Six Nations predictions 2024: Tournament winner, top try scorer and player to watch
With the Six Nations upon us, Telegraph Sport’s team of rugby experts predict who will come out on top, their players to watch and what they are most looking forward to.
The opening game of the tournament in Marseille is likely to be the decider. It will be fascinating to see how both France and Ireland respond to the mental distress of their World Cup campaigns. France, at home, should be favourites, but they are without their talisman Antoine Dupont and playing in front of their own fans have more to lose. The pressure will stress test their coaching team – assembled to win the World Cup last year - like never before. Ireland must cope with ‘life after Johnny’, too, but might just have greater composure on the night to nick it. England in their rebuilding phase, and hit by injuries, will be impossible to predict, whereas Scotland, like France and Ireland, will be motivated by their World Cup disappointment, have a settled side and the advantage of playing France and England at Murrayfield.
Player of the tournament
Finn Russell (Scotland)
With no Johnny Sexton, Owen Farrell or Romain Ntamack around, this is Russell’s moment to stamp his authority as the play-maker of the championship and lay down a Lions marker.
Top try scorer
Damian Penaud (France)
He is the bookmakers’ favourite and it is hard to argue against, given his exquisite finishing and likely abundance of opportunities. But could Tommy Freeman burst onto the scene in a manner like Jacob Stockdale back in 2018? Well, he looks good value at 14-1.
Breakout star
Joe McCarthy (Ireland)
You knew by his impact off the bench during the final desperate minutes of Ireland’s World Cup quarter-final defeat by New Zealand that McCarthy had a big future ahead of him. At 6ft 6in and 120kg, he has the potential to be Ireland’s tighthead lock for the next decade.
Most looking forward to...
France on tour. They have been forced to take to the road because of the Olympics later this year and it should make for a brilliant opportunity to engage with more of their supporters and recreate a mini-World Cup atmosphere.
France
England
Ireland
Scotland
Wales
Italy
I suspect there may still be a few World Cup demons in both the French and Irish camps. Victory in Marseille would be the perfect way for France to exorcise those ghosts and provide the launchpad for another title. England’s fixtures fall very well for them to build momentum, although the trip to Murrayfield looms large.
Player of the tournament
Matthieu Jalibert (France)
Probably the in-form player coming into the Championship having been tearing it up for Bordeaux in recent weeks. His rivalry with Romain Ntamack, who is recovering from a knee injury, could run for years.
Top try scorer
Jamie George (England)
I suspect England’s attacking revolution will not be televised. Yet as the World Cup showed, Steve Borthwick’s side know how to maul with the best of them.
Breakout star
Joe McCarthy (Ireland)
Fear the mullet. The 22-year-old second row’s form and physicality might prove irresistible to Andy Farrell, who has kept largely the same group from the World Cup.
Most looking forward to...
France v Ireland. It is just too hard to look past the opening game on Friday night. The atmosphere in Marseille will be off the charts.
France
Ireland
Scotland
England
Wales
Italy
Marseille should determine the top spot, with Murrayfield on Feb 24 another defining fixture. Both will be fascinating games. Scotland also face France at home. Win that and they will be in the running for the championship.
Player of the tournament
Matthieu Jalibert (France)
Romain Ntamack is still returning from a knee injury and Antoine Dupont is, of course, pursuing his Olympic dream. Fabien Galthié will therefore pick Maxime Lucu at scrum-half and entrust Jalibert, another Bordeaux star, to lead things. Whatever happens, it will be captivating.
Top try scorer
Damian Penaud (France)
An extremely obvious and boring choice, but Penaud is a freakishly brilliant finisher. You can get Jamie George at 30-1 if you feel confident about England’s mauling.
Breakout star
Joe McCarthy (Ireland)
McCarthy, a marauding, muscular lock with a mullet and a spiteful streak, left many at Welford Road agape during Leinster’s recent win over Leicester Tigers. In his first Six Nations, having won a handful of caps, he will crash into the consciousness of those yet to watch him.
Most looking forward to...
The impact of newcomers. There is a sense of renewal in the first Six Nations that follows a World Cup. From Felix Jones and Gonzalo Quesada among the coaches to potential debutants such as Mackenzie Martin and Arron Reed, via a younger generation of referees in the wake of Wayne Barnes and Jaco Peyper retiring, different figures will enrich the tournament. That could make everything less predictable, too.
Ireland
France
Scotland
England
Wales
Italy
France are justifiably the bookmakers’ favourites for the title, and might even be looking at a grand slam given they also face England at home on the final day. But I just have a sneaking feeling Ireland could roll them over in Marseille on Friday. Perhaps France will miss Dupont more than Ireland miss Sexton? On va voir. Elsewhere, Scotland have a point to prove after the World Cup and the personnel to prove it.
Player of the tournament
Caelan Doris (Ireland)
If I am backing Ireland to win the title, I am going to have to back an Ireland player to go big. Caelan Doris is certainly big.
Top try scorer
Damian Penaud (France)
Not a very original pick but by far the most obvious candidate. Duhan van der Merwe or Dan Sheehan might push him.
Breakout star
Jack Crowley (Ireland)
‘Breakout star’ may be a bit much, given he already has nine Ireland caps and has steered Munster to URC success. But it has been hard for the wider world to look past Sexton. Massive shoes to fill. But again, based on the assumption Ireland go well, then Crowley is going to have to go well.
Most looking forward to...
France v Ireland on Friday night. New beginnings after World Cup heartache. What an opening fixture in Marseille.
France
Ireland
Scotland
England
Wales
Italy
This might sound odd but it is the middle of the pack that feels fascinating, because that outcome means trusting Scotland to beat Wales in Cardiff and England at Murrayfield. The talent is there to do both, but actually delivering? It is time for that group to do so. France have the best draw and, combined with Ireland’s Sexton-shaped hole, that settles top spot, while for Wales this is very much the start of a longer rebuild.
Player of the tournament
Damian Penaud (France)
Some players are just worth every minute of your time, such as Penaud, who has scored 11 tries over the past three Championships. France will not win another title without their pack and so big things are expected from Peato Mauvaka, Grégory Alldritt and Cameron Woki. But Penaud is magic.
Top try scorer
Damian Penaud (France)
There has not been a double player of the tournament-top try scorer winner since Jacob Stockdale for Ireland in 2018, when he scored seven times. In other words we are overdue, and Penaud fits the bill.
Breakout star
Nolann Le Garrec (France)
Having watched Le Garrec orchestrate a demolition of Sale in the Champions Cup about 18 months ago, the signs were there that France’s scrum-half depth is unfairly strong. Maxime Lucu will start but expect Le Garrec, just 21, to come off the bench and win matches.
Most looking forward to...
Seeing how teams fill big voids. France without Antoine Dupont, England without Owen Farrell, Ireland without Johnny Sexton, Wales without Dan Biggar... the start of a new cycle is a fascinating time and those four titans of Test rugby will be missed. How they handle their absences will decide the championship.
France
Ireland
England
Scotland
Italy
Wales
France to defeat Ireland on the opening weekend and romp to the title, banishing those World Cup demons; Ireland to be a narrow second. The rest is a bunfight: England have a torrid injury list but their astute coaching additions should atone for that. Italy, the unknown quantity, will beat someone; Wales look the most vulnerable.
Player of the tournament
Grégory Alldritt (France)
The post-World Cup sabbatical seems to have done the great French No 8 wonders. Alldritt returned for his club, La Rochelle, at the start of the year and has picked up exactly where he left off following that World Cup loss to the Springboks. There is no No 8 in the world who combines brains and brawn as well as Alldritt.
Top try-scorer
Damian Penaud (France)
The flailing Frenchman achieved this feat last year and, with his form for Bordeaux Bègles this season, it would take the bravest man to bet against a repeat
Breakout star
Emmanuel Meafou (France)
Is it lazy and obvious to select a 6ft 8in, 145kg behemoth who is likely to start (if fit) for the championship favourites as a breakout star? Probably, but Meafou is uncapped, so I am claiming the gargantuan Toulouse lock on a technicality. Meafou, far more than a big lump, might have zero caps now but he could star for years to come.
Most looking forward to...
A Tour de France. A clean sweep for l’hexagone. The Stade de France is out of action this year due to Paris’s hosting of the Olympics in the summer, so Les Bleus will host Ireland in Marseille, Italy in Lille and England in Lyon to finish the championship. Le Crunch always brings added spice but that vélodrome atmosphere, with Europe’s two best sides, will be virtually unbeatable in the rugby world.
France
Ireland
Scotland
England
Wales
Italy
It is a straight shootout between Ireland and France. With Johnny Sexton and Antoine Dupont no longer at the helm, you feel Ireland will be the more weakened beast away from home, leaving Les Bleus as the marginal favourites. Scotland have not won in Cardiff for 22 years but records are there to be broken - if they can get the dragon-shaped monkey off their backs, a third-placed finish should be within their reach and atone for their World Cup disappointment. With the rest it is a glorious dog fight, although England will have the edge over Wales. Italy will be a different proposition under Gonzalo Quesada, but no further down the road in their development.
Player of tournament
Bundee Aki (Ireland)
Expect Aki, a human tin-opener of a player, to pick up where he left off after being one of the standout performers at last year’s World Cup.
Top try scorer
Louis Bielle-Biarrey (France)
What can’t the kid do? With a World Cup now under the 20-year-old’s belt there is no reason why France’s scrum cap-clad winger can’t kick on and reach even loftier heights.
Breakout star
Nicolas Depoortère (France)
Depoortere, one of six uncapped players in Fabien Galthie’s squad, has been tearing up trees for some time at Bordeaux. A deceivingly robust centre and graduate of France’s under-20 system, he epitomises a new wave of young talent French rugby has at its disposal.
Most looking forward to...
How sides sink or swim with the loss of mercurial figures within their ranks.
