Shooting Variance Explains Bulk of NBA Playoff Outcomes
This is part of a series of NBA Data Nuggets that will be published every week throughout the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
Last month, we wrote about how making threes has never been more of a prerequisite for winning in the NBA than it was this regular season. Fourteen of the 16 playoff teams in 2024 were in the top half of the league in 3-point shooting percentage, and the two No. 1 seeds knocked down long balls at the two highest clips.
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The impact of shooting has carried over to the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Through May 16, teams with a higher 3-point shooting percentage than their opponents in games are 49-13 in the postseason, good for a winning percentage of 79%.
Research has shown that defenses have relatively little influence on opponents’ outside shooting percentages (at least compared to shots closer to the basket). It is important when analyzing the playoffs, therefore, to register that number in the box score before jumping to conclusions.
Jamal Murray’s improved health and a shift in Aaron Gordon’s role have contributed to the Denver Nuggets’ turnaround after losing their first two games at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but shooting has played a factor, too. Across Games 3, 4 and 5, Denver knocked down 22 of its 46 wide-open threes, versus just nine of 39 for Minnesota.
The ultimate recent example of shooting variance swinging a series was the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. The eighth-seeded Miami Heat jumped out to a surprising 3-0 series lead against the Boston Celtics, with the Heat making a whopping 48% of their threes and the Celtics making an uncharacteristically low 29%. When those percentages regressed toward their respective means, the Celtics ripped off three straight wins to tie the series 3-3, before Miami made 14 of its 28 threes in Game 7 to advance to the Finals.
Even compared with other important statistical categories, 3-point shooting is a strong predictor of playoff outcomes. For instance, teams that grab a higher percentage of offensive rebounds than their opponents are 43-20 in the postseason—not quite as heavy a correlation.
Shooting variance often has a bigger impact on the scoreboard than more salient factors, such as officiating. After all, teams rewarded with more free throws per field goal attempt than their opponents actually have a losing record (27-36) in the playoffs so far. Instead of blaming the referees when their teams lose, perhaps coaches should tell their players to make more shots.
More NBA Data Nuggets:
–Altitude Gives Nuggets Rarefied NBA Home-Court Advantage
–Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Is NBA’s Most Consistent Volume Scorer… Ever
–NBA Postseason Play Really Is Different
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