.

But Bradfield has the potential to provide more unique value now than he would have five years ago. In the mid-2010s, with home runs dominating the game, teams became far more risk-averse on the bases. It took the rule changes to tilt the scales.

Just as stolen bases have come back in vogue, Bradfield became one of just two SEC players in the past 20 years to steal 40 bases in a season, and the only one to do it more than once.

"They changed the rules for 2023. It's like flipping a switch," Doyle said. " ... It totally changed the landscape of how some players are able to play. ... If you think you're an organization that wants to play aggressive and wants to put the game in motion, I think Bradfield provides fantastic value with what he can accomplish with his legs, and it's almost just a bonus that he will immediately be one of the most decorated defensive center fielders in the game the moment that he gets into a pro organization."

While baserunning has long been at the forefront of where Bradfield could provide value, outfield defense also has become more important in recent years. Many MLB organizations favor pitchers who throw riding fastballs that generate more fly balls, and MLB hitters often gear their swing towards hitting fly balls so as to get more home runs. While an elite center fielder (usually) can't prevent home runs, someone like Bradfield can take away doubles or triples at a much higher rate than others.

Because of that, Bradfield has frequently been mocked to teams that play in spacious ballparks, like the Diamondbacks, Rockies and Giants, where elite outfield defense is especially vital.

For that reason, many consider Bradfield to be one of the surest bets in the draft to provide some value at the major league level. While he is not likely a future MVP, players who bring his level of defense and baserunning value can stick around the majors for years − just look at Terrance Gore.

"I think the floor is probably an extra outfielder," Sakowski said. "Maybe he ends up, like worst-case scenario, he ends up not being offensive enough to play every day, but he's so valuable defensively and he's so valuable with his speed that like, that's a big leaguer. Those guys are on rosters every year. And then the pure upside (is) one of the best leadoff hitters in the game."

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: MLB Draft 2023: Enrique Bradfield Jr stolen bases are good timing