Starting pitchers with surprisingly good fastballs

A good fastball is crucial to having success as an MLB pitcher. It allows a pitcher to get ahead in the count, puts the hitter on their heels, and sets up the rest of a pitcher's arsenal. It can also be a swing-and-miss pitch in its own right. Of the top 20 pitchers heading into the season, according to ATC projections, 15 of them have a primary fastball that grades out as a plus pitch by either Eno Sarris' Pitching+ or Pitcher Lists' Pitch Level Value (PLV) metrics.

Often, when we analyze starting pitchers, we look for who might be able to succeed without a great fastball to find value in a player who might be written off; however, today I want to look at some pitchers who have fastballs that may surprise you in terms of how good they are. Often these are pitchers without the velocity or Induced Vertical Break (iVB) to grade out well on most metrics; however, their overall shape, command, or usage may cause the pitch to consistently perform better than expected.

I took three stats I like the most for pitch-specific data (Pitching+, PLV, and Statcast's Run Value) and made a leaderboard. Then, I looked at pitchers whose primary fastball graded above average by at least two of those metrics. I'll list both the surprising pitchers and the more obvious ones below so you have all the information on who has a good fastball, but I'll only dig in deeper on the pitches that might surprise us.

First, let's also see who just missed being included on the list because they only graded well in one of the three metrics or graded really poorly in one of them.

Pitchers Who Just Missed

Except for Logan Allen, Reese Olson, Gavin Williams, Brandon Pfaadt, and Lance Lynn all of these pitchers had above-average fastballs in at least two metrics. Grayson Rodriguez also had a much better fastball performance after he came back from the minors, so these season-long numbers are likely not an accurate reflection of his true fastball quality; however, he has also struggled with the fastball this spring. Maybe it's something to watch for.

MacKenzie Gore came into spring training with added velocity and more Induced Vertical Break (iVB) on his fastball, which means it has more "rise" or, in reality, is sinking less than the average fastball as it approaches the plate. That could allow his fastball to perform better this year, especially since he's using it up in the zone more as well. Since it already graded out above average in Pitching+ and PLV, he could work his way onto the good list.

Non-Surprising Fastballs

Below is the leaderboard with the pitchers who we expect to have good fastballs, so there's not much to say about these guys but it's good to have a reminder of who they are.

Surprising Fastballs

Here is the leaderboard for the pitchers who we may be surprised to find have good fastballs. I'll break down a few of the more interesting names below.

Louie Varland - Minnesota Twins
Eno Sarris' Pitching+ model has Varland's fastball as the second-best of the starters on this list, and Pitcher List's PLV metric says he's tied for the best. I like using Pitching+ because it's not just a weighted average of Stuff+ and Location+ across a pitcher’s arsenal, but is a third model that uses the physical characteristics, location, and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher’s process. To me, that's a nice way to see not just the shape or velocity of the pitch but all of the aspects that could make it successful.

Now, we need to note the caveat that Varland spent a good deal of time in the bullpen last year, so a lot of his data will be skewed by him not having to use his fastball over five or more innings. Still, it's the data we have, so it's the data we'll discuss.

Varland's fastball is just above average in some of the baseline shape/velocity metrics we like. He averaged 95.3 mph last year with 6.9 feet of extension, anything at 7 feet or more is pretty elite. He also had an average of 15.2 inches of iVB. Anything over 15 inches is what we like to see, so Varland checks that box here. He also pounded the zone with a 60% zone rate but had a 47.5% high location (hiLoc%), which was below the league average on four-seamers of 51.8%.

Yet, Varland was elite at getting ahead with the four-seamer, posting a 66% true first strike percentage (TF-Str%) which takes swings and called strikes and divides them by balls in play, leaving us only with the strikes that did not lead to balls in play. Considering Varland also had a 21% PutAway rate on the pitch (measuring how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout), the pitch is a versatile weapon he can use in almost any count.

Yes, Varland's four-seamer could be better if he were to get it up in the zone more; however, he has good velocity, extension, and "vert" on the four-seamer, which should give us confidence that it can be a solid offering. Which it was in 2023. By the metrics used above, his four-seamer was similar in performance to the ones thrown by Bryce Miller and Tyler Glasnow. Not bad.

Varland threw his four-seamer 42.4% of the time and registered a 12.3% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and 33.7% CSW. He did allow a below-average 40% Ideal Contact Rate or ICR (Barrells + Solid Contact + Flares/Burners divided by batted ball events), but that could be connected to not getting the pitch up in the zone as much as we'd like to see. However, overall, the pitch gives him a tremendous foundation while the rest of the arsenal includes a plus cutter that gets swings-and-misses, a solid slider, and a change-up that needs some work. If he can find himself a starting rotation spot, he could be a solid fantasy asset but I'd love to see a solid third pitch to lefties.

Bowden Francis - Toronto Blue Jays
Much like Varland, Bowden Francis was dynamite for the Blue Jays out of the bullpen last year, but he was stretched out to be a starter coming into spring training since that's what he was as a prospect. It seemed like he wouldn't get a shot at a rotation spot but then Kevin Gausman started dealing with a shoulder injury and Alek Manoah promptly looked terrible in his first start and is now dealing with a “cranky shoulder” himself. That should mean a spot for Bowden Francis.

Last season, Francis' fastball averaged 94.4 mph with 6.8 feet of extension, and an average of 17 inches of iVB, which is elite. He threw the pitch up in the zone 48.6% of the time, which is better than Varland but could still have some room for improvement, and that might be why he allowed a 41.4% ICR on the pitch. He also posted just a 9.7% SwStr% and 25.9% CSW, so the pitch graded out well but was mediocre when it came to swings and misses despite having a 6 Run Value in Statcast.

This is where we can dig in and see why the numbers are like that. It turns out, Francis threw his fastball in two-strike counts over 35% of the time last year and got swings out of the zone on 25% of those pitches. Both marks are above average. Considering we know he has elite vertical movement, it's clear that Francis understands how to get his fastball up and out of the zone for swings and misses when he's ahead in the count. That's likely also helped by the fact that he boasts a curveball with a 15% SwStr% that many hitters are expecting with two strikes. That's smart pitching and utilizing the strengths of his four-seamer to his advantage.

Francis has entered spring training with a bit of a different look to the four-seam as well. Through three appearances he's averaging 95.5 mph on his fastball, up over one mph from last year, and has added over an inch of iVB to over 18 inches. That would give him above-average velocity, extension, and vertical movement on a pitch that already graded well last year. Considering Francis’ bread-and-butter pitch is an elite curveball, pairing that with a plus four-seam would give him an even safer floor. It's unclear yet if he has the depth of the arsenal to stick as a starter, but having this two-pitch mix at least makes him worthy of a late-round dart throw to see if the slider or change-up can improve,

Kutter Crawford - Boston Red Sox
Crawford is the poster boy for this article because of his elite iVB on his fastball, a pitch that graded out among the best fastballs of any starter in baseball last year.

He doesn't have elite velocity on the pitch, throwing it 93.6 mph with 6.2 feet of extension, but he had an average of 18.4 inches of iVB in 2024. He also lives up in the zone with a 60% hiLoc%, which makes the pitch incredibly hard to make solid contact on. Last season, Crawford had a 14% SwStr% and 30.6% CSW on the pitch with an above-average 38.6% ICR. Also, like Francis, Crawford shows elite usage of the pitch with two strikes, going to it 36% of the time in those counts and posting a near 30% chase rate and a 25% putaway rate, both of which are upper-echelon totals when compared to the MLB average.

Another reason the four-seamer performs so well for Crawford, which is the fourth-best Run Value on this list, is that he has a deep enough arsenal that he only needs to use the pitch 39% of the time. Last season, Crawford threw six different pitches, and five of them graded out as above-average offerings based on Pitcher List’s PLV metrics. He’s been showcasing his whole arsenal this offseason and pumping strikes with basically everything, but most important has been that the iVB on his fastball appears to be pushing 20 inches based on some analysts' manual calculations from Statcast data. Given how often he lives up in the zone with his four-seamer, Crawford gives himself an incredibly safe floor to build off of.

He pitches in a disadvantageous home park, so there might be outings where the fastball isn't as up in the zone as he'd like and he gives up a few home runs, but I think that, overall, he has the foundation of a solid fantasy starter and remains a strong value at his current ADP.

Bryan Woo - Mariners
What we know about Bryan Woo is that he struggles against lefties because it might be one of the only things people say about him. However, we also know that he has an elite four-seam fastball.

Woo throws the pitch 95.1 mph with 6.8 feet of extension, and below-average 13.8 inches of iVB. However, he consistently keeps it up in the zone with a 51.4% hiLoc%, which helped lead to a 16.3% SwStr% and a 31.7% CSW. Additionally, he limits hard contact with just a 34% ICR, which is one of the best marks of any pitcher on this list. The lack of iVB hurts the grade on the pitch a bit, but since he gets good extension and good vertical approach and lives up in the zone, the pitch performs well, which is why it had a Run Vale of 7, one of the best Pitching+ marks on this leaderboard, and a PutAway rate over 24%.

Woo also throws a solid slider, which he uses primarily to righties, but the four-seamer is a pitch he uses nearly 50% of the time, so everything works off of that. Considering his other pitch is a sinker, something to lefties is crucial for his success as lefties hit over .100 points higher off him, struck out over 10% less, and made way more hard contact. That's why Woo started throwing a cutter at the end of June. According to Pitcher List metrics, Woo used the cutter inside to lefties over 50% of the time, but, perhaps weirdly, threw it low 70.5% of the time, which is in the 98th percentile. You would believe a pitch designed to mitigate hard contact from lefties would be thrown more in on the hands, and that’s perhaps why the pitch itself allowed a 50% ICR. I love that Woo has this four-seamer as a foundation for success, but I need to see that cutter have success against lefties before I buy in for 2024. However, if we do see that cutter start to get used more and more often in on the hands, you should run to get shares of Woo.

Seth Lugo - Kansas City Royals
Seth Lugo is just an underrated pitcher altogether. However, his four-seamer graded out as a plus pitch by all three of these metrics despite averaging just 93.4 mph. So why is that the case?

He throws it with just 6.1 feet of extension, but he does have 16.4 inches of iVB and keeps it up in the zone over 48% of the time. He also uses it 34.4% of the time in two-strike counts and has a 23.5% PutAway rate. That may not seem like a lot, but, for comparison's sake, Spencer Strider uses his four-seamer in two-strike counts 30.4% of the time and has a 22.3% PutAway rate, so, somehow, Lugo uses his four-seamer more and has a better PutAway rate than Strider. Just sit with that for a second.

Now, much of that comes down to command. Lugo has a 71% strike rate on the four-seamer and gets an elite 22% called strikes with it. That's not because the pitch itself is elite. I mean, it gives up a 50% ICR. It's that Lugo throws five pitches often and will mix in a sixth, so he sequences his pitches well enough to keep hitters off-balance. When he elevates the four-seamer in two-strike counts, he either catches hitters off guard and freezes them or gets them to swing through it because they're expecting off-speed or maybe his sinker.

This is why I love this list. It's important to understand that a pitch doesn't have to be good on its own. A pitch can be good because of how it's used and when it's used. Lugo's four-seamer is one of those pitches, and when you combine that with the fact that he split his breaking ball into two with clear differentiations between the slider and curve and then started to morph his slider into more of a sweeper, we're beginning to see a veteran arm who is evolving to thrive in his new role. Lugo won't wow you, but he has a solid foundation of pitches that will make him a great pick in 15-team leagues and deeper this year.

Dean Kremer - Baltimore Orioles
Dean Kremer is perhaps the most overlooked member of the Orioles' rotation, but he's an intriguing fantasy starter in his own right. The reason for that is the changes he made to his four-seam in the middle of the season that helped him get on this list.

For starters, Kremer kept his four-seam up in the zone with a 55.2% hiLoc% on the season but clear gains in the second half last year. Additionally, he posted a 17.6 iVB in the second half, compared to a 16.2 mark in the first half. That led to considerably less hard contact allowed, even though it also led to a small drop in SwStr%, which feels odd. Kremer's fastball is 94.6 mph with 6.3 feet of extension, which is not bad when combined with an iVB above 17. The pitch had poor contact metrics for the entire season, but the improvement in the second half was clear. In 74.2 second-half innings, he posted a 3.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 20.5% strikeout rate, compared to a 4.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 22% strikeout rate in 98 first-half innings.

Kremer, in general, doesn't have an arsenal that will miss a lot of bats, but his four-seamer was tied for second on this list in Run Value even without that. If the gains in the four-seamer hold, he'll command a five-pitch arsenal of at least average to slightly above-average pitches while pitching in a pitcher's park for one of the best teams in the AL. If he also flashes the sweeper that he used a bit in 2023, he could be a mainstay in deep-league rotations.

Matt Manning - Detroit Tigers
I covered Matt Manning in my recent Post-Hype Pitchers article, which you should check out, but he's come into spring training with a small increase in iVB and more velocity on his fastball. Considering it graded out as a solid pitch without that in 2023, any improvement on it, when paired with his plus slider, could make Manning a solid sleeper in 2024.

JP Sears - Oakland Athletics
In many ways, JP Sears could be the face of this article. No, his pitch may not grade out the best of the other four-seamers mentioned, but the fact that he's even on the list could be the biggest surprise to people.

In 2023, Sears' four-seam averaged 93.1 mph with 6.6 feet of extension, and 13.8 inches of iVB. While that's not great "vert," Sears is a lefty, so he has an elite 11.6 inches of arm-side break on his fastball. What's wild about that is that the four-seamer is worse against lefties with a 43.4% ICR, a .369 batting average against, and a 9.5% SwStr%. Perhaps he's afraid of that arm-side run because he throws it inside to lefties at a below-average rate, leaving almost 50% of his four-seamers away to lefties. Yet, against righties, he has no problem burying it inside at a 39% mark, which is way above league average. He also has a 52% hiLoc% that's above average. As a result, the pitch has a .228 batting average against righties with a better SwStr% and ICR than when he tosses it to lefties.

That's certainly not perfect, but he faces far more righties than lefties, so we don't mind that the four-seamer is better against them. It also suggests that a better approach, where he gets the ball inside more to lefties, could allow him to see even more growth. Sears also got extremely unlucky with a +13 Hit Luck on the pitch in 2023, which means he gave up 13 more hits against his four-seamer than he should have based on approach and batted ball quality.

We also love to see that Sears uses the fastball 34% of the time in two-strike counts and gets a chase out of the zone on 25% of those pitches. His PutAway rate is only slightly above league average on the two-strike fastballs, most likely because the velocity isn't elite, but he's getting hitters to chase it out of the zone, which leads to poor contact and few hits. He also has a sweeper that is solid to hitters of both-handedness, a harder slider that eats up lefties, and a change-up that he exclusively uses to righties, so the foundation of the arsenal is there.

This is not a situation where you're seeing a future ace; however, Sears having a solid fastball allows him to set up that sweeper, which is his best pitch. That gives him a solid foundation, even if the change-up never improves. That means, as a floor, Sears should be a low-4.00 ERA arm with an improving strikeout rate and solid walk rates that will keep the WHIP from being egregious. That has real deep league value even without accounting for growth. If the change-up improves too, you could be looking at somebody who can be rostered in all leagues.