Southern Miss football vs. Troy: Score prediction, scouting report in season finale
HATTIESBURG – Southern Miss football will play its final game of the 2023 season on Saturday (11 a.m., ESPNU).
Its opponent, however, is not. Troy (9-2, 6-1 Sun Belt Conference) has already clinched a spot in the Sun Belt Championship game next week after winning the West Division. The Trojans will be playing for bowl positioning this week.
As for Southern Miss (3-8, 2-5), it hopes to play spoiler, but also build momentum into the offseason. A win over one of the top Group of Five teams would do that.
Troy fields an elite defense
Troy’s success in 2023 comes on both sides of the ball, but the defense is the anchor.
The Trojans allow just 16.6 points per game, which is ninth-best in the nation. They are even better in conference play, with no team scoring more than 24 points and two others – Georgia State and Arkansas State – both being held to single digits.
“They play like their hair's on fire and they play very sound,” Southern Miss coach Will Hall said. “They tackle well, they leverage the ball, they keep it in front of them and they make you snap it again.”
Defensive end Javon Solomon is tied for third in the country with 13 sacks. Bandit Richard Jibunor is also tied for 13th with nine sacks. Only two players have rushed for over 100 yards in a game against Troy, and the same is true for receivers eclipsing 100 receiving yards. The Trojans are also ninth in the country in third-down defense.
“I think it’s the two best D-lines in the league going against each other this week,” Hall said.
Ethan Crawford expected to be available
Freshman quarterback Ethan Crawford made his first career start last week at Mississippi State, but had it cut short when he injured his elbow in the second quarter.
Crawford was wearing a sling on his right arm after the game and wasn’t sure at the time if he’d be able to play this week. Hall said on Monday that they expect him to be available. He wouldn't say on Tuesday whether or not Crawford would start, but did reassure that he will play if healthy enough.
"We're evaluating that," Hall said. "As long as he's healthy though, he's gonna play."
Crawford completed 2 of his 4 pass attempts for 52 yards and a touchdown against Mississippi State. He also ran seven times for -2 yards.
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The Southern Miss defense played better than the 41 points allowed against Mississippi State.
One of those touchdowns was a late Billy Wiles’ interception returned for a touchdown, and there were two other instances where the offense and special teams gave Mississippi State great field position. But the Golden Eagles held the Bulldogs to two field goals when given a short field, and that helped keep them in the game in the fourth quarter.
Cornerback M.J. Daniels is one player in particular who’s play has drastically improved since the start of the season. He’s one of the few at the position that’s been able to stay healthy and, according to Pro Football Focus, has played three of his best four games over the last three weeks.
"He's playing at a high, high level right now," Hall said.
The Southern Miss defense also faces a stout Troy offense that averages 29.2 points per game.
It’s led by quarterback Gunnar Watson, who has thrown at least three touchdowns in four consecutive games. He also hasn’t thrown an interception since Sept. 30.
Southern Miss score prediction vs. Troy
Troy 30, Southern Miss 13: This is a very good Troy team. Southern Miss has improved a lot over the last month, but it’s not ready to compete with the top of the Sun Belt yet. Maybe next year, but I expect Troy to take care of business.
Sam Sklar is the Southern Miss beat reporter for the Hattiesburg American. Email him at ssklar@hattiesb.gannett.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.
This article originally appeared on Hattiesburg American: Southern Miss football score prediction, scouting report vs Troy
