Scouts and execs weigh in on what Mets could get for Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander at trade deadline

At the halfway mark of the season, after another exasperating loss on Thursday night at Citi Field, the Mets are nine games under .500 and it's going to take a lot to get back into contention for a Wild Card spot.

As such, the possibility the Mets become sellers at the trade deadline is becoming more likely, a hard reality that owner Steve Cohen essentially admitted was a possibility during his press conference Wednesday.

With that in mind, Max Scherzer’s solid six-inning start in the 3-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers was the only real noteworthy development on a night when the offense again failed to hit much at all, especially in the clutch.

If the Mets weren’t playing so poorly in various phases of the game, Scherzer’s return to form lately might offer reason to believe in a second-half resurgence.

Instead, for the moment, it only raises the question: does it make him more or less likely to be traded?

Cohen officially opened that door Wednesday when he said he wouldn’t chase a turnaround at the trading deadline if the Mets don’t go on a run by then, while giving the impression that he’d be willing to sell instead.

Problem is, due to various long-term contracts, age, and poor performance, the Mets realistically don’t have much to trade of great value other than David Robertson.

That said, I’m leaving three big names out of that blanket evaluation.

First, forget Pete Alonso; it wouldn’t make sense to trade one of the best power hitters in baseball in his prime years, especially when Cohen likely wants to lock up the 28-year old first baseman as he heads for free agency after next season.

And then there are Scherzer and Justin Verlander. That’s where the real intrigue lies because of their age, their high-priced contracts, and their sparkling resumes as winners of multiple Cy Young Awards.

To get a sense of what their value might be on the trade market, I spoke to five people with some expertise on the matter -- two scouts, two assistant GMs, and one Mets person.

What I found most noteworthy was the consensus opinion that trading either Scherzer or Verlander wouldn’t bring back the type of prospect haul the Mets -- or at least their fans -- might expect, even if Cohen is willing to eat a major portion of one of their contracts.

“Nobody’s giving up top-flight young pitching for an aging starter who would come with questions about injury and performance,” was the way one team executive put it. “Even Steve Cohen’s not going to eat $40 to $50 million for a mediocre return. I don’t see either guy getting traded, even if they’re willing to waive their no-trade.”

Yes, any deal would have to start with Scherzer of Verlander agreeing to be moved. Both have one more year on their contracts at $43 million per, with a full no-trade clause, and one person with insight into the situation believes Scherzer would be the more likely of the two to waive the no-trade.

The person’s feeling is that Scherzer would be more inclined to jump at the right opportunity to try to win another championship, where Verlander has more reason to stay in New York, in part due to his wife’s modeling career, in part due to a strong relationship with Cohen and the belief the owner will do whatever it takes for the Mets to win in 2024.

After Thursday’s loss, meanwhile, Scherzer reiterated what he told SNY’s Andy Martino a day earlier, that he’ll wait to comment until it’s more than speculation.

“I’ll comment when Steve says ‘sell,’ Scherzer told reporters. “Until then it’s pointless.”

When a reporter followed up, Scherzer became more forceful with his answer.

“Steve drives this,” he said. “So it’s pointless for me to talk about anything in the contract. I’m here to win, that’s all I’m here to do. And continue to believe we’re going to win.”

As to the question of value, the scouts and execs were in agreement that for either Scherzer and Verlander to stir genuine interest, Cohen would have to be willing to eat a huge portion of the remaining contract.

“Next year is the problem,’’ one of the execs said. “Maybe a team like the Dodgers, that has some (pitching) injuries, would take Scherzer this year and pay him $10 million of the 15-to-20 he’ll be owed by the deadline. He was great for them a couple of years ago. But with all of their young pitching they’re not going to want him next year at anything other than an absolute bargain.

“Cohen would have to eat $30 million or more of that $43 million next year, plus $10 million this year, and maybe the Dodgers would take him. Or maybe a team like Texas. But I can’t see Cohen eating that much of the contract for a 'B' prospect or two.

“The Dodgers just aren’t giving up one of their top pitching prospects. No team is going to be willing to do that. Young pitching is too valuable in today’s game. So at that point it would make more sense for the Mets to keep those guys and hope for the best for one more year.”

The other exec essentially concurred, except for dropping the prospect grade a notch.

“I’d say they’d get more like a ‘C’ prospect,” the exec said. “Scherzer has been pretty solid but every team would be worried about him breaking down physically. He’s had a lot of injuries the last couple of years. He broke down in the postseason for the Dodgers and he looked like he was out of gas at the end of last season for the Mets.

“Whether it’s Scherzer or Verlander, you’re talking about older pitchers that would need a lot of extra rest down the stretch with no guarantee they’ll be dominant in October. I just don’t see how it makes sense for the Mets to trade one of those guys for what they’d have to pay and then get in return.”

The scout and the Mets person, meanwhile, made the case that Scherzer has pitched well enough lately that he ought to pique the interest of a team that has championship hopes.

“His season numbers are ok but you have to take a look beyond them,” the Mets person said. “If you’re watching closely you know he’s been very good for weeks now except for the couple of starts where his slider was out of whack.”

Scherzer’s game log supports that notion. Other than the back-to-back starts against the Atlanta Braves and Yankees a few weeks ago, when he kept paying for hanging sliders, the three-time Cy Young winner has been mostly dominant.

In seven starts sandwiched around the two bad ones, in fact, Scherzer has pitched to a 1.60 ERA, allowing eight earned runs in 45 innings. For the season he is 7-2 with a 3.87 ERA.

“Don’t get me wrong, those two bad starts were costly,” the Mets person said. “But if you listened to his explanation, it was all about a slider grip change related to his changeup. And when he made the fix he went back to pitching well.”

Finally, the scout largely agreed and said, “I think he’d definitely help a contender. But I understand the concern about age and injury, especially the way he finished the last two seasons. I’d want him on my team but I can see why teams wouldn’t give up a top prospect, regardless of the money.

“I’m sure the Mets would love to move one of those guys, but it’s hard to see how Scherzer and Verlander aren’t both back next year. It’s just the reality of their age and the money the owner agreed to pay them.”