Spread Options: College football Week 7 picks against the spread

We've got another fun collection of games ahead in Week 7 of the college football season.

Things got crazy last week with some dramatic finishes and wacky coaching decisions. Luckily, my plays were not involved in any of that madness. I went 4-2 and it was my third consecutive winning week. I'm 13-6 over the last three weeks and up to 22-17 on the year.

After a few ugly weeks earlier this season, I feel like I'm seeing the board clearly. Let's keep it rolling.

Last week: 4-2

Overall: 22-17

Tulane at Memphis

Time: 7 p.m. ET (Fri.) | TV: ESPN | Line: Tulane -4.5 | Total: 54.5

Memphis is a team I’ve tried to selectively fade over the past few seasons. For some reason, the Tigers seem to get overvalued but they are just 14-24-1 ATS in regular season games since Ryan Silverfield became head coach.

In its last three games, Memphis narrowly avoided being upset at home by Navy, lost to Missouri by seven and then beat Boise State by three. The latter two are not impressive results. The Missouri game was not as close as the final score makes it seem, and Boise State is just not a very good team this season. This week’s opponent, Tulane, is much stronger.

Tulane is stout up front and QB Michael Pratt is now much healthier after an early season ankle injury. I like the Green Wave quite a bit here. Tulane has played much tougher competition to this point in the season.

Pick: Tulane -4.5

Michigan State at Rutgers

Time: Noon ET | TV: BTN | Line: RU -5.5 | Total: 39.5

Let’s find some value in a gross Big Ten game in the noon window, shall we?

Michigan State has had a tumultuous season and dropped both of its conference games since the downfall of Mel Tucker. But when MSU lost 31-9 to Maryland, the Spartans actually outgained the Terrapins. MSU outgained Iowa, too, but blew a late lead on the road with the Hawkeyes taking the lead with a 70-yard punt return TD in the final minutes.

Coming off a bye week, this feels like a good time to play on the Spartans as they head on the road to Rutgers. RU is 4-2 and has a solid defense, but the Scarlet Knights lean on the running game on offense. MSU’s strength is its defensive line, so that should make things tough for Rutgers QB Gavin Wimsatt, who is completing only 51.8% of his attempts and averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt.

As long as the Spartans limit the turnovers (a potential QB change should help that), I think they can win this game.

Pick: Michigan State +5.5

Texas A&M at No. 19 Tennessee

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Line: UT -3 | Total: 54.5

These are two pretty evenly matched teams from a talent perspective, but I don’t like the spot for Texas A&M at all. On the heels of a tough loss to Alabama, Texas A&M will play its first true road game since it got blasted by Miami on Sept. 9. Since then, the Aggies played three home games and a neutral site game vs. Arkansas in Arlington, a short trip from College Station.

I don’t like the matchup for the Aggies either with Tennessee coming off a bye. I’m not a huge believer in Joe Milton, but Tennessee is getting healthier on the offensive line and quietly has been excellent on the ground this season. If Tennessee can run the ball, Milton should be able to connect on a deep ball or two against an A&M secondary that has been beaten over the top quite a bit this season.

I also think the Vols can get some serious pressure on Texas A&M QB Max Johnson. A&M’s pass protection has been spotty, as has its rushing attack. Johnson holds the ball too long and is a turnover machine. Tennessee is 10-4 ATS as a home favorite under Josh Heupel, and I think UT gets it done.

Pick: Tennessee -3

No. 14 Louisville at Pittsburgh

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET | TV: CW | Line: UL -7.5 | Total: 44.5

Louisville is undefeated and coming off a massive win over Notre Dame, but is only a 7.5-point favorite over a one-win Pitt team. That should tell you something. It’s an obvious letdown spot for Louisville, a team that took advantage of an exhausted Notre Dame team last week.

I still have some doubts about the Cardinals. The defense is aggressive and Jeff Brohm is one of the best play-calling head coaches in the country, but Jack Plummer can be a liability at quarterback. He just is not consistently accurate and makes some really bad decisions.

Speaking of quarterback, Pitt has finally benched Phil Jurkovec after a miserable start to the season. Christian Veilleux, a transfer from Penn State, worked with the ones during the bye week and will now make his first career start. With the way Jurkovec was playing, it would be hard for Veilleux to not be an upgrade at the position. It’s gross, but I’ve got to take the Panthers here.

Pick: Pitt +7.5

No. 15 Miami at No. 12 North Carolina

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TV: ABC | Line: UNC -3.5 | Total: 57.5

How will Miami respond after losing to Georgia Tech in such horrific fashion? Even before the disastrous ending, Miami played a sloppy game on offense as Tyler Van Dyke threw three interceptions.

Van Dyke had thrown only one interception before last week, and facing the North Carolina defense could be the perfect medicine for a bounce-back performance from the Miami offense. The Tar Heels are definitely better defensively than they were in 2022, but Miami is the best offense UNC has faced this season by a considerable margin.

And with Drake Maye and his array of weapons on the UNC side, I’m expecting points in this game. I think both teams can score in the 30s, so this could fly over the total.

Pick: Over 57.5

No. 18 UCLA at No. 15 Oregon State

Time: 8 p.m. ET | TV: Fox | Line: OSU -3.5 | Total: 54.5

UCLA was dominant on defense last week in a win over Washington State and will have another challenge with this weekend’s trip to Corvallis to face Oregon State. Washington State is more reliant on the passing game, while the Beavers favor the ground attack. That could actually be better for the Bruins, who are loaded in the front seven but have a few holes in the secondary.

At the same time, Reser Stadium is one of the more underrated environments in the country and represents another challenge for Dante Moore, UCLA’s freshman quarterback. Moore has shown flashes of why he was considered a five-star recruit, but he’s also been prone to turnovers. UCLA tries to give him easy throws off play-action. For that to work, the running game with Carson Steele and TJ Harden needs to get going.

Oregon State turned in a really poor effort on defense last week in a road win over Cal. I expect a more buttoned-up performance from the defense. That’ll ultimately lead to a low-scoring game.

Pick: Under 54.5