Sorry, Rays fans, but the best you can hope for now is 161-1
ST. PETERSBURG — First, the good news: The Rays have 161 games to fix this.
And now the pessimistic view: I’m not sure that’s enough time.
We kid, of course. The 2024 season is only 0.6% completed in Tampa Bay, which means you shouldn’t consider panicking until Yandy Diaz’s batting average falls below .500. After that, all bets are off.
Yes, the 8-2 loss to Toronto on Thursday afternoon was particularly noxious. Especially when you consider the last time the Rays had a losing record in the regular season was 710 days ago.
But if you ignore the 17,000 or so empty seats in the forbidden upper deck at Tropicana Field, it was a festive sellout crowd of 25,025. The Rays had a lead for the first few innings, and reigning American League leader in wins Zach Eflin had retired 17 of the first 19 hitters he faced.
Unfortunately, the final four innings looked like the Rays were pondering the postgame buffet table. Toronto scored five times in the sixth inning, which is as many runs as Rays pitchers gave up in their first 36 innings of 2023.
“We weren’t going to win 162 games, and we’re not going to lose 162 games,” said second baseman Brandon Lowe. “To go out and think we’re going to win every single ballgame we’re a part of is unrealistic. Let’s take (Thursday) for what it was: opening day, baseball is back, and we’re all excited to be here.
“But there’s no sense kicking us ... right now when we’ve got 161 more games to play. There’s the saying about not getting too high or too low, and this is one of those points to not get too low. There’s no reason to right now. Extremely early.”
If you’re selling hope — and that’s what opening day is really about — you don’t like to see your bullpen walk six hitters in 3⅓ innings. It’s also better if your hitters don’t start the season 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position. And if we’re being really picky, the 3-4-5 hitters went 0-for-12 and managed to hit only one ball out of the infield.
More than anything else, this game leaned into all of your greatest fears about 2024.
For instance, what are the odds that Eflin can duplicate his 2023 season, when he went 16-8 and threw a career-high 177⅔ innings? And will the Rays struggle against right-handed pitching with Luke Raley traded to Seattle and Wander Franco firing lawyers in the Dominican Republic? And are the metrics right when they say Isaac Paredes does not have the kind of exit velocity you expect from a guy fresh off a 30-homer season?
This is what five months of anxiously awaiting a season can do to a fan. It makes you too optimistic before the first pitch and too morose after the first loss.
The reality is this team has enough talent to reach the postseason for the sixth consecutive season, but the roster is not as imposing as 2023. The rotation has a lot of question marks, and the lineup does not appear capable of matching the franchise record 860 runs scored last season.
“We’ve got a nice streak going, and we’d like to continue that,” Rays owner Stuart Sternberg said before the game. “The train keeps rolling. Don’t take any of it for granted. To be able to say we’ve got five consecutive postseason appearances — and the season before (that) 90 wins — is stunning in a lot of ways.
“People just assume it happens, (but) it doesn’t happen by magic. It happens because we’ve got some incredible people in this organization and we put a lot of faith in them.”
The Rays began last year with 13 consecutive wins, and they were 22 games over .500 by May 8. That historic start insulated them against the injuries that would eventually decimate the rotation, not to mention losing Franco in August when he was accused of an inappropriate relationship with a minor.
It was foolhardy to think the Rays could get off to a similar start in 2024, and now they’re officially playing from behind in the American League East.
Before the first pitch was ever thrown on Thursday, the Rays played highlights from last season on the video board in rightfield and another postseason banner was unveiled in the Trop’s rafters. Diaz led off the bottom of the first with a home run, and it felt like a party all over again.
At some point in 2023, the hot start finally came to an end and the realization hit home that the rest of the season would be one long plod toward October.
The plod just began a little earlier in 2024.
John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.
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