Southwest Missouri high school football predictions: How we picked Week 5's tricky games
My inability to bet against Lamar cost me last week but I still ended up with a 24-5 record which puts me at 93-15 (86.1%) this season. Week 5 might have been the toughest one for me to pick this year.
Here's what I have happening.
Nixa @ Joplin
This Central Ozark Conference showdown lost a bit of its luster with Joplin's loss to Webb City last week. The Cardinals' win put Nixa alone atop the COC as the lone undefeated team in the league. Joplin is now in must-win mode as two losses with Nixa being unbeaten would likely knock it out of championship contention.
Plenty of intrigue should follow as a close eye should be on Joplin's injury situation. It got back starting quarterback Hobbs Gooch and offensive tackle Dontrell Holt last week but remained without star running back Quin Renfro. He's a difference-maker.
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Nixa's been consistently good and turned in its best performance last week in a 41-3 thumping of Branson. The Eagles got great quarterback play after not completing a pass the week before and continue to have a solid rushing attack. With the defense playing at that high of a level, the Eagles should be favored in the remainder of their games until a potential postseason rematch with Lee's Summit North. Nixa 31, Joplin 20
Mount Vernon @ Nevada
Nevada sent a statement to the area with its beatdown of McDonald County last week. Most eyes in the Big 8 West were on Seneca and Lamar but Nevada made sure you don't forget about it in this title race.
The Tigers will host Mount Vernon which appears to be one of two teams that will have a shot at the Big 8 East at the end of the year along with Reeds Spring. The Mountaineers are banged up at the skill positions but have a solid quarterback leading the way and Braden Dodson has proven himself to be one of the better two-way players in the area.
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It's hard to find flaws with Nevada, however. There were some questions about running back after losing an elite ball-carrier to graduation but Jack Cheaney has emerged as an elite player himself. Colorado offensive line commit Talan Chandler also continues to be someone who should be considered one of the best players in the area if he's not the best. Nevada 42, Mount Vernon 31
Ozark Conference
Glendale @ Bolivar — The Falcons' defense has been impressive over the last three weeks while allowing 21 points or fewer in each. Bolivar is looking to bounce back after its blowout loss to Lebanon. Bolivar 31, Glendale 24
West Plains @ Camdenton — If someone is going to challenge Lebanon down the stretch, it's going to be one of these two teams. Both keep getting better by the week and both remain in the upper echelon of OC programs. Camdenton 37, West Plains 34
Parkview @ Kickapoo — The Chiefs rebounded from their 34-0 loss by coming out with a 21-8 win over Waynesville despite some turnover problems. Look for them to play a cleaner game. Kickapoo 34, Parkview 14
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Hillcrest @ Rolla — The Bulldogs have had one of the tougher early-season schedules in the OC. They're better than what their record is. Rolla 24, Hillcrest 20
Lebanon @ Waynesville — The Lebanon kids weren't happy that I picked the Jackets to win last week in a close game. They ended up blowing out Bolivar and then called me out. Is this one good enough for you? Lebanon 44, Waynesville 17
Central Ozark Conference
Branson @ Carl Junction — The Bulldogs have shown improvement over the last two weeks after starting the season with consecutive 19-plus-point losses. Carl Junction 33, Branson 26
Nixa @ Joplin — See above.
Carthage @ Neosho — The Tigers finally got a win after a pretty brutal three-game stretch to start the year. There's still reason to believe Carthage could end up with a winning record despite the 0-3 start. Carthage 42, Neosho 33
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Willard @ Republic — Willard hasn't played the most difficult of schedules and it has an opportunity to show that its 3-1 start is no fluke against one of the better teams in the COC. Republic played much better last week after a rough outing against Webb City. Republic 34, Willard 30
Ozark @ Webb City — The Cardinals have gotten better and better each week this season and they appear to be one of the better teams in the Ozarks, no matter who's healthy. Webb City 35, Ozark 21
Big 8 West
Lamar @ East Newton — The Tigers haven't lost two in a row since 2019. Before that, they hadn't lost two in a row since Barack Obama's first term in office. It's not happening this week. Lamar 52, East Newton 20
Cassville @ McDonald County — The Mustangs ran into a Nevada team that has made it known that it's one of the area's best. The Mustangs are sure to bounce back, but it won't be easy. McDonald County 24, Cassville 20
Monett @ Seneca — Seneca has the best team in the Ozarks right now. We're anxiously awaiting its Week 9 matchup at Nevada. Seneca 47, Monett 13
Big 8 East
Aurora @ Hollister — Both teams have had early-season struggles on both sides of the ball. The Houn Dawgs just got a taste of winning last week and should carry a bit of momentum into Week 5. Aurora 24, Hollister 21
Reeds Spring @ Marshfield — The Wolves' defense has taken steps in back-to-back weeks after allowing 42 to Nevada. They'll need this before a tough game at Seneca next week. Reeds Spring 45, Marshfield 24
Logan-Rogersville @ Catholic — The Wildcats took a hit at quarterback and it will be interesting to see how they respond with an offense that ran only out of the wildcat in a loss to Mount Vernon. Whether they switch things up this week against a struggling Catholic will be something to watch. Logan-Rogersville 24, Catholic 10
Big 8 crossover
Mount Vernon @ Nevada — See above.
Mid-Lakes Conference
Forsyth @ Skyline — The Panthers ran into a hot Fair Grove squad last week but should bounce back and remain in the Mid-Lakes conversation by grabbing a conference win. Forsyth 42, Skyline 27
South Central Association
Salem @ Ava — The Bears have been awesome this year and are back to the team they've been for the last few years. Ava 42, Salem 17
Willow Springs @ Mountain View — The Eagles took a hit last week against Ava but should be able to top a struggling Willow Springs. Mountain View 24, Willow Springs 12
Cabool @ Mountain Grove — The Bulldogs lost by one to Houston in a matchup between two of the SCA's best while the Panthers haven't played that well against the best teams on their schedule. Cabool 34, Mountain Grove 21
Houston @ Thayer — The Tigers have made it known that they're a challenger in the SCA and will need to get this win before hosting Ava next week. Houston 34, Thayer 24
Southwest Conference
Miller @ Ash Grove — The Pirates shut out Pierce City in response to being shut out by Stockton. The Pirates are better than what they showed two weeks ago. Ash Grove 27, Miller 12
Diamond @ Marionville — The Comets blew out a Class 5 program in Central last week and have only allowed 20 points through four games. Diamond has been solid on both sides of the ball in recent weeks but Marionville is a different animal. Marionville 42, Diamond 14
Others
Fair Grove @ Stockton — This is one of the more interesting games in the area with how good Stockton has looked in the Southwest Conference and then how dominant Fair Grove has been early on. The money here will be on Kellen Lair to score more touchdowns. Fair Grove 43, Stockton 37
Central @ Strafford — There should be interest here to see how Fair Grove compares to Strafford after Central played the two in back-to-back weeks. Strafford appears to be the one team that can challenge Fair Grove for the Mid-Lakes title this season. Strafford 34, Central 27
Butler @ El Dorado Springs — Butler's too far out of our area for us to pick the game.
Clever @ Pierce City — Neither team has had much success early this year but it could be an opportunity for Clever to get its first win since it beat the now-defunct Agape school to conclude the 2021 regular season. Pierce City has been a tiny bit more consistent on both sides of the ball. Pierce City 23, Clever 20
Lafayette (St. Joseph) @ Sarcoxie — We're not picking a game that includes a St. Joseph school.
Wyatt D. Wheeler is a reporter and columnist with the Springfield News-Leader. You can contact him at 417-371-6987, by email at wwheeler@news-leader.com or X at @WyattWheeler_NL. He's also the host of the weekly "Wyatt's World Podcast" on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.
This article originally appeared on Springfield News-Leader: Springfield area Week 5 high school football predictions
