Stat This, Not That: Aaron Judge probably won't touch Ted Williams’ 84-game on-base streak, but we should learn that number

If Aaron Judge’s latest pursuit of history was less raucous than last season’s home run chase, let the record show that it was more history’s fault than Judge’s. Entering Thursday’s series against the Minnesota Twins, the New York Yankees superstar had reached base in 45 straight regular-season games.

It’s the 99th on-base streak to run that long since the live-ball era began in 1920, and it placed highly on the leaderboards of the 2000s before it ended in the Yankees' 11-2 blowout loss. The longest such streak this millennium belongs to shortstop Orlando Cabrera, who put together a 63-game run with the Los Angeles Angels in 2006, while the lengthiest of the past decade was Shin-Soo Choo’s 52-game streak with the Texas Rangers in 2018.

Judge’s streak, as you have probably surmised, came with the asterisk that it spanned seasons — and that it ignored postseason competition, during which he failed to reach base in several games. But before we start wringing our hands about “real records” and historical context, let me ask you this: Did you even know the number he was chasing?

Unlike Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, the on-base streak record hasn’t won an eternal foothold in the common baseball fan’s mind. It’s not hard to figure out why. In May 1999, the Yankees’ Derek Jeter was exactly where Judge sat Thursday. He had reached in 45 straight games, split between the 1998 and 1999 seasons, and the next day, The New York Times noted his feat with a headline that dubbed it "The Streak Without A Record.”

Seymour Siwoff, who oversaw the preeminent Elias Sports Bureau, told the paper that there simply was no record for consecutive games reaching base.

“You'd have to have a play-by-play of every major-league game going all the way back more than 100 years,” he said. “And nobody has that.”

Now, though, we do. Somewhere between 1999 and 2006 — most likely through the work of Herm Krabbenhoft and SABR, as far as I can tell — the record was firmly established.

In 1949, legendary Boston Red Sox slugger Ted Williams reached in 84 consecutive games from July 1 to Sept. 27, besting a 74-game streak DiMaggio compiled around his famous hitting streak and a separate 73-game streak Williams began in the summer of 1941 and concluded in 1942.

With walks and on-base percentage largely lacking the attention of the era’s sportswriters, Williams’ streaks weren’t noted at the time. In fact, in the midst of a famous pennant race, the streak ended in a key Red Sox loss, but Williams wasn’t even mentioned in the Times’ story about the game.

There was no daily coverage. There was no attention paid. There was no banner with 84 for him to slice through.

There was simply excellent hitting, a run of dominance that — despite its gravitas, or lack thereof — might just have more to say about greatness in the 2023 version of the game than DiMaggio’s hallowed mark.

Ted Williams’ on-base record ‘not the most glamorous of streaks’

Before Thursday night’s tilt against the Twins, I asked Judge if he was aware of his (admittedly fragmented) streak. While it had reached the MLB Network scroll, it wasn’t on Judge’s radar yet. I also asked if he was aware of the all-time record. Like most people in baseball — fans and players alike — he was not.

He thought it might be a Yankee. Nope. Asked if it was a National Leaguer. Also nope. Then, told the answer, he knew exactly the guess he should’ve made.

“I thought it might have been Ted Williams,” he said.

We were still a week away from Judge threatening even Choo’s 2018 streak, so gazing back at Williams was premature even before the streak fizzled. But Judge’s MVP-making blend of power and patience is exactly the type of skill set it takes to reach base this consistently. Sooner or later, his stature as a history-maker might draw eyes to Williams’ 84 that have never noticed it before.

Earlier this week, I posed the same trivia question to the New York Mets’ Brandon Nimmo. The leadoff man, whose .386 career on-base percentage ranks sixth among qualified active players, prioritizes reaching base just about as emphatically as any player in baseball. The 30-year-old outfielder has developed a bit of a trademark for sprinting gleefully to first each time he draws a walk. And he does that quite often. His well-trained eye is the biggest reason the Mets shelled out $162 million to keep him.

Clearly attuned to this aspect of his game, Nimmo ventured a guess that his longest on-base streak was perhaps 25 or 27 games. “It definitely wasn’t 50-something,” he said, correctly, but he was selling himself a touch short. His longest is 36.

“And what was Ted Williams’?” Nimmo asked.

Eighty-four.

“Oh, gosh,” he said.

Nimmo envisioned fanfare if someone managed to chase or eclipse Williams’ mark, but he also recognized the record’s uphill climb to true ubiquity.

“I mean, if someone breaks that, I think that'll be special,” he said. “You know, maybe not as special, but right up there with what Judge did last year.”

That line of thinking, if it’s shared by more than the most focused on-base aficionados, would mark a change from recent history. In 2016, Washington Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth tallied a 46-game on-base streak — which was very much noticed and noted — and then expressed relief when it ended.

“The problem with streaks sometimes is they tend to get bigger than the game. People start to talk about it — I’m just glad we can get back to baseball now,” Werth said, according to the Washington Post. “It was fun or whatever — you’re doing something to help your team on a daily basis. But like I said the other day, it’s not the most glamorous of streaks anyway, so I’m almost glad it’s over.”

Why on-base streaks are a better barometer in modern baseball

Judge, for his part, said hitting streaks are still the goal.

“I'm a hitter. You know, I want to hit,” he said. “Hit streaks, for me, are what really matter. Putting the ball in play, trying to get it past eight guys out there on defense trying to get you out? Man, it's tough to do.”

But he also acknowledged the reality of life in the majors in 2023. He hasn’t gotten the full Barry Bonds treatment, but pitchers are constantly strategizing on how to get through an at-bat against him with minimum damage. Sometimes, that means they avoid the strike zone altogether, creating moments when not swinging is actually the best thing he can do.

“I think in my case, you know, either getting pitched around or a lot of guys are trying to get you to chase stuff,” Judge said. “I don't mind a nice on-base streak — especially with the lineup we have.”

So are on-base streaks glamorous? No, admittedly not. More doable than a long hitting streak in 2023? Almost certainly.

“I would say the on-base streak is more attainable than the hitting,” Nimmo said, citing the proliferation of bat-missing stuff among major-league pitchers, often thrown at the expense of pinpoint control.

Hitters today are taught not just to spit on balls outside the zone but also to target the specific zones in which they stand the best chance of hitting the ball hard. That means taking fewer suboptimal swings — which in earlier years might’ve been encouraged and might’ve led to a ducksnort single or an off-balance liner the other way — and instead leaning into hard contact or working the count.

“You're starting to find some guys that have just incredible talent and just haven't quite honed in on the accuracy of it so far,” Nimmo said of pitchers in 2023. “So you have those guys as well that you can sometimes bet that they're going to throw four balls before they throw three strikes, right?”

It’s not nearly that easy, though. In 2003, the first year Sports Info Solutions logged pitch data, 53% of pitches were in the strike zone, 59.2% of those pitches were fastballs, and the average fastball was 89.9 mph. The league collectively batted .264/.333/.422.

Last season, only 41.3% of pitches landed in the strike zone, but hitters have had to improve by leaps and bounds just to remain in touch with pitching’s advancements. In 2022, they were facing an average fastball velocity of 93.7 mph and seeing those fastballs only 49.2% of the time. The league slash line in 2022 was a historically low .243/.312/.395.

Pitching staffs are aware that the numbers are stacked in their favor. If one hitter is particularly hot coming into a game, Nimmo noted, pitchers might intentionally avoid giving him anything to hit and take their chances with the next guy. Judge, like Bonds before him, is familiar with that approach.

But that’s no black mark on a hitter’s record. If anything, it’s another sign of his dominance. On-base percentage is accepted as a crucial element of modern hitting assessments. And while a walk isn’t exactly “just as good as a hit” by the calculations that underpin metrics such as WAR and wOBA, it’s pretty close.

A hitter remaining that dangerous — and that successful — for 50, 60 or, yes, 84 games would stand as a towering achievement. Williams, even in the absence of recognition for his streak, won his second MVP award in 1949 despite losing the batting crown. He finished with a .490 on-base percentage and 43 homers.

There is value in the persistent avoidance of outs. And baseball today is better than ever at noticing it.

“That's the thing with hitting — there's no guarantee that you're gonna get a pitch to get a hit with that day,” Nimmo said. “Whereas if you don’t, but you’re still doing well, you can get on base. You can walk.”

Stat this: On-base streak

How is it calculated? The number of consecutive games in which a player appeared and reached base via hit, walk or hit by pitch (but not via error)

Which players have the longest streaks? Williams has two of the top three — 84 games in 1949 and 73 games in 1941-42 — with DiMaggio sandwiched in between. The only other hitters to reach base in 60 straight games were Cabrera, Mark McGwire and Jim Thome. Judge’s 45-gamer was one of the 100 longest since 1920. Shohei Ohtani also has a 34-game on-base streak going.

Others to watch: Juan Soto owns the highest career on-base percentage among active players. Paul Goldschmidt, fourth on that list, ripped off a 46-game on-base streak just last year.

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This might matter: Speaking of streaks, Jordan Walker, the rookie St. Louis Cardinals outfielder, started his career with a 12-game hitting streak. But the real headline is that he reached the majors before his 21st birthday. Hitters who storm into the majors at his age aren’t all superstars, but they have a tremendous track record of maintaining strong careers.

That probably doesn’t: Walker’s actual streak? Less significant in the long run than his precocious debut. The list of players who began their MLB careers with hitting streaks has little to no correlation to long-term viability or greatness. David Dahl, the Padres outfielder who came up with the Rockies, has struggled to maintain health and performance but started his career with a 17-game run of hits that’s tied for the all-time record.

Have a question about stats in baseball? Email zach.crizer@yahoosports.com or tweet at @zcrizer.