Sean Payton is a win away from being the Coach of the Year frontrunner
The New Orleans Saints have a storied history in battling adversity, but surmounting the 2021 NFL season might be head coach Sean Payton’s most remarkable feat yet. With all the team has endured as they enter the final week of the regular season, that they remain viable playoff contenders is astonishing. Quietly, Payton has had one of the most career-defining seasons of his tenure.
Losing your starting quarterback to a season-ending injury is typically the nail in the coffin for postseason aspirations. Even more so when the backup is recovering in concussion protocol. That’s without addressing the void that was always going to be impossible to fill; it was an uphill battle the moment Drew Brees suited up for his final season. Replacing a franchise quarterback who retires on his own terms is not without consequence for the team. Nor is it a process fit for a singular offseason. The quarterback battle that lasted all through training camp at times felt concerning. Others? A pointed exercise in due diligence. The question mark under center was always the paramount challenge – one certainly not solved nor aided by an injury carousel that saw New Orleans start four quarterbacks in one season.
The pandemic-afflicted salary cap and subsequent exodus of key depth players didn’t exactly help matters. Despite recording seven sacks in their Week 17 win over the Carolina Panthers, the Saints defensive line was a concern dating back to this summer; the first of several offseason blows was an unexpected six-game suspension for starting defensive tackle David Onyemata. That was hard to swallow following the departures of Trey Hendrickson, Sheldon Rankins, Malcolm Brown, and other key players in the trenches. Vacating about $100 million in cap space doesn’t happen by cutting fringe players. Key playmakers like Hendrickson, Rankins, Emmanuel Sanders, and Janoris Jenkins were always going to be casualties. It was the utter loss of foundation at nearly every unit that flew under the radar but had a lasting effect.
Alvin Kamara has been the healthiest option in the backfield for New Orleans, and he’s missed four games. No one foresaw the crippling challenges along the offensive line. It’s hard to not think Latavius Murray would’ve not only been crucial on the depth chart, but invaluable in his blocking abilities. Something former Saints tight end Josh Hill was touted for – until he eventually retired over the offseason after following Dan Campbell to Detroit. The one stroke of luck the Saints have had was in re-signing Kwon Alexander, but the linebacker situation all summer was another ambiguity. Particularly when rookie Pete Werner missed a substantial portion of camp due to injury.
Perhaps the biggest unknown this past offseason was the status of Michael Thomas. Not exactly ideal to hold a quarterback competition and move on from a 15-year starter without the receiver who was the first look for every backup who played in relief for Brees over the past few seasons. As much as fans gripe about Jared Cook’s time in New Orleans, he was third in reception yards last season and led the team with 7 touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders was second only to Alvin Kamara in both yards and receptions. To add insult to injury, Latavius Murray ranked sixth highest in team receptions last year, followed by Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris – the de facto WR1 and WR2 this season.
A dominant discussion, validly so, has centered on the lack of attention paid to the receiver position. One might forget that all summer, potential disciplinary action from the NFL in the form of suspension loomed over Marshon Lattimore. Those felony charges would eventually be dropped, but there was concern that he could miss the start of the season; the spotlight on CB2 in the absence of Jenkins magnified tenfold. Then Patrick Robinson abruptly retired. Then Ken Crawley got injured. Justifiably, they prioritized cornerback accordingly. They just got lucky – or unlucky – that the acquisition of Bradley Roby was superfluous. That the Saints have started a third-round rookie cornerback who didn’t play a down last season and the transition has been seamless is criminally under-recognized.
Then Hurricane Ida made landfall back in August as a Category 4 storm and caused the team to abruptly evacuate to Dallas for a month. While their accommodations were certainly more satisfactory than at a college level, I was similarly displaced with the Tulane University football team as their sideline reporter. As told on the team’s experience by Amie Just of NOLA.com, much like Tulane players, the Saints were displaced into chaotic lodging with families and dogs with little to no notice. While Payton is no stranger to this situation, not one player remains from the 2006 season. It’s not exactly comparable, but it’s not an irrelevant factor. Especially amid a quarterback competition cut short by the cancelled final preseason game.
That was all before the season started. Since then, New Orleans broke the NFL record for fielding the most starters in a single season, saw their top-flight offensive line implode with the starting five playing a total of 22 snaps together this season, had to start a fourth-round developmental quarterback in a playoff-altering game with 22 players sidelined by COVID-19, learned Michael Thomas would be out for the season, and lost their starting quarterback in Week 8 to an injury.
Here’s the kicker: losing Wil Lutz might’ve been the biggest blow of all. One might remember Brees’ late-game heroics in thrilling victories over the last few seasons, but Lutz was often the player in the clutch. In 2018, the Saints went 13-3. They narrowly beat the Browns 21-18 with Zane Gonzalez missing two field goals for Cleveland and Lutz kicking a 44-yard field goal with 21 seconds left. In their 43-37 overtime win against the Falcons, Lutz’s 13 points were the only reason they got there. They beat Baltimore 24-23 with Lutz scoring 6 points – and Ravens kicker Justin Tucker missing the first extra point of his NFL career. In a rare game with no touchdowns from Brees, Lutz nailed two field goals to win 12-9 over the Panthers. When they beat the Steelers 31-28 to clinch home field advantage for the playoffs, it came on a final-minute touchdown after Lutz recorded 7 points. That 13-3 record easily flips to 8-8, where the Saints miss the playoffs conceding the tiebreaker to Atlanta.
For the sake of brevity, there were 5 similar wins in the 2019 season in which Lutz was crucial – including a 58-yard field goal as time expired against the Texans to win the first season opener for the team since 2013, and the 12-10 victory against Dallas scored entirely by Lutz was the first win since 1998 to feature no touchdowns. That record equally flips to 8-8. There were three wins last season, two in overtime, that played out similar, and their three-point loss to Philadelphia with Taysom Hill under center saw Lutz miss two field goals. The final years of Brees’ career went 13-3 in consecutive seasons and ended with 12-4. Hard to imagine his legacy would remain unaltered by those three seasons swinging back to the years of 7-9.
The kicker position all season has been as unstable as the receiving group – and just as if not more costly. New Orleans lost back-to-back games to the Falcons and Titans, both narrow two-point victories. The team has a separate two-point conversion problem, but the latter game in Tennessee was decided by then-kicker Brian Johnson missing both extra points. A trio of Johnson, Aldrick Rosas, and Cody Parkey missed a combined three field goals and five extra points this season. Things have since stabilized with Brett Maher, who was actually the first kicker to be signed over the summer but waived with an injury settlement. He singlehandedly defeated Tampa Bay with all 9 points scored on field goals, and his four field goals against Carolina gave the Saints a crucial lead to hold on until the late touchdown.
New Orleans is not the first, nor will it be the last, team to be decimated by injury. They’re likely the only team who’s dealt with a multitude of natural disasters. The wide receiver room is the only unit the team can be faulted for; one can only be so culpable in not leaving any leeway for an unprecedented pandemic. They’re not the first team to traverse the pitfalls of replacing a longtime franchise quarterback.
But they may be the first to start four quarterbacks the immediate season following after losing their starter in Week 8; behind an injury-riddled offensive line missing both starting tackles and left guard; while battling extraneous factors like Covid-19 and its ripple effect on salary cap and roster; be without their top receiver for the second consecutive season; endure a five-game losing streak with their QB3; and yet, have a strong possibility of making the playoffs with a final win against the Falcons.
For perspective, the Denver Broncos went 6-10 following Elway’s retirement in 1999 and didn’t win another playoff game until 2005. Steve Young retired unexpectedly following a concussion in 1999; the 49ers went 6-10 in 2000 and struggled for years until Jim Harbaugh arrived. Troy Aikman had a great supporting cast and retired on top in 2000. Dallas went 5-11 the next year and floundered until Tony Romo. After going 6-10 following Jim Kelly’s retirement in 1996, the Buffalo Bills had a 17-year postseason drought until Josh Allen showed up in 2018.
In order for New Orleans to make the postseason, it’s as simple as beating Atlanta and hoping the Los Angeles Rams don’t lose a sixth straight game to San Francisco. There’s a world where those back-to-back two-point losses swing the team’s record from 8-8 to 10-6, potentially an 11th win if they were able to field even half the 22 players out against Miami. Frankly, whether they make the playoffs feels almost irrelevant in light of circumstances. All things considered, the Saints should be falling apart at the seams. The primary if not paramount factor is their head coach and organizational culture.
As the season winds down, annual awards for individual accolades take center stage – and last bids for Coach of the Year. The frontrunners are rather obvious, as tends to be the case, and the award is often decided by a trifecta of free agency, healthy rosters, and luck. A coach hasn’t won it with a losing record since Jimmy Johnson in 1990 with Dallas, and no one since had more than 6 losses. But there’s a common thread in those victors: overcoming circumstances and adversity. Much like Payton when he won the award in the 2006 season after Hurricane Katrina. Unless you’re the Rams, there’s no quick fixes in football – and their case study in ignoring the draft remains to be seen as a viable strategy. But after the past two seasons dictated by a life-altering pandemic and consequently affecting team abilities to draft, at what point does perseverance through adversity take precedence? At what point is the value of coaching highest when the going is chaotic and rough?
People might validly point to the five-game losing streak, failing to anoint Brees’ successor before his retirement, inattention to receiving depth, and no postseason guarantee as immediate disqualifiers; dominance and wins more often than not rewarded. If you ask the players, a great coach is almost everything but records and playoff berths. Eight players (including Demario Davis) were asked the three most important qualities in an NFL head coach amidst the disruption of the 2020 season. Of the 24 traits listed, only three pointed to scheme, detailed in the playbook, and knowledge of the game. Five valued listening, flexibility and communication, three named connectivity and gaining player trust, four pointed to honesty, three highlighted leadership, and the rest emphasized consistency, sound competitive spirit, organization and staff assembly, philosophy, and will to win.
Barely if any mention of the Xs and Os, and nearly all value placed on leadership, organizational function and philosophy, a sense of stability, communication, competitiveness, and a will to win that starts at the top. While undoubtedly correlated with winning records, coaching is most meaningful between the lines and within a strong team culture. There are several other coaches who have surmounted similar blows like Mike Vrabel on the Tennessee Titans, impressive organizational turnarounds by the likes of Nick Sirianni of the Eagles, Zac Taylor in Cincinnati, and Kliff Kingsbury with the Cardinals. There’s also the case of the Houston Texans. While one player shy of the record set by New Orleans, Houston has started 56 players and comparatively are 4-12; as did the 2019 Miami Dolphins who fared 5-11. Besides Baltimore, teams that have played three quarterbacks this season have all lost 10 or more games. Not one of those teams was moving on from a 15-year starter, and not one reached four quarterbacks.
Barring the Titans this season and 49ers last year, it’s hard to think of any recent team more decimated by injuries to key players of this magnitude, let alone start four kickers and four quarterbacks. Yet, Sean Payton’s name is rarely even mentioned in passing in Coach of the Year discussions. Some circumstances are controllable, but to mitigate an avalanche of staggering uncontrollable factors with competitiveness, consistency and culture should be what dictates greatness. There’s little to no shot of the underdog winning the highest award, much like Wild Card teams rarely reach the Super Bowl. But if the Saints can persevere and win out, Sean Payton has a uniquely compelling case for Coach of the Year.
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